I think you're wrong, in the same way that folks on HN were wrong about Dropbox–HN: why would I pay for something that provides so little value, it's just slightly more convenient file storage?
Just because open source models are almost as good, doesn't mean you can underestimate the convenience factor.
Both can be true: we're in an AI bubble, and the large incumbents will capture most of the value/be difficult to unseat.