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Lxr

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andrew at wrigley . io

- Full time trader (appliedpredictionmarkets.com)

- Part time Chinese learner and maintainer of dragondictionary.com.

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The article doesn't explain what is actually going on to produce the second chart, but here is a guess. Assume people have a true ability x, an estimated ability y which is x + some unbiased noise, and a test score z which is also x + some unbiased noise. If you take a sample and collect the lowest quartile of test scores z, then the average of the estimated abilities y in that group is higher than z because the y are produced centered at x rather than centered at z. By collecting the lowest quartile of test scores, you didn't just get the dumbest people, you also got the people who happened to perform badly on the test that day. These people may be estimating their ability accurately, in which case the estimate would be higher than their randomly bad performance that day.

This seems like too obvious a mistake to not have been noticed for this long though.

Auto-Antonyms 7 years ago

Similar to 厉害 in Chinese - it often translates as terrible, but mostly used to mean great.

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Contact: andrew@neliti.com

Everyone using UTC would be chaos. Imagine organising a remote meeting - you’d have to figure out which hours each party would be awake, by googling “waking hours in Germany” for example.

OneNote is fantastic. Of all the Microsoft things I have installed on my Mac, it’s light years ahead of the rest in terms of stability, usability, speed. It doesn’t get enough recognition!

Cross Chess 8 years ago

Fischer Random / Chess960 is my favourite variant because it negates the rote learning of opening sequences, but still captures the rest of the game. It’s really fun.