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Wookai

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Senior Machine Learning Scientist @ Microsoft vincent.etter.io hnchat:Ph1C3Z9PQwH2kBIQJFlY

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Great writeup, always interesting to see people digging into issues like that in such detail. I work at Google and shared the article with the Gboard team. Thanks!

Google employee here, xmanger is one of the main ML experiment tracking/orchestration tool we use internally, I'm pretty excited that it is now available for other to use!

In a nutshell, xmanager allows you to:

- define an experiment, which is a collection of one or more work units (think combination of hyperparamters)

- manage the different jobs/executable required to run this experiment (TPU workers, tensorboard job, etc.)

- collect and display measurements from work units (loss, other metrics)

- keep a reproducible artifact which allows you to re-run the same experiment at any point in the future

See e.g. https://github.com/deepmind/xmanager/blob/main/examples/ for a few concrete examples of a launcher scripts.

I wish they had included screenshots of the tool itself in the repo, I'll make that suggestion :).

Editor's note here: https://msdn.microsoft.com/en-us/magazine/mt833403

Instead of a tactical exploration of a thorny technical problem or new tool, this article digs into patterns and practices that can be critical to a successful machine learning project. The article delves into four key aspects of machine learning management: Connecting with users to enable closed-loop feedback, applying machine learning to the right objectives, building systems to support machine learning-based solutions, and understanding what goes into running a machine learning-based system.

Based on this plot, my naive reaction would be to decide that DBSCAN is the best algorithm, as it recovers the (qualitatively) best clusters in each case. Anybody has experience with DBSCAN? What are the downside?

Sure, many factors can explain the initial "surge" in pledges: pre-launch marketing, featuring on recently launched, novelty, first spread on social medias, etc. I did not really try to explain the causes of the different phases, but merely to use the raw data to predict the state at the end (successful or failed).

I haven't done it yet, but I could. This also depends on what your goal is, and how long the campaign last, but it is quite easy to extract such probabilities of success. For instance, this plot shows the estimated probability of success as a function of time and the proportion of the goal that was pledged: http://imgur.com/hoTzBEW. From it, you can see that you need to be at about 25% or more of your goal in the middle for your campaign if you want to have more chances of success than failure. Similar plots could be done by including more factors.