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SilentTiger

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Hi HN, I'm the author.

As a Senior Frontend Developer, I've seen a lot of anxiety and excitement among my peers about AI's impact on our jobs (Copilot, etc.). It's clear the job description is being rewritten.

I decided to move past the simple "AI will/won't replace us" debate and write a structured analysis of how the skills are shifting—from 'implementation' to 'orchestration'.

I'm here to discuss. Curious to hear what this community thinks!

Supply chain diversification is certainly not a problem; it can even be considered excellent. However, supply chain diversification isn't the opposite of independence; it should be a complement to it. You need independent capabilities to survive external changes. Supply chain diversification, on the other hand, allows you to thrive even when external conditions are favorable.

The problem in Europe is that they've placed too much faith in supply chain diversification and almost completely abandoned independent capabilities.

You see, this is the problem. Europeans always think about who they rely on, and never think about relying on themselves. And they give this behavior a high-sounding name: supply chain diversification

Because they're incredibly fast, exceeding 40 meters per second. You can't fire a shotgun at 80 meters. A typical shotgun's effective range is only 40 meters, and once it's within range, you only have one second to fire.

Furthermore, drones are generally difficult to detect at 400 meters unless you're using a synthetic detection system. By the time you spot them, it's too late.

My vision is that in the future, these model providers will provide interfaces that allow various information management systems, including CRM systems, to integrate their capabilities into these model provider agents.

Thus, I believe the true long-term moat for these products lies in private deployment. I don't believe these large model providers will be heavily involved in private deployment business scenarios in the short term.

I think the issue you're overlooking is: what happens to your product if model providers further enhance their capabilities?

To be honest, I once had a similar idea—to build a system like this. But I gradually realized that model providers are becoming increasingly powerful, and they’re even venturing into application development themselves, not just focusing on the models. This makes anyone building applications on top of LLMs seriously consider whether the model providers might eventually replace them and do a better job.

I can even give you what I think is a very representative example: Manus. You can’t possibly not know this product. But now, both OpenAI and Google are developing their own full-featured agents. If Manus can’t come up with new ideas, I think they might be in serious trouble.