People keep forgetting that over the last 6+ months a lot of increased action has been taken by OpenAI and Anthropic to detect and combat distillation. Several are public known.
Combined with how short of a time Fable was around before K3 got released. I do not see how the data Moonshot is supposed to extract in such a short notice, that will enhance the model to such a point.
It sounds to me a lot of cope from the US, so they can give this as a reason to ban Kimi models from the market.
OpenAI/Anthropic their advantages used to be:
* Early growth advantage
* Access to a lot of client data to train upon
* Access to a lot of hardware to train upon
Several of those advantages have been eroded over time. That barrier has been shrinking. The US is not the only spot with a bunch of smart people (ironical seeing how many Chinese work in US R&D).
Thing is, even IF they distilled from Fable and got the model so trained up, it means that K3 is a base for future model development. The cat is already out of the bag with how good the model is. When the model gets released on the 27'th, any Chinese company will be able to train their models against K3 openly.
We are not in the past anymore, where DeepSeek was a unexpected hit, but where the Frontier models their advantages (compute, data, growth) prevented more Chinese models from growing.