Speculation: Cheapest AI inference supply chain will win. Chips and energy. The chinese have made large investments in nuclear that will take decades for the US to follow and US has Chip supply chains that will take a few years for the Chinese to follow.
We are probably at the 3T to 5T parameter models which are good enough for disruption.Given the supply chains we can probably expect paced improvements, unless somebody comes up with better training methodologies or mathematics.