Pinkthinker

I don’t think you have ever written financial software. To take an example, you are not going to be able with a Chat GPT prompt to ask it to price a specific bond in a mortgage backed security. It’s hard enough to do it using structured pseudocode.

When you think of all the efforts that humans undergo to produce structured pseudo code for their own flawed software, why would we be surprised that an AI would struggle with unstructured text prompts? LLMs will never get there. You need a way to tell the computer exactly what you want, ideally without having to spell out the logic.

I agree with this. None of this is irretrievable - you’ll grow out of it hopefully - many people do!

Im getting tired of my side project. I always knew it would be really hard, but everything takes longer than expected. It’s a tool that writes software, so you can imagine the complexity and all the hurdles I’ve had to overcome. So far it’s been years! It’s a labor of love and I think it’s going to be a game changer so I have no choice but to keep ploughing forward. It’s at Ac28R.com if you’re curious.

I think there is a ton of innovation, much of it taking advantage of the underlying hardware that has been getting more powerful and cheaper and therefore enabling things we didn’t previously dream of. Even little things like those car sensors that make the car shudder when you cross a lane line without indicating. Many of the YC companies seem to come up with things that in theory anybody else could have developed if only they had the imagination. I’ve developed a tool that writes complex reliable software - it wouldn’t be possible without other prior advances in hardware and software. And then there are the specialised businesses that piggyback on LLMs. There is no end of things you could do, and you can increasingly do them yourself.

An AI that writes complex accurate code will not be based on LLMs. That’s because you cannot possibly write precise and complete instructions using human prose, regardless of whether you might call yourself a “prompt engineer”. Such an AI would take in symbols as its specifications.

To me that leaves an opening for a software architect that can put these symbols together quickly and efficiently.

A core skill of such a person would be deep technical domain knowledge. Other things like negotiation, persuasion, communication, management are also core skills worth developing.

Of course, many peripheral jobs would still be needed like cybersecurity, databases, networking, hardware etc.

This kind of AI technology is coming soon. The good news is that most software people are really good at adapting to learning new things.

AI will be able to code faster and more accurately than we do. It won’t come from LLMs though; for one thing, their free-form human inputs will never be precise enough. Instead, it will come from a different kind of AI. Jobs that will be untouched are those that surround it - software architects, database experts, cyber, people who are good at figuring out requirements etc.

Most likely OpenAI would have done it first, that is assuming that LLMs are the answer. But LLMs can never be the answer since they rely on ambiguously worded free-form text written by humans. Try writing software to price a derivative that way. The only way that a computer will write accurate reliable software is if it’s given clear and precise instructions. No current tool will do that.

The answer will come from outside the usual suspects.

IDE’s

I’m pretty sure that LLMs will never replace programmers. It’s way too hard to stitch together code snippets. Also, when you think about all the misunderstandings that arise from pseudo code, free form text input to an LLM has to be even more ambiguous. I don’t care whether someone calls themselves a “prompt engineer”.

But AI will replace programmers just like it superseded chess players.

We are putting the finishing touches to an AI that write code. And not in an LLM kind of way. It allows you to specify exactly what you want without needing to specify the logic. Check out Ac28R.com

We are excited about it, but it makes my heart ache when I think about the impact.

The world is speeding up. We are the cause but we will struggle to avoid getting swept up in it.

I’m old enough to remember databases like IDMS before SQL came along. SQL simplifies database access in a similar way to how AI and low-code tools simplify application that have minimal logic - things like web pages, dashboards and the like. But the moment you need to do something at the other end of the spectrum - like a complex financial model - they fall down completely. That’s because you need someone to program the logic. Right now, only a programmer can do that. New tools are on the way, but they don’t use LLMs

I’m struggling with the same problem. I think it depends on who you audience is. LinkedIn might get you to potential customers in your domain, but product hunt would get you to more techie people. My product (check out www.ac28r.com) is a software invention, so my initial target would be techies who understand it; hopefully a good reaction might help with the hard work of selling.

I’ve had a few really close work friends over the years. I even met my wife at work.

I agree with the notion that you should be careful about letting many work people know your personal business. However, close teams do work better together and good friendships make work so much more pleasurable and enrich your life. Part of the problem is that our work relationships are a huge part of our job and we need to manage them carefully. But all you have to do is look at people in working class jobs where the relationships have no impact on the job, and you see what great camaraderie they often have. I miss that.

I don’t see any end to gaming. It meets deep human needs to master things, achieve things along the way and participate in a way that you don’t do with spectator sports, movies, or tv. I’m a jaded corporate type and it seems like playtime to me! Plus, I’ve watched mythic quest!

Home alone Ferris Buhler Blues Brothers Field of dreams

In addition to all the good technical advice here, I would recommend paying attention to soft skills like written communication, presenting, persuading, reading comprehension, listening, being organised, setting priorities, etc. They will open up doors that you may not value now but perhaps might later. And they are the kind of skills you build just by paying attention to them every day.

I would use a book or internet tutorials and just start building simple programs. Even better is to write a simple program and then just keep it extending it as you try out new things. Eventually you will get confident enough to be able to use this as the starting point for real projects. The key is to learn by doing. Good luck

I tend to indulge them. After all, I do it all the time and appreciate being indulged! There’s nothing better than engaging with someone who is an expert in an area that you know little about. It’s only a problem if they dig in and get argumentative.

We built a software product that writes code. Even though it’s obviously very intelligent, it is not based on an LLM at all. We are going back and forth whether to characterize it as AI for this very reason. The term is being very overused right now.

Most other jobs that pay well and take advantage of your technical smarts have other downsides- you need to spend years getting a qualification. The trade off as a coder is that you don’t really need one, but you do need to keep current. If you do then you have nice well paid work ahead. I left programming 40 years ago, studied for 7 years to be an actuary and loved it. I have now just moved back into IT and started my own firm (Ac28R.com-check it out). One way or another you will need to put some kind of extra effort in. If you don’t, then you are stuck in with that big pool of employees who don’t know much and need constant guidance. Hope that helps

Can you work with a headhunter? Doing interviews is always the best way to learn about the job market and get feedback. Even if they are not able to get you the interviews you want they will definitely give you feedback. Same thing goes for consulting firms and other intermediaries

Given that you are 30 with no experience I would be a little more flexible. Longer hours means more experience and it wouldn’t kill you. Many professions involve extra hours building your skills.

I think that maybe we are too harsh in expecting LLMs to be perfect. If they are based off of human input that is incorrect then we might propagate such errors. But they will still be quicker and much more reliable than most people. Isn’t this good enough? After all, we are willing to accept flaws in people, even including the president. I suspect that the way forward will be to progressively clean the LLM input data as each error gets identified.

Thanks for taking a look. Yes, we treat numerical structures as standalone entities that can be combined and manipulated. With some slight variations we do something similar for databases, sets and random variables. Basically, all of the iterative loops are hidden from view. Unfortunately there is no easy way for people to play with it directly - its UI uses special expandable panels that would be difficult to build into a web page

Thanks - yeah we covered numerical structures in some depth but it’s really hard to show how it handles really complex iteration like set operations, databases, and random variables. We are planning to do a video dedicated to them.

I didn’t mean that they were exactly the same as you. But they do tend to get fired all the time and in many cases they have to be compensated in order to induce them to leave their current job. I do agree that keeping the rabble in check is part of their job, but that role extends all the way down an organisation to the chief bottlewasher. Regarding the prior comment, Elon Musk is obviously a very special case since he is the owner and he DID get the stock up way beyond what anyone would have imagined! I don’t think we want to build a generalization around him :-)

I agree that they can do things that don’t require too much logic - websites being a prime example, where much of the challenge is in the design and layout and where the response to clicking a button is fairly standard. But if you want to write really complex software like Monte Carl simulations involving highly customized financial products, then you have no choice but to tell it EXACTLY what you want. Free form language requests are never going to get you there. Also, ChTGPT can no doubt find plenty of code snippets dealing with the pressing of a button but there will be precious little available for complex requests. And if the code starts to stretch into tens of thousands of lines, then someone needs to look it over.

I’m guessing that he is still thinking in terms of LLMs. We know they cannot do precise things like coding software since humans will never be able to use natural language to specify their requirements. Even pseudocode is not precise and detailed enough.

AGI will have to come from another direction

It’s not good to keep fixating on how much the cruel executives make. They are employees just like you, and they have similar worries and concerns. Also, loyalty cuts both ways. Companies will invest more time and energy in employees they know they can count on. You have to decide whether to take that risk or remain suspicious and bitter. Even with all that, both sides have the right to cut ties at any time. Its not so much like a marriage as it is a long time living arrangement.