allovernow

They have collected legitimate reports from e.g. the news.

It's no less legitimate than a bunch of links on a Wikipedia page. Don't be lazy and dismiss this because you don't like the political leaning of zerohedge.

Russian disinformation site

But we're just going to believe everything out of China without a second thought right now?

Everything in that link, all the suspicious relationships, all the published research (arrested smugglers have published on coronavirus very recently) is verifiable. Don't be lazy.

I'm on mobile so I don't have time to collate a bunch of sources for something you could search for online, so here's a link to a summary.

NOTE: before you dismiss the source, notice that it is merely a commentary on a collection of individual sources that you can verify yourself. Now I do not agree with the conclusion in the link below, that this is a deliberate bioweapon, but there is ample circumstantial evidence here to at least presume that the virus could have leaked from the only level 4 biolab in China, which happens to be less than 10 miles from Wuhan. It's likely they were conducting legitimate research, all I'm pointing out is that the evidence for this actually coming from China is pretty good.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/did-china-steal-coron...

Both. Folk medicine is extremely common in China and the idea is that certain body parts from certain animals cure ailments/improve performance. Total backwards voodoo bullshit - like suppliments and crystals and homeopathy in the west, except animals are literally tortured over it.

There's a reason you can find so many videos online of Chinese people torturing animals. There is a belief in China (and to a lesser extent in other nations like Korea and I believe Vietnam) that making animals suffer pre slaughter makes the meat tastier. And honestly it isn't a stretch that adrenal hormones released just before death can influence the flavor or texture of meat, but I don't know if that justifies cruelty...

How the hell is this anything comparable to blackface?

You are a plain fool if you don't understand that the CCP literally sets the narrative out of China, imposed with force. Tow the line or, at best, lose social credit points, at worst enjoy your permanent stay at gulag.

The Soviet Union only collapsed some 30 years ago. The CCCP was literally the model that the CCP is based on. Don't be naive.

There is legitimate evidence of Canadian researchers working on coronaviruses in bats smuggling something to the Wuhan lab. Arrests were made a month before people across the world were taking the virus seriously.

Also the lab in Wuhan has leaked at least one SARS strain in the past.

They're no more responsible for the virus

Do you understand the conditions of the ubiquitous meat markets in China? Do you realize how easy it is for pathogens to spread when you stack wild animals in cages on top of each other, torture and butcher literally everything, wild animals off the street, in open air and on the literal ground?

The reality is that most of China is third world. Sorry, sometimes specific cultural practices are harmful to people and societies.

I don't know that I'd go that far but there is definitely a lot of influence, indirect mostly, and direct for those operating within China of course.

I can't find the % value but the stake that tencent owns in Reddit is a little concerning. That's a lot of propaganda potential.

Unbelievable that people are still not only buying the numbers but downvoting too.

Decades of easy living in the US has made the average native dangerously naive.

China is most likely going through a second wave of the infection either now or soon, as people return to work out of necessity to prevent supply shortages and food insecurity. Notice how they've totally locked everything down online - the internet was awash with leaked videos and tweets from people inside of china - but the government has clamped down on these dissenters hard enough to discourage the rest, apparently.

The CCP lies to save face. Its existence is predicated upon the fear and/or respect of the people it controls. It is not a free society.

Does that mean 25-50% are severe? Is this a bimodal distribution?

Billionaires skim like .5-2% in margins off the top of the companies and relationships they build. People get paid throughout. This is nonsense.

The fact that covid is screwing the world right now does not mean that we should all be getting UBI under non emergency conditions. Putting Romney's plan in with Yang's is a conflation here because one is only for a single unprecedented global emergency, not everyday life.

That said, UBI is quite literal wealth redistribution. You take taxes from the haves and give the cash directly to the hands of the have nots. There's a point where it becomes unethical and/or counterproductive...but where that point is perhaps remains to be seen.

I don't meet anyone going staying home and going to the store once a week in a mask. That's what we'll all be doing soon.

Well, those who are willing to comply.

Suburbs?

I have an old Windex spray bottle that ive filled with rubbing alcohol and I've been blasting everything with extreme paranoia.

Honestly statistically speaking in most areas out chances of coming into contact with the virus are still quite low. There's 300MM+ people here and even if 1MM are infected, those are good odds.

That's actually really good news, thank you. You can just leave packages outside for a day or two.

Just documenting for the future: today the NYSE halted at least once and Dow dropped 13%. PA announced shutdown of all non essential businesses.

Do we know yet what the probability of packaging borne transmission is? Has anyone seen anything? I saw one study describing virus lifetime on various surfaces but I don't think they tested cardboard.

Also I don't know what they're expecting. They either have mountains of stock or they'll be laying these people back off soon when factories close. I think supplies out of China are still disrupted.

There is a high probability that at least many candidate vaccines could have induce a deadly autoimmune reaction upon exposure to the virus, because of antibody dependent enhancement (ADE), which is shared by other coronaviruses like the previous SARS. At least one paper I read trialing multiple vaccine candidates on animals reported failures in all cases due to autoimmune damage to lung tissue.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0006291X1...

Detuche Bank is inching toward bankruptcy.[0]

All indications are that this virus will take more than two months to deal with - you should carefully monitor China for the next few weeks because their self reported recovery may not be genuine.

How long can businesses hold out? What's stopping authoritarianism from taking hold, left and/or right, if this drags on for 3-6 months? We don't even know if you build lasting immunity to this virus yet. It could become endemic.

0. https://www.macroaxis.com/invest/ratio/DB--Probability-Of-Ba...

Between the economy, the oil price war, the politicization of politics, and most pressingly the virus, 2019ncov is proving to be the potential trigger for wide scale geopolitical change and possibly insecurity. States are going to go into quarantine one by one with little to no coordination. Governments and law agencies will be commandeering emergency powers. We are sitting on a major pressure point and it's impossible to predict the outcome, but there is a high likelihood of political instability and/or violence, even within America.

If the economy doesn't recover soon, people are going to grow increasingly hungry and desperate without radical federal measures. It is prudent to be prepared to defend yourself now because this is shaping up to be the kind of scenario where you really cannot rely on first responders to protect you.

Edit: I meant "polarization of politics" but autocorrect may be hinting at something profound...

That wouldn't be entirely inappropriate to leave it up to states if the states weren't also clearly as incapable as the government has shown to be.

Edit: sorry for the confusion, I'm saying letting states decide on appropriate measures somewhat independently is not necessarily a bad idea when competent people are in charge. Each state will have unique circumstances which will require customized interventions. I hear Ohio has been handling this well.

I didn't want to write it out again but you took the words out of my mouth.

All of the worst [pending] peer reviewer papers are gradually being confirmed, it seems. The news has been getting consistently worse for literally two months now and we now have at least a dozen countries on lockdown, and growing.

I just don't see how these closures aren't going to ripple through the global economy. The market is down 25% YTD after two desperate stimulus measures - $1.5T injection and interest rates cut to zero.

What are you going to prop up when world travel and trade is shut down? And domestic regions are locked down too?

The kicker is that we had been seeing negative long term indicators for a while before this - inverted yield curve, and long overdue for the approximately 7 year recession cycle, among other indicators.

I would love to be convinced otherwise but, regardless of the outcome of the 2019ncov situation, this is shaping up to be a trigger for a global recession, possibly a depression. Modern society cannot sustain itself indoors without radical measures. The vast majority of people probably work at jobs that cannot be performed remotely.

You don't understand. I am making this assertion as a former physicist. We have stumbled upon extremely general function approximators.

Effectively the same way that we can use equations to make inferences about reality - but because of the nature of mathematical notation and the limitations of human ability, though powerful, math has limitations. E.g. you can write out the idealized equations for heat propagation in a conductive medium, but solving them for a real object requires empirical simulation.

Deep neural nets are the next step. Now you can essentially train these neural networks to infer not just the general idealized behaviors, but specific details, discrete values for X and Y on a fine grid that are beyond the practical limits of applied math.

But this is much bigger. It turns out that, much in the way that idealized equations apply to many problems (e.g. exponential growth arising from diff EQ), neural nets generalize to all manner of real world problems, provided the training data is appropriately curated.

These neural networks excel at learning human like heuristics, with machine level precision. You can make inferences for both continuous and discrete probabilistic systems. This is a major development and it's just starting. We've finally assembled the pieces in the last few years.

Most of those people know that reading papers is far from enough to understand the issues at hand and making such stark statements

Some of us people know that grad school literally consists of learning potentially exclusively from papers. These papers represent the cutting edge of human knowledge and for someone familiar with scientific literature they are not that hard to parse. Doctors and scientists are humans like you and me.

I'm not making policy here, I'm posting on a forum where unusually intelligent people from all disciplines gather and casually speculate on any number of topics. Though I guarantee at this point that I understand the problem at least as well as some 90% of our politicians...with or without sources.

Oh my God yes I'm glad to see someone understand. Especially if you have a generalists background. ML is incredibly powerful because deep neural networks, as we're discovering, are extremely powerful, extremely general function approximators. We're inching toward a new type of mathematics.

I've been reaching out to prominent people and I'm getting interest in some kind of collaboration with funding. People are onto the tech and it's myriad applications. There's a reason ML engineer was ranked #1 be demand growth (300%) on indeed last year!

Unfortunately a vaccine is unlikely to work. This is probably being done more for optics. This virus likely has Antibody Dependent Enhancement. Same reason there's no vaccine for SARS or MERS. It's 4am and I should be sleeping but there's a paper floating around where a bunch of SARS candidates were trialed on multiple species. In ever case immunity was conferred but upon re-exposure the animals had autoimmune lung damage.

This virus is far more dangerous than most people understand now. The news media has been a month late in everything since they started reporting because all of this is evolving too rapidly to confirm to journalistic standards. You have to dig for this information yourself.

This is basically a summary of most of the worst case rumors turning out to be true. This is very bad. We should be preparing to isolate ourselves from society as much as possible for a few months. Times are going to get rough.

The good news is that this may be a cleansing fire that the US is long overdue for. By now some of you have undoubtedly realized that 2019ncov is not just a virus - it is a chaotic geopolitical force. It is changing the way we live in front of our eyes.

These are exciting times. There's your silver lining.

Health and the economy are closely linked. The correlation between per-capita GDP and health (life expectancy) is essentially perfect. If the covid-19 pandemic leads to a global economy collapse, many more lives will be lost than covid-19 would ever be able to claim

I don't agree with his derivation, I think he's mixing correlation and causation a little, but his conclusion is undoubtedly correct.

The fed had now pushed one $1.5T stimulus package and lowered rates to zero in an absolutely desperate attempt to prop up a market when the entire country is about to shut down - what are they propping up when no one is going to spend any money?

Don't believe me? China. Iran. Italy. Spain. Austria. Multiple Nordic countries. Nationwide shutdown. Coming to a state near you.

300MM people just panicked at the same time, and the stores have been empty for two days. Imagine what's going to happen when they all discover fractional reserve banking.

Bank runs are coming. We are witnessing financial collapse and possibly the early failure of the American empire. Futures trading was halted today. Market will tank tomorrow. That's after a $1.5T stimulus. This is it.