Fad or Icon? How the Crocs brand crashed & burned

http://ries.typepad.com/ries_blog/2009/10/how-crocs-crashed.html

by andrewbaron • 17 years ago

33 19 17 years ago

ries.typepad.com

hop• 17 years ago

Yeah, their stock was trading around a P/E of 60 for a while. Its the first and only time I bought a put on a stock. Complete irrational exuberance.

maukdaddy• 17 years ago

Oh come on. Everyone and their mother saw this one coming. Anyone who bought shares of Crocs was only playing a game of timing.

andrewljohnson• 17 years ago

While the stock price has certainly crashed, Crocs is still worth $650M dollars: http://www.google.com/finance?client=ob&q=NASDAQ:CROX

If that's a fad, I hope I can create a fad business someday.

Maybe the Crocs business strategy was exactly right - milk it while it's trendy, and then keep a good business at the end.

It's not like these shoes are Nintendo Wiis. There is absolutely no limit on how many you can produce. If Crocs hadn't saturated the market, then all those knock-offs would have stolen more of the total money to be made on the idea.

mcd• 17 years ago

> If Crocs hadn't saturated the market, then all those knock-offs would have stolen more of the total money to be made on the idea.

That is true. I think the total amount of crocs sold is the same - the only difference is that 90% of them are knockoffs. I am wearing a $2 pair of knock-offs right now.

The problem is that it was a good idea which everyone could copy.

tptacek• 17 years ago

If they hadn't produced to sustain and satisfy demand, they might have made less money, if the trend was destined to falter anyways.

mmphosis• 17 years ago

http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=900866

davidw2• 17 years ago

Question for debate: is twitter a fad or an icon?

olefoo• 17 years ago

This is not a question that can be answered in a span of less than a decade.

davidw2• 17 years ago

Yeah, you're right, but it's an interesting one to ponder.

human_v22• 17 years ago

IMO, twitter itself is a fad, but only because it's somewhat revolutionary. It's becoming a collectively conscious entity, much like the entire internet. Twitter is around because people want to know what others are thinking as soon as they are thinking it.

Twitter will die when we come up with a more efficient form of telepathy.

btn• 17 years ago

Twitter will die when we come up with a more efficient form of telepathy.

Or, the novelty of being continually flooded with pointless and trivial information wears off.

Tarks• 17 years ago

I wondeer if this helped their downfall.

http://www.thebestpageintheuniverse.net/c.cgi?u=fashion

scythe• 17 years ago

While I doubt Maddox alone was a serious influence on anyone's stock price, commentators like him definitely have an influence on people's attitudes; when Crocs became ugly and smelly in the minds of many potential customers, those people were no longer potential customers.

(Whether Crocs are actually ugly and smelly is beside the point, though I agree with maddox here)

RevRal• 17 years ago

I was going to post this because it is the specific reason I never bought Crocs. Also, I liked telling people how ugly their Crocs were, and his page helped.

human_v22• 17 years ago

I think the Vibram Five Fingers helped the downfall too. I bought a pair of the KSOs and there's been two days I haven't worn them since I got them. People that buy crocs want to have neat shoes that are a little eccentric. They stop being eccentric when everyone has them. Vibrams are now more eccentric than crocs, so the fad is fading. This isn't to say that crocs won't continue to have regular customers though.

dantheman• 17 years ago

I could understand these as cheap water shoes for children. I've been a fan of these watershoes for adults: http://www.rei.com/product/780680?cm_mmc=cse_froogle-_-dataf...

They stay on really well, and when combined with neoprene booties provide the best cold water/mountain river shoe I've ever found. I use these when I go kayaking or try to hike up a stream or creek.

They're not that much more expansive, but provide a significantly improved experience, and look a lot nicer. Overall though, I the crocs fit a certain need -- cheap watershoes, for infrequent use, or for children.

beefman• 17 years ago

Funny, I doubled my money on the stock in the last 6 months... I think they're doing great!

Yes it was a fad, and yes they didn't stick to fundamentals with their product line, but there are enough fat people, diabetics, and children in the world to sustain the company for the long haul.

eric_t• 17 years ago

All the knock-offs at one fifth of the price probably helped too...

Fad or Icon? How the Crocs brand crashed & burned

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