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bwanab

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AI 2040: Plan A 9 days ago

I'm confused. In the original comment I pointed out that the article claims AI is a major topic when polls show that isn't the case. I still believe that in 2028 AI will not be a major topic as shown by polls and voting behavior.

I'm not sure how I'd formulate the bet, but maybe it could be "as of election day 2028, AI will not be a top five concern mentioned in the most recent open-ended poll by Gallup polling the American public. This bet will not be decided by a poll in which AI is specifically mentioned in the polling question."

AI 2040: Plan A 11 days ago

Yes, I can't predict the future, but if it were a bet on Kalshi I'd be willing to put my money on the AI won't make the list side.

It is indeed wrong if it were trying to show a list of people who have helped humanity, but that is clearly not what it was intended to show. The specifically define what they're showing as market value of company a founder created minus the amount that the founder took out of the company. In so doing, it downgrades Elon Musk considerably presumably because he's retained so much of the shares of his companies.

AI 2040: Plan A 11 days ago

The other thing about this article is that it contains falsifiable claims that are, well, false. Consider the following direct quote: "The 2028 election cycle is heated, as usual. AI is the biggest topic." No poll of the American public has AI as one of the top concerns except in polls where the question is specifically about AI. The general polls show topics like healthcare costs, inflation/affordability, government dysfunction, and immigration as the top concerns. AI doesn't even show up in the top 20 in every list I looked at (Gallup, Pew, YouGov).

It sounds more like "everybody I know thinks AI is the top concern" when everybody they know is people like them, i.e. an echo chamber. It gives me no confidence in any other claims.

In my now long lifetime, I can't tell you how many times I've heard the phrase "This time it really is different" for it to turn out that it really wasn't all that different. Maybe this time it is, but I'd put my bet on isn't.

It's different for different people. The air purifier method suggested works for me, but any fan is better than no fan.

Presumably, if they're sitting at 20-30% occupancy, somebody (like the developer) is going to be having trouble paying their bank loans. You understand what happens next? (hint: prices plummet). If that isn't happening then your diagnosis of the problem is very likely wrong.

So which is it?

It can easily be both statements are true. And a quick look at Zillow's data on Phoenix shows a huge run up in prices from 2015, but a leveling and interesting looking drop happening over the past year. The article certainly could have described this with a bit more elegance than it did.

The logic of the article is that people want more housing up to the point in which existing owners become terrified at the prospect of losing their equity and demand action. The logic is bizarre because the behavior its trying to describe is bizarre. Economy's are extremely complicated feedback loops and housing is part of the economy.

My step-father taught shop for over 30 years at the 7th-9th grade level using all the tools you mention. I can't recall a single serious accident under his watch. Not to mention, at his funeral, you'd be shocked at how many of his former students came to pay their respects. Many talked about how it had changed their lives irrespective of the fields they worked in as adults.

Further not to mention, I'm sitting next to two Appalachian dulcimers that were among the 100s he built in the 70s and 80s.

At least in the US, as long as the charging infrastructure is no better than it is, if you're planning on taking any long trips and you want to do it in an EV, I don't see any alternative to Tesla. And, yes, I know that other brands can now use designated Superchargers and maybe that's enough, but given how few those designations are I doubt it.

Interesting for a group who's stock in Tesla has appreciated > 3 times since the start of 2023, but I digress....

My question: from the article: "fewer than 500 miles between critical disengagement...".

I don't think I've ever gone more than 50 miles between critical disengagement - and that's on the open highway.

Yes, Basil II had the unfortunate legacy of not leaving an heir at a very bad time. The Romans of the Eastern Empire had their problems but mostly just a continuation of the old Empire: dynastic jealousy and external enemies. As enfeebled as their last 300 years were, they were pretty unique in having lasted almost 2 millennium.

One has to wonder about this kind of turnaround that happened simultaneously with Blackberry's corporate implosion which were mostly due to the same exogenous factors.

I came here to say the same. Having recently moved to VT, FPF has been a real eye opener in terms of civil, useful local discourse. I don't think it's in the DNA of people in Vermont since the local subreddits for VT and communities are just as weird as they are other places I've looked at.

While I disagree with your verdict, those are all valid points. I don't think stagflation can really be pinned on him, though.

I lived in the Knoxville/Oak Ridge TN area at the time. Under Carter the TVA had built full working house demonstrations of solar, geothermal, and passive cooling homes. They were all cancelled shortly after the 80 election.

As a software developer, I completely agree.

As a person who's often tasked with building reports for presentation, and more often, for passing on to analysts to expand on, I find that notebooks give a much more accessible workflow than other options. Excel is way too limiting, most of the downstream analysts aren't software devs and don't have, know, or want to know an IDE. Notebooks give a way to combine graphs, text and code (show your work) in a concise form.

As a child of Appalachia, I suggest that we all compromise on you'ens, or as it's commonly pronounced yinz.

Only two ways that I know of that can make it work: 1) one parent needs to stay at home, or 2) hire a nanny. Both of those come with considerable costs.

Part of the problem here is that not everyone has the same weekend arrangement. To work with that you need flexibility which causes UI complexity.

Probably not actually ICBM:

"Two U.S. officials also told CBS News that Russia had fired a ballistic missile, not an ICBM on Thursday, with one saying it appeared to have been an intermediate range ballistic missile launched from just east of Volgograd, Russia, to target Dnipro. If accurate, that would be a flight path of about 500 miles."