How demand for oil will change by 2030

http://www.economist.com/daily/chartgallery/displaystory.cfm?story_id=14790202&fsrc=rss

by sleepingbot • 17 years ago

8 17 17 years ago

manish• 17 years ago

No one is saying any cause. Just prediction. Doesn't rising number of cars, also include electric or other alternative energy?

sleepingbot8• 17 years ago

Rising number of electric cars wouldn't be accounted here, since they don't use fossil fuels.

What the graphic is telling us is, no matter how big the effort is to switch to renewables+ev's, etc., the fast growth of emerging economies, less prone to become green as fast as, say, EU, will lead to a sustainable and even increasing use of fossil fuels.

The best scenario, in my opinion: fossil fuel prices skyrocketing + some political agreements to boost smart subsidies where there are needed, to make renewables cheaper than coal. As Google.org says, RE<C (where "RE" is renewables and "C" is coal.)

60% of EU budget goes to farmers subsidies. USA subsidizes also monocrops such as corn (leading to massive use of corn syrup, packaged food, boosting obesity.)

So less subsidies to lobbies and more to renewables. And more electric cars on the roads.

I've driven some cool EV's and I only say this: it's really fun. Waiting for the 4 new Renaults to come in 2011-2012 and, specially, a smaller-cheaper version of the Tesla Model S.

All that said, I don't own a car.

Towle5• 17 years ago

Electric cars don't use fossil fuels, eh? Hrm...how do you suppose they get the electricity into the batteries? Kittens running on treadmills?

sleepingbot8• 17 years ago

By the way, you can take a look at this video interview with an ex NASA guy who created an EV motorcycles company: http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=939757

Towle5• 17 years ago

Please. We'll have hit peak oil long before then; there's no way that much oil will be produced in 2030.

sleepingbot8• 17 years ago

Peak oil is there. It depends on the data you are looking at, though. Sadly, new sources are being discovered. Several new ones in Latin America, not to say the dirty sources (the really dangerous ones.) Tar sands from Canada (dig in there and then come back to talk to me) and yes, Alaska.

Tar sands are a huge issue in this picture. Just in there, north of your border.

Towle5• 17 years ago

It looks like we've hit global peak, yes, but it's hard to be sure. I went with the phrasing "long before then" just to be on the safe side.

Sadly? We're in no position to be picky about where we get our energy. We currently have no viable alternatives to oil. Combine all the different renewable energy sources you want; they'll never fill the hole left by oil.

Retric• 17 years ago

Let's get real, you can make oil for 80-100$ a barrel from coal, and around 200$ a barrel from air and nuclear power. There is nothing magic about long chain hydrocarbons they are just really cheep right now. So we use them for building roads, (Asphalt), lubricants, plastics, fertilizer, and fuel. Something like 20% of our GDP depended on whale oil we found a cheaper alternative. Once supply becomes expensive you will see oil demand fall like a stone.

rsheridan6• 17 years ago

Suppose self-driving cars are developed by then? A lot of car trips would be rendered unnecessary. Instead of driving a 2 ton car to the grocery store to get a carton of milk, the store would send a 100 pound driverless go-kart to deliver it. And imagine if you had your walls covered with monitors streaming HD video in real time. Video conferencing would be almost as good as face to face contact, again rendering a lot of car and plane trips unnecessary.

How demand for oil will change by 2030

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