J_

Thiel's view of the future is pretty aligned with the Singularity people.

As for the future of nanorobotics, I recommend you watch this interview with Robert Freitas, an expert in nanotechnology and nanomedicine [1]. The implications of nanotechnology will be huge.

He claims that nanorobotics will emerge in the late 2020's and become dominant in the 2030's. They won't just cure cancer. They'll be able to a cure whole host of other diseases that are seen as incurable today, including aging.

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6UVet-OCFdI

Not all predictions are created equal.

Those past predictions tell us that we weren't very good at predicting the coming of strong AI in the past, but it doesn't necessarily mean that current predictions are unreliable.

Like you said, strong AI would change everything. The richest will be the first to utilize them. Things get scary from that point on.

Unless we massively redistribute wealth, then inequality will arrive at unimaginable levels. It's hard to think of a world where the top 1% owns many multiples of what the bottom 99% owns.

I'm guessing at some point that we'll decide as a species that strong AIs cannot be owned by individuals. I'm guessing that it won't be a smooth transition. Instead, we'll become quasi-communists and fairly evenly distribute gains made by the strong AIs.

Also by "uploading", I'm guessing you mean simulate the human brain? Actually uploading a human consciousness would come a while after the advent of strong AI.

No you weren't. You created a straw man and then set it on fire.

I just quoted your exact words and you said exactly what I summarized. You're being a bit ridiculous.

It's actually a pretty simple explanation. The market can remain irrational for a long time, and Japan has never had a monetary policy as insane as its current one.

They are going to DOUBLE their money supply in TWO years. I'm not sure that you understand that massively monetizing your debt has consequences.

It's a massive experiment that is going to end badly.

I was paraphrasing. I'll quote you directly:

"How many more decades of zero inflation / deflation are needed"

That's pretty much what you said.

So what if predictions 20 years ago have turned out to be incorrect? That's really not relevant. Japan's government has never said they will do anything to achieve 2% inflation before.

It's going to be a lot messier than you think.

Hehe. I love Kyle. He's really good at explaining himself.

I think you would have been right a couple years ago. Japan is projected to spend $257 billion on debt service this year. They bring in about $500 billion in revenues.

I think you're pretty much correct. Kyle Bass has been talking about this for years.

When the Japanese hit 2% inflation, people are going to be rushing out of JGBs if the government maintains ZIRP.

This is a complex issue, so I'm going to refer people to this talk that Kyle Bass gave last year:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7kFcDKBpdII

One could argue that you're the one that's brainwashed.

Japan's currency will never inflate because it's always been that way

I think you're going to change your tone very quickly over the next year or so. Japan's government has never set targets for inflation until now. They are sitting on the largest debt stack to gdp in the world right now at ~245%. They spend almost half their revenues on debt service ALONE.

What happens when inflation hits two percent? What do you think all of these people holding JGBs bringing in 60bp are going to do? They're going to run, not walk.

There was a day and a half when not a single person bought a Japanese government bond because the government wasn't purchasing. The government is buying ALL and I mean ALL the bonds right now.

They are printing as much money as the fed in an economy that is a third our size (~70 billion USD per month). They are going to double the monetary base in two years.

This is clearly unsustainable and the yen is in for some serious devaluation in the very near term when people start running from JGBs.

Does anyone roughly know what Twitch's revenue/profitability is? I know that they're pretty profitable, but I'm not sure to what extent.

1 billion USD seems somewhat low considering Snapchat was valued at 3.5 billion, and I'm pretty sure their revenues are non existent in comparison to Twitch's revenues.

The likelihood of total war between any of the great powers is nil because of nuclear deterrent. So why are we wasting trillions of dollars on conventional weapons against enemies that we will never fight? Oh because they'll be sold to non-nuclear powers where there MIGHT be conflict (i.e. Iran)? What a joke. That's a 9 billion dollar defense budget against 682 billion.

The simple truth is that the military-industrial complex is just a giant leech on our economy that has somehow convinced Americans (and other nations) that it's necessary to buy these multi-billion dollar systems because of all the fear-mongering bullshit that's spewed. Roosevelt's line about the only thing we have to fear is fear itself is apt here.

The amount of waste in our system is disgusting. If we had a smart electorate, our defense budget would be much, much smaller.

It's not if you're Japanese and it causes a bond crisis. Their debt equals over 20 times their government's revenues. Even 2% inflation will cause yields to move and debt service to exceed government revenues. They will be forced to default or inflate. Either will cause the value of the yen to nosedive.

I shouldn't even say if because it's happening now. The yen's fallen more than 20% in the past 6 months. Their government is printing 7 TRILLION yen every month for two years to force inflation. That's almost as much as the Fed is doing in an economy that's a third our size. I'd put my money in US stocks. I tend to think Buffet's right about gold being a lousy investment and really don't have any idea how bitcoins will do.

A lot of hedge funds (e.g. Kyle Bass and George Soros) think that we've reached a tipping point in Japan. Their government already spends 1/4 of all revenue on debt service because their debt is monstrously huge. If inflation happens, their debt bomb is going to go off because no one will want their money in low yield bonds in an inflationary environment. If JGBs (I've never heard them referred to by the JTB abbreviation before) move 200 basis points (which is what the government is targeting for inflation), the government's debt service will exceed revenues. Yields spiked 25 points in 3 days last week.

A debt crisis looks imminent. Kyle Bass is asserting that they're going to have to default and the value of the yen is going to plummet to something like 200 to the dollar. This is just the beginning of the end. Get your money out of yen.

It's still a shitty thing to say. Why do you think he's set to accomplish nothing but get PR for Google? Because he's old?

The guy isn't an idiot, and has managed technical teams his entire life.

Haters gonna hate. Larry Page obviously didn't hire him and let him take up Google's resources for his "rigorous hand-waving".

How does this one-liner contribute to the conversation at all? Your negativity is unenlightening and obnoxious.

He's not building a human though. He's building food. Modern rocketry has been around for about a century, and food has been with us since the beginning. I don't see why it would be that complex. Like pg said, the top comment for every new product posted on HN is always something dismissive that doesn't really add to the discussion, and this thread is no exception.