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_uy6i

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Most Americans live paycheck to paycheck because they are out spending their money (bars, restaurants, gas commuting, going to the movies etc. = discretionary spending), but because of lockdowns they weren’t able to do that (yes some of that money got spent on other things (computer monitors and streaming services)) but the us savings rate has never been higher[1], and the wait staff that were out of jobs made more money not working than when they did!

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PSAVERT

While I’m not bullish I think markets are now closer to fairly valued than extreme over valuation, on a Schiller PE basis we are somewhere between the 5 and 10 year trailing averages, the 20 year average puts you at 25.9x which is a 12% drop from here. Sure the 40 year average is at 23.8x but if you used that as a gauge of fair value the only time you would have been below that was the depths of the financial crisis.

This is easier said than done, but here goes:

1) exercise. 6 days a week (2 good cardio days, two stretchy (Pilates/yoga), and two sports/outside/weights)

2) eat healthily a) 90% plant no carb plant based (salads etc) 10% whatever you want. Extremely limited drugs (alcohol) (like once a month)

3) adequate sleep ( #1 and # 2 help a lot)

4) spend at least an hour a day outside (bike to work, have lunch in the park, go for a walk)

5) use your calendar to create time for yourself

6) challenge yourself to learn new things that do not come easy I’ll to you (for many of the people that are stem oriented here, that means dancing and watercolors)

7) put your phone away

I mean that public sector employees are underpaid. Comparing consultants and in-house cost is always going to to result in 2-3x disparity (you’re paying a premium for swing capacity). I’m willing to bet the state employee is overpaid Vs his private sector non-consultant counterpart. You then have ask why hire a consultant and I think the answer is that it’s some combination of not being able to fire state employees after the project, or that those employees are actually ineffectual/incompetent.

(As an aside I’m willing to bet the #’s aren’t apples to apples with the consultant being a fully loaded coast, and the in-house not including pension benefits etc)

On top of all that, You also have to solve for the structural inefficiency of public sector pay and benefits. Public sector employees make tons more than than private sector counterparts when you account for pensions and benefits, but those only really accrue if you “put in your 20” - making government service basically a non-starter for someone that doesn’t want to be a lifer…

Citation please? Everything I’ve seen implies public sector employees in California make massively more than their private sector counterparts.

The private markets are very liquid for quality assets, you don’t need to go public for that, and the sec would not prevent these actions, their requirements would be comprehensive disclosure of the conflicts, not prohibition

I don’t see this going anywhere unless a) it becomes costly/risky to hold customer data, b) it’s mandated by law, or c) there is massive customer demand

Unfortunately I don’t see any of those on the horizon…

The $10m OMG Fund 4 years ago

I would have thought you would have been able to recover associated expenses in small claims court like the cost of your other hotel?

Wow kind of a making my case here - you’ve assumed that I have some anti-science position (and why are we talking about gay gay people?) and have said nothing of the sort. when in fact it’s really just that seemingly numerate and intelligent people lose their minds when you point out that any of their pet social goals are in conflict with each other.

Like for example, when rich towns have a home sale tax to fund “community preservation” (buying vacant land- decreasing supply), strict zoning codes (no multi-family for example - decrease supply) then also feel the need to have an affordable housing effort (building homes, increase supply). You literally have people in the same town government working at cross purposes!

If my local tarot card reader with a healing crystal store doesn’t believe in basic economic theory, not exactly a big shock! But they also don’t exactly purport to be “data driven”

Honestly if it weren’t so depressing I’d enjoy the schadenfreude of watching Californians sacrifice one sacred cow - science (economics), for another - their social mores.

I’m constantly amazed by my friends who can get into the minutiae of Covid epidemiology or climate science, can’t or won’t embrace the most rudimentary economic concepts and principles because it conflicts with their social beliefs

Got it, so the widow living on a fixed income, in her modest home that was once in a lower middle class neighborhood that has now gentrified, is forced out so that someone really contributing to society (like FANG employee) can live closer to work? She now has to live somewhere else, what property was freed up exactly, (so no net new housing creation)? (Not even going to address paying tax = good for society)

I agree that prison truly is an epidemic, and think putting people in prison for the purchase or possession of personal quantities of drugs is unreasonably cruel

I think the this actually the best argument for some form of legalization, but given the amount of crime committed by drug users/abusers (not including drug trade related crime) the number in the US is comparable.

If people who use/abuse drugs only say on their couch and ate Doritos fine. But they cause (fatal) car crashes, violently rob and assault people, abuse their spouses and children, and commit homicide.

If ~1/3rd of offenses are committed under the influence that implies ~5k murders a year or ~78k since 2006 (admittedly I have no idea how many of those murders would have happened if the person was sober, but it’s worth noting the magnitude)

https://bjs.ojp.gov/drugs-and-crime-facts/drug-use-and-crime

I agree, but I’ve personally never been able to disentangle the legalization Vs addiction and prison argument:

Legalization = less users being incarcerated (probably a good thing)

There is a high correlation between violent crime and substance abuse (legal and illegal Drugs) so legalization likely increases substance abuse and hence violent crime.

The system is so complex that the implications of legalization on the “model” are just not clear to me

Gross generalization, but my suspicion is that it’s not the all day staring at computer (that’s most adults these days) but also many CS types spend their free time in front of a screen as well…

I think there is another element involved - there is the desire not to ripped off. Many luxury goods are aesthetically pleasing, but total rip offs. Take the ridiculous fad of designer shower sandals/slides, an adidas one costs $25-$35 [1] a Gucci one ~$400 [2] but both probably cost about $5. The point I’m making is if you want Gucci slides (for whatever reasons), and you’re galled by the markup, replicas would seem to “solve” your problem (putting aside all other problems it creates).

[1]https://www.adidas.com/us/adilette-comfort-slides/GZ5892.htm...

[2]https://www.gucci.com/us/en/pr/men/shoes-for-men/slides-sand...