OnlineGladiator

Please tell me more.

I was never trying to counter any of his points. I think we just disagree on what makes for good conversation.

Thank you for repeating yourself again. It's really hammering home the point. Please, continue.

I think we agree and we've just been talking past each other. Cheers.

The easiest way to get TSMC's R&D in the US is to have them build a fab here and have employees here. If China invades Taiwan, and TSMC has employees that want to flee to somewhere else, the US would be the most logical option. If they already have a fab here, an established workforce and infrastructure here, that's better than having to start from nothing.

Having TSMC build a fab on US soil doesn't prevent any parallel efforts. If anything having the workforce here would make it easier to build future fabs.

As I've said many times before, I am aware of everything you have said. I just don't care. You seem to be really upset that someone on the internet disagrees with you. And from my perspective, you are the one that has no self-awareness and is completely missing the point. You don't even understand the conversation we're having and yet you're constantly condescending.

I'm sure if you keep repeating yourself though I'll change my mind.

We'd still have the fab on US soil even if they went to war. I don't think China would invade the US over it.

So your goal here is to say the same thing over and over again and hope I eventually give the affirmation you so desperately need? You've already declared that you're right multiple times. Nobody cares but you.

https://xkcd.com/386/

You might want to develop a sense of humor. You'll enjoy life more.

I don't think it's been refined so much as it's been amplified.

And I think you're completely missing the point. And you say this comment thread is a waste and yet you keep replying. What exactly are you trying to accomplish here? Do you think repeating yourself for a fifth time is going to achieve something?

Have you never heard of constructive criticism?

https://i.redd.it/s4pxz4eabxh71.jpg

The neat thing about HN is we can all talk about stupid shit and disagree about what matters. People keep upvoting me, so I guess my thoughts aren't unpopular and people think it's adding to the discussion.

I agree this is a stupid comment thread, we just disagree about why.

All anybody is doing here is sharing their opinion unless you're quoting benchmarks. My opinion is just as useless as yours, it's just some find mine more interesting and some find yours more interesting.

How do you expect to find a ground truth from a non-deterministic system using anecdata?

Every time I use ChatGPT I become incredibly frustrated with how fucking awful it is. I've used it more than enough, time and time again (just try the new model, bro!), to know that I fucking hate it.

If it works for you, cool. I think it's dogshit.

Yes. If someone gives an example of it not working, and you reply "but that example worked for me" then you're cherry picking when it works. Just because it worked for you does not mean it works for other people.

If I ask ChatGPT a question and it gives me a wrong answer, ChatGPT is the fucking problem.

The point you're missing is it's not always right. Cherry-picking examples doesn't really bolster your point.

Obviously it works for you (or at least you think it does), but I can confidently say it's fucking god-awful for me.

Setting aside everything else I'd normally say, I do respect that you make an earnest attempt to engage with almost anyone.

You realize you're an enormously privileged, wealthy individual telling other people that don't have your wealth and privilege how they should feel the same as you? You don't even say "in my experience" you just condescend to others that they should recognize how great the world is for the 0.1%, completely unaware that it isn't great for people that can't afford food and housing. Nobody gives a shit about their TV when they're hungry on the street.

In my experience, it's the nice people that get fired and the assholes that get promoted. It's not exactly a secret that silicon valley is full of arrogant assholes.

True but surprisingly grinding leetcode puzzles also doesn't mean you're a good programmer.

I don't think anybody with a modicum of experience finds this surprising at all.

we're quickly approaching a time where we'll have to take EVERY study skeptically until it can be replicated

I've always felt like this should be the norm. Why would you trust something before it can be replicated? Even if it's unintentional, people make mistakes.

My point is the data is right there and you can do your own analysis to make the comparison. Do you not know the difference between data and analysis?

I'm confused as to the level of your incompetence.

The data is right there. You're welcome to do your own analysis rather than ask other people to do it for you.

https://www.tesla-fire.com/

Robots can be profitable, but they almost never are. I'm telling you this with over a decade of experience of watching companies, some of which have multibillion dollar market caps, lose money on robots.

Do you have any experience (or preferably data) to suggest otherwise?

I'm not talking about net loss, I'm talking about operating costs.

The maps they make for self-driving cars are made constantly - it's not something they make every year. They're updated weekly, if not daily - and they use a separate much more expensive car to do it. There's a whole separate team just for dealing with this. The amount of data the taxis collect is insane. Terabytes of data per car per hour, which needs to be stored and processed and transported (the data is so much it often makes more sense to physically ship hard drives than to send it over the internet). The "phone home" team is paid employees, and in order to have cellular service to the cars the companies pay a much more expensive plan with cellular providers than you're used to with your cellphone. The engineers who are maintaining the software and making fixes cost money. The people that clean and maintain the cars cost money. Not to mention the wear and tear on the vehicle (which includes the extremely expensive sensor suite) and the electricity to move the vehicle.

I am saying the unit economics, which has nothing to do with the previously spent billions of dollars or efforts of expansion, is currently dogshit for self-driving cars. Theoretically it will improve with scale, but Waymo isn't at scale yet. I think people that haven't worked in robotics have this notion that robots are wildly profitable but this is a common fallacy. Robots almost always lose money, and usually a shitload.

And the only reason most domestic airlines, car manufacturers, and some of the largest financial institutions still exist is because of multiple bailouts. It's not like Tesla is unique in being helped by the government.

I would be astonished if Waymo has profitable unit economics. They're probably closer to spending $10 for every $1 they make. I made my initial fortune working on self-driving cars and there are many reasons the revolution that was supposed to come 10 years ago has yet to arrive.

Yeah, supposedly Verily had $559 MM in revenue in 2022, so total revenue for other bets (including Verily and Waymo) being 65% of that is pretty weird.