botacode

Fascinating, had not seen this research thank you for sharing.

This will save a lot of lives! Hope it passes.

The shift is a relic of an older economy and damages folks' lives through worse mental health and driving outcomes [0].

[0] https://www.coveragecat.com/blog/daylight-saving-time-car-in...

My understanding is that this remains unsettled law. We've added a disclaimer after seeing the big players (OAI, Ant) do the same and focus on ensuring LLMs get things right / outperforms those less specialized tools.

It is a commodity product but, again, the regulatory and capital hurdles to get started are significant. As you scale you need more and the exact reserve requirements are often at the discretion of regulators. Opening a McDonalds franchise it is not.

See for example the minimums here: https://www.insurance.ca.gov/0250-insurers/0300-insurers/010....

The capital requirements and regulatory barriers to start an insurer are extremely high.

A touch of nuance from someone in the industry (CTO at a startup that sells home and umbrella insurance):

Most of the issues here stem from problem the sales as opposed to the claims process. Customers are, structurally, under-educated on what their policies actually cover and this produces unrealistic expectations about what they should file claims for.

Emphatically, this is not their fault but an industry-wide issue that has complex causes like brokers/salespeople getting increasingly squeezed to produce as well as the intense time pressure under which many folks purchase their homeowners insurance policy (folks are often sprinting to check this box to secure a mortgage). Sadly, there is also a strong correlation between consumers experiencing worse socioeconomic conditions and failed claims. This, to me, generally suggests that some behavioral insights should be brought into the sale and management of the financial product to better protect these buyers' interests.

It is important to highlight and understand this point of failure because: 1) claims (even failed ones) are one of the easiest ways to get your rates jacked up as this is a category that insurers are allowed to price on. 2) The common response to articles like this is that "of course insurance should cover more things" but this counterintuitively risks creating more dead-weight loss for consumers broadly in the form of coverage for things that we simply shouldn't be insuring (and instead should be maintaining and replacing).

All that is to say: ask your broker / agent what's in your contract. Do it BEFORE you have a claim to file as in some cases speaking to them (especially captive agents) may in and of itself trigger a claim.

AI-native brokerages (like what we've built) are part of the solution to this problem since well-constrained LLMs can help buyers and users get a much better sense of what their contracts actually cover, and whether or not they should submit a claim.

There is significant value to reducing pollution (in human health and flourishing).

That said, GP comment is intellectually dishonest. It doesn't account for the negative externalities of his choices/politics that, as you correctly identify, are tied to his values.

Great to see more insurance hype! We've been working on AI to solve the consumer search problem in the industry for the past 3 (almost 4) years and it's great to see the big labs getting their hands dirty and building tools for practitioners in the space.

More industry exposure to well-managed agentic experiences will create oodles of opportunities to reduce premiums for consumers and offput some inflation-driven increases in cost of coverage.

Agreed. Discussions like these always remind me of some great research on how the destruction of the old, more averaged, and less targeted infosphere used to support significantly more political cohesion.

https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/postbroadcast-democracy... - absolute banger

The advice here is good, and I'm a big believer that the cream (e.g., sincerity and real opinions) rises to the top for writing. Still, think folks dunk on these types of writing automation tools too much when, for many, they can be a gateway drug to consistent posting and finding your online voice.

That is to say, the whole post is a bit of an internet old-head complaint. Reminds me of baby boomers complaining about a "decline" in homeownership and having children without acknowledging the massive shifts in the economic accessibility that support these milestones.

It's easy to write a post like this when you've already built a following because you started when social media was a greenfield experience. It's much harder when you have to compete for signal while being pressured to build a brand and perform at your day job.

What other habits besides flossing are shown to reduce the microbiome diversity?

"In further analyses, the researchers found that, for cancer patients, whether their HDHP had a health savings accounts (HSAs) did not make a difference."

Load just makes LLMs behave less deterministically and likely degrade. See: https://thinkingmachines.ai/blog/defeating-nondeterminism-in...

They don't have to be malicious operators in this case. It just happens.

Excellent, level headed, read that appropriately acknowledges that we live in a world ultimately bounded by physics that (at some point) no amount of money or human attention can overcome.

It is very unclear if fusses are real at this stage of the AI hype cycle or just driven by increasing Twitter group think.

Give it a few weeks.

This is a great perspective, and one that I've come around to after years of being anxious about being perceived online.

The shift has been very rewarding and has opened up tons of opportunities and partnerships both personally and for my startup.

The snark:signal ratio section rings very true.

For the more LLM-pilled would also recommend reading the Gwern piece on writing online: https://gwern.net/llm-writing

Two good ones my gf took here: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/gb-cc_my-desperate-attempt-to...

The second one is from the inside of the observatory (89th floor). Folks with media passes were allowed to get closer so that's the crowd you see pictured. He's climbing in the background.

Wonder if you could reconstruct synthetic versions of Gsearch with archive pages. I'd guess SEO/SEM companies have the data to build a small version of this and track the changes over time.

Yes, this. I got 50k and will never be made whole for my acute or lifelong pain.

I had an ace attorney who told me there were no assets to recover beyond the insurance settlement at the minimum limit provided.

My health insurer at the time later tried to take the settlement from me via predatory collections tactics, and I was only able to keep it due to California state laws that protected me if I wasn't made whole (I wasn't hit there but am a citizen of the state).

Most accidents are caused by folks on the lower end of the SES spectrum so a very large number of victims end up like me.

You also don't hear that much of our stories because the dead and the maimed often tell no tales / it's unpleasant to hear. Many settlements also require silence.

Great article that concretizes a lot of intuitions I've had while vibe coding in Elixir.

We don't 100% AI it but this very much matches our experience, especially the bits about defensiveness.

Going to do some testing this week to see if a better agents file can't improve some of the author's testing struggles.

A hacker seeking to change a political system-- independent of alignment-- would be well advised to take an approach that is almost the exact inverse of this project's.

The research on getting people to change political attitudes or engage in pro-social political behaviors says that public shame, especially amongst their friends/communities/families, is the most effective lever available.

So, instead of making a list of everyone who believes in $prosocial_behaviors_and_policies create a publicly searchable, and verifiable database of folks engaged in $anti_social_behaviors_and_policies that are destructive to the their communities.

Better transparency into where everyone stands helps to prevent toxic policies and rhetoric that poison the commons and allows communities (teammates, employers, friends, and family-- both present and future) to then apply social pressure or the threat of ostracism in order to generate meaningful change.

There's a reason that bad actors (of all stripes and political affiliations) fear transparency! It's a highly effective tool for aligning behavior with societal/community values.

Getting a 403 when I try to read. Anyone have a backup link?

This is a really cool small scale experiment. More of this type of work is need so we can have fairer and more transparent search options.

I'd be curious to see the sensitivity of the ratings to things like rater composition (is it a quirk of Redditors they like Bing better?) and search topics.

Also makes me wonder how much of the ratings rank to do with a decline in quality (or diversification/drift away from the Redditor vector) of Google's own search raters (the index is heavily influenced by manual rating).

Counterpoint 1: the gitlab founder going "founder mode" on his cancer: https://centuryofbio.com/p/sid

Counterpoint 2: the findings that happiness doesn't really level off in an S-curve shape (i.e., fewer diminishing marginal returns than expected to wealth) https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2020-43605-001.

"Is there a growing class divide in happiness? Among U.S. adults ages 30 and over in the nationally representative General Social Survey (N = 44,198), the positive correlation between socioeconomic status (SES; including income, education, and occupational prestige) and happiness grew steadily stronger between the 1970s and 2010s. Associations between income and happiness were linear, with no tapering off at higher levels of income. Between 1972 and 2016, the happiness of high-SES White adults was fairly stable, whereas the happiness of low-SES White adults steadily declined. Among Black adults, the happiness of low-SES adults was fairly stable, whereas the happiness of high-SES adults increased. Thus, the happiness advantage favoring high-SES adults has expanded over the decades. Age–period–cohort analyses based on hierarchical linear modeling demonstrate that this effect is primarily caused by time period rather than by birth cohort or age. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2020 APA, all rights reserved)"

Nope! Startup founder who happened to be visiting Taiwan at the right time.

The Googlers had way better views XD

They kept most folks pretty far away, you needed a pass or to work in one of the offices to get really close.

I was also terrified when ppl would engage with him directly lol

To be fair here (and I say this as someone who's had a spinal fusion as the result of being mowed down by a distracted driver) car ownership is so incredibly subsidized from an insurance perspective that any increase in prices should be described as the removal/reduction of a subsidy.

If the damages/externalities caused by cars were internalized by the system car ownership would already be unaffordable for most. We just choose to sacrifice/maim X-number of humans every year so folks can continue to zoom around and structurally increase sprawl/pollution (which in turn have their own massive un-internalized costs).

All of us pay for these subsidies via significantly higher healthcare prices.

Look up what happened to the Michigan laws/policies that required drivers to actually pay for insurance that would compensate accident victims for their death and suffering. It was lobbied/voted out of existence almost immediately because the costs are simply too high, and we love our cars.

An extremely dark pattern.

This, combined with the recent changes to how 'Ads' are displayed in the iOS store (almost unrecognizable from non-advertised apps at this point since they dropped the background) suggest that Apple is getting more and more aggressive about juicing it's users for revenue in tasteless ways.

We had the privilege to watch at first from the SE corner of the building and later as he climbed by the the observation deck on the 89th floor. Hair raising stuff I'll never forget.

The _actual_ threat to the programmer as a career has little to do with AI and a lot to do with the looming decline in global growth which will continue to destroy opportunities for devs to thrive.

To frame this in terms of falsifiable-ish predictions as the article requests (won't add numbers cause I don't have time to research).

- Dev productivity will improve with AI, but there will be fewer programming jobs because there will just be lower growth overall with the coming debt-overhang slowdown.

- The fraction of un/under-employed programmers as a percentage of total devs will continue to increase. We're at an all time high for number of devs worldwide and this will continue until the economy structurally re-adjusts.

- Employment in the sector will see even more "insider" vs "outsider" dynamics with a resurgence in the relative value of connections and seniority.

FWIW none of these are novel, just aggregated

Investors and markets have regularly rewarded layoffs and will continue to do so as growth stories become fewer and further between. AI (incredible though it is as a tool) is just the fig-leaf/cover for this transition to be framed as a growth and efficiency story that ennobles insiders even further. The implication will be that some devs are just more skilled at using these new tools/being insightful about business and therefore their continued employment is justified while the outsiders are just unskilled. While this will be true for a small percentage (as it is now!), it will be really mostly be access/restrictive guild dynamics at play driving the shift.