TaurenHunter

You can't claim to protect society from anything without protecting individuals primarily. Society is not a herd in which you sacrifice an individual to save the rest.

You are responsible for your own interpretation/distortion.

The sheer hypocrisy

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/sep/02/hillary-clin...

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/jul/05/fbi-no-charg...

Also:

https://www.fbi.gov/news/press-releases/statement-by-fbi-dir...

"To be clear, this is not to suggest that in similar circumstances, a person who engaged in this activity would face no consequences. To the contrary, those individuals are often subject to security or administrative sanctions. But that is not what we are deciding now."

Cryptocurrencies don't stand a chance.

...except for inflation.

Since this is just a speculation: China's government could throw a wrench in that.

Let's say they see Taiwan coming out of a negotiation with Trump implementing zero tariffs.

I wouldn't put it past them to do a naval blockade on Taiwan to "prevent the US from stealing their tax income" or some other excuse.

Far from being asleep, Congress is actively participating, just not the way you hoped for:

https://money.com/congress-stock-market-traders-2025/

They are sure holding the knobs... of a slot machine that is Congress.

Roughly 50% of the Americans don't own stocks.

They heard that stocks crashed but wouldn't care that some rich people lost some money.

Populism is only working now because the populace has been ignored for a long while.

They remember when they were told to "learn to code" when losing jobs.

Why don't you steelman the argument instead of using the most uncharitable interpretation possible?

Sure, there is a greater incentive now to depart the dollar system.

But that would be a monumental shift and the path to that goal is a nightmare with all kinds of challenges.

Rewiring the entire system would take a decade or more.

The global energy market uses the U.S. dollar for pricing and settling transactions since the 70s - the "petrodollar" system.

If they EU push hard for it, they may get someone like Norway to accept Euros.

However, there are energy contracts locked into dollar-based pricing and many exporters need dollars because they hold dollar-based debt, buy goods in dollars or have a currency peg.

For them to accept the relatively unappealing Euros they might ask for a premium to offset conversion costs or risks.

1/3 of the CPI is calculated using the rent variation smoothed in the last 6 months - which is not too elastic due to lease agreements. So it wouldn't be a major downward pressure.

If it dips too much that means interest rates will go lower, which will fuel another round of inflating real estate.

You've said "Instead we get tariffs with quick retaliation e.g. from China, and I still see no negotiation in place" and that was what I was responding to.

Regarding China's government there should be no expectation of negotiation because they have demonstrated over the years they will not play fair and shouldn't be trusted to do so now.

If you don't know that because you haven't tracked geopolitics, now you know, and can perhaps review your opinion about world trade, which is strongly related to geopolitics.

Now, regarding other countries, you can't say there is "no negotiation in place": https://www.npr.org/2025/04/06/nx-s1-5354134/vietnam-asks-tr...

Me too. Very nice!

The problem in general is that we are all, the US Congress included, guessing what the goal is.

I was guessing too until I took the time to investigate and found there is a method to the madness.

Now, did you really expect negotiation with China? Do you think that was the intention? You gotta think critically rather than just lazily or emotionally assume everything was a failure.

Why your username shows as green?

The Fed may raise interest rates, that is, proposing that securities be sold at a higher discount.

A fearful market may end up bidding up these securities anyway, bring the effective rate down.

Thank you for that! I didn't know about Yarvin nor List. I will try to find out more.

https://graymirror.substack.com/p/implementing-market-balanc...

what Buffett suggests in the article is a cap and trade system on imports.

A H1B visa but for goods instead of people...

Interesting! Aren't Europeans known for their sectors of the economy that are heavily protected by tariffs?

Common Agricultural Policy?

Tariff rate for cars of 10% (compared to US' 2.5%)

The sheer majority of media has always opposed Trump though.

That must be why some people are keying Teslas and even resorting to arson.

Not true. The Fed did lower rates leading up to the election, seemingly to postpone a crisis until Democrats got elected (which didn't happen).

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/federal-reserve-expected-...

Trump is already increasing taxes (tariff is a tax on consumption of imported goods). A recession is inevitable if you need interest rates to go down.

Yes, but if they let get into a debt spiral, the only solution becomes devaluation of the dollar to the point of hyperinflation. Only then debt is reduced, but it would be terrible for everybody except a few.

Perhaps, we are mixing 2 things:

1) Economic/Monetary Inflation, which is an increase in the money supply in an economy driven by government or central bank ("print money").

2) Price Inflation, which is an increase in the general price level of goods and services that people typically notice at the groceries or gas and usually derives from monetary inflation, but can also be due to the new tariffs.

Is the Fed going to do the same confusion and use 2 to justify higher rates for longer?

I think they shouldn't unless they're being disingenuous and politically motivated (push just enough to make the entire Trump mandate an unending crisis until Democrats get back in power).

I don't see anyone mentioning that the United States needs to manage its massive national debt, currently in the trillions, by issuing Treasury securities. These securities mature at varying intervals and require continuous "rolling" or refinancing to pay off old debt with new borrowing.

Significant rollovers are expected from April through September 2025, with additional short-term maturities due by June.

Higher interest rates significantly complicate US' ability to refinance. The cost of servicing this debt — paying interest rather than reducing principal — is already a major budget item, surpassing Medicare, approaching Defense and Social Security levels.

If rates don't come down soon it locks in higher costs for years. The country is at risk of a debt spiral.

How can rates come down? The present uncertainty around tariffs and a potential crisis could create conditions that pressure interest rates downward before those Treasury securities mature, by influencing Federal Reserve policy.

Treasuries are considered safe during such crisis. Increased demand for Treasuries pushes their prices up and yields down, effectively lowering interest rates.

What are the flaws in this thinking?

The other day someone sent me a video where the candidate was lip syncing (very badly) the entire interview while someone spoke the answers outside the camera.

A tool like this would be very handy for him.

Are you talking about ex-presidents?

Trump isn't even receiving a salary: https://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/promises/trumpomete...

USPTO is the U.S. Patent Troll Office?