aarondong

Saddle point is a nice way to put it.

My framing may have been confusing there. “distillation of the very best human knowledge of expertise”. Distillation is different from outright capability or reliability. It is not directly adjacent.

For anything health related all AI models show high levels of anchoring bias. I would not use it as a confidant, and be skeptical of claims. Even so, human doctors are also fallible and prone to cognitive bias.

I think the obfuscation is because human intelligence has been projected onto AI model capability. AI models only have a limited dimension of human intelligence, and in some axes orthogonal, and when I say distillation I refer to this.

The "AGI narrative" is distinct from the existence of AGI.

Most of the discussion around AGI is highly speculative. I am not saying AGI could not exist, and it is a term that has historically been loosely defined. Decades of coming science and research will tell.

An even more cynical take than me!

I agree with your last statement.

I like your optimism and I think you will be vindicated. AI is democratic and AI talent is globally distributed. It will just take a while to get online. AI labs do not have a monopoly on human talent, and open source AI only empowers independent science and meritocracy.

On a funny note, I think their prompt was:

"Hey Fable. Please attribute every piece of scientific and economic progress to AI until 2040. And predict every major geopolitical event. Make no mistakes."

To me, this feels like a last ditch effort to revive the AGI narrative to reject the coming and current commoditisation of these models, contrary to all current evidence. https://artificialanalysis.ai/

I would not like to be dismissive, but to me this article feels like an exercise in creative writing rather than a report to be taken seriously. The entire experience feels like a choose your own adventure game, seems like their stylistic intent.

I am not sure if alternative reality fiction is the best way to approach real and serious AI risks.

I am also not sure, with the amount of emdashes and the style of prose, that the entire article was not AI generated.

AI is going to be a mature scientific field. There are going to be efficiency improvements in training and inference. New paradigms are going to emerge with better multimodality, real time streaming and real time interfaces. Models are going to converge on the limits of our data available for pre and post training, improvements will be incremental and spiky in domains.

I am not sure who the AI 2040 article is for. I suspect it is intended to be a digestible piece of media for the financial class.

AI is going to be a useful technology and its impacts across the economy and global will be broadly distributed. Because AI represents the distillation of the very best human knowledge and expertise. AI is compression of human capabilities, the very best ones. Maybe the argument is that in verifiable domains, such as model training, AI models can supercede humans. I don't think so. A human's high level thinking, our incredibly more efficient semantic/neural compression, our ability to switch tasks and achieve the creative insight is not replicated through the current paradigm.

That's great. Relying on a third party as your means of authentication and communication with the world always has inherent risk.

I would assume that their engineering is of the highest standard, given the category of products they provide. And their marketing and general privacy posturing and guarantees.

My comment wasn't supposed to be a jab at Proton. No service can have 100% uptime.

But I signed up for Proton and paid them just for a secure and stable contact email for my domain registrar. And when I couldn't log in for 15 minutes, with opaque errors and requests just being timed out, it was definitely a surprise.

I'll keep using their service. The refund remark was probably a bit polemic.

I wasn't looking for a complete email client at the time, and I just needed a secure and stable address as my contact email for my domain registrar. I had to move my registrar contacts from an old gmail account.

I bought the yearly paid plan because they won't close it for inactivity. I'll look into mailbox.org or another solution, maybe even self-host if I need to migrate my work email!

Ok good to know it isn't a complete auth outage. I might keep proton, not sure about other options.

Yeah, just the timing couldn't feel worse in my case. Right after doing some security shuffling and signing up. recency bias

literally signed up for proton mail, their yearly paid plan, around half an hour ago.

I assumed an email service was supposed to be stable first, given how important it is. I was going to use proton mail as my contact email with my domain registrar.

This outage may change my mind.

REFUND?

Hi, I'm Aaron. I've been a long time reader.

Today I decided to sign up for a proton mail account to move my domain registrar contact email to a provider other than Gmail. I changed my registrar contact email around 30 minutes ago.

Now it seems like Proton mail is down, or that I am unable to authenticate. The issue is at their end, my outgoing auth requests get hung and timed out. Tried all the usual fixes, multiple networks, cache, incognito firebox, google chrome, etc.

Now the status page shows they are investigating an incident.

I am now second guessing my decision to use proton mail at all.

Obviously, my domain registrar allows me to change my contact email at any time so this is not a real issue at the moment but I have neverexpeirenced a gmail outage.

The timing is rather serendipitous, or whatever the polar opposite of serendipity would be here. FUNNY!