Will AI Surpass Human Intelligence By 2020?

http://www.dailygalaxy.com/my_weblog/2009/09/a-singular-something-in-sixty-years.html

by DarrenMills • 17 years ago

9 26 17 years ago

For some definition of human intelligence, yes. For some, no. Same answer as every other year since the invention of the computer. This is not an interesting question (or article) without providing some reason for why your particular definition of human intelligence (the article doesn't give any definition at all) is the right one to consider.

human_v22• 17 years ago

Human intelligence can't exist outside of humans. We have a unique brain structure, allowing us to do what we do. But if we put our brain in a robot, it wouldn't work unless you built the robot in such a way that it believes it is human. Only then can you have an artificial human intelligence. The robot needs to be able to connect with humans on a meaningful level. This would be difficult if everyone just stared at the funny looking robot trying to act human.

I think rather than creating Skynet, we're going to start upgrading our own hardware; adding robots to ourselves until there is no human left. I think with this practice, the new AI would be compassionate towards humans.

Then again I also think about how teenagers hate their parents. Would a super-intelligent being come to loathe their parents (us)? I like to think that a super intelligence would understand that violence doesn't solve anything. But then again, that's why we have Sci-fi -- as a kind of list of things to make sure they don't happen.

Humans are no longer king of the hill. Evolve or perish.

DanielStraight2• 17 years ago

This is a contradiction: "adding robots to ourselves until there is no human left", "the new AI would be compassionate towards humans."

If we use people as the foundation for building AI which eventually abandons all human foundation, then the result would not be human. It's as if you had a car and every day replaced a single part with the part for a different car. In the end, the original car would no longer exist, even though there was, as it were, a continuous camera shot of the transformation.

This is a tangent, I admit, but the contradiction needs resolved.

russell2• 17 years ago

No. Real AI is like fusion power. It will arrive in 40 years, for any definition of now. We are barely scratching the surface of our knowledge of the brain. We are orders of magnitude away from its processing power. We dont even have an agreed upon definition of consciousness. Will ever get there? Sure. But first we will see prostheses like vision and augmentation mind computer interfaces.

fnid2• 17 years ago

Do you believe that Real AI must be modeled on the brain? I'm not sure that is a requirement. I think we can produce AI without fully understanding the brain.

I expect AI to be something greater than the brain. If we use the brain as a guide or the summit of achievement, then at most we'll get only as smart as a human, or group of humans considering the massive amount of information storage and retrieval possible.

I don't know... I wonder.

russell2• 17 years ago

Actually, I dont think real AI will be modeled on the brain, but I do think understanding the brain will be key. There are 100 billion parallel processing components with some significant fraction of a quadrillion interconnections. I think that there is a lot to learn there.

roundsquare2• 17 years ago

Is there some definition of "Real AI" that I'm missing? A quick google search doesn't show me anything useful.

parse_tree• 17 years ago

There is no way in hell AI will "surpass human intelligence" by 2020, using any reasonable interpretation of the sentence. I guess it makes a good headline though.

drcode• 17 years ago

no.

hendler• 17 years ago

yes.

Intelligence in any one measure. We'll create an intellegence that can out-do a human. Because if we can define an intelligence and understand it - coding it up might be the easier part.

As an integrated whole? - mimicking humans? not so sure.

fjabre• 17 years ago

It doesn't need to be that intelligent - it only has to fool us into thinking it is. Remember the Turing test..?

dejb2• 17 years ago

To pass the Turing test AI would most likely need to be a lot more intelligent than humans. Being able to convincingly emulate something is harder than merely running your own 'native operating system'.

fnid2• 17 years ago

Actually, studies have shown that it's not that difficult to fool most humans. One study I remember simply repeated phrases back to the human in the form of a question.

Human: I ate pizza today. AI: You ate pizza today? Human: Yes it was delicious. AI: How delicious was it?

One participant actually guarded her screen from the researchers because she was having such an intimate conversation with what she thought was another person.

jimfl• 17 years ago

Certainly not.

A natural intelligence could eventually coalesce from emergent properties of H. Sapiens networked information processing systems, but not within 10 years.

kunqiana• 17 years ago

perhaps in certain domains of knowledge such as chess.

patio11• 17 years ago

In 2009, yes, it looks like a sure bet that AI will pass human intelligence by 2020.

In 2019, yes, it will look to be a sure bet that AI will pass human intelligence by 2030.

Meanwhile computers will continue doing more and more important things by the boring expedient of taking lots of data and crunching on it. See: credit scores, which nobody considers "artificial intelligence" despite the fact that it essentially involves having a sophisticated algorithm make evidence-based predictions of the future based on what could easily be confused with a character judgment.

Devilboy• 17 years ago

Kurzweil on 2029: Although computers routinely pass the Turing Test, controversy still persists over whether machines are as intelligent as humans in all areas.

diiq• 17 years ago

I would feel more comfortable with such predictions if research were clearly walking the wooded path to AI. Moore's law works because

  1. We already have processors
  2. We have a metric to measure processor speed

Then the path we're hiking is one mostly of incremental improvments, with occasional boulder of innovation.

Whereas the 'intelligent' agents we currently have do not seem particularly similar in quality to intelligence we already know; the path from contemporary AI to strong AI is hardly a trail at all --- it's all boulders; innovation all the way up.

[The claim I make about 'quality' is vague; in part necessarily so. If I could pinpoint my discomfort with current methods, I could propose a new course of action based on a new metric. Nevertheless I feel that the high-mathematical bent of current machine learning techniques (proto-value RL, statistical relational methods, etc) will lead to excellent answers, but does not point towards the flexibility of general intelligence. Yrom the other camp, low-level connectionist methods have not to my mind offered significant results in problem solving.]

tphyahoo• 17 years ago

If AI surpassed even lobster intelligence by that date it would be quite an achievent.

Tichy• 17 years ago

What do Lobsters do that is so complicated?

wlievens• 17 years ago

Basic sight, locomotion, independent operation for years without human supervision. And they taste great.

jeffcoat• 17 years ago

This one's easy: anyone making a clear, testable predication about what's going to happen 10 years from now is going to be Wrong.

joe_the_user• 17 years ago

I think it's worth separating two statements that seem similar: "Computer will surpass human intelligence" and "Artificial Intelligence will surpass human intelligence".

The two statements aren't necessarily equivalent if we say AI involves an explicit understanding of what constitutes intelligence. AI doesn't seem to be making great progress on the understanding intelligence front. However raw computers might exceed human intelligence if we are able to, say, just directly simulate a brain but, say, increase the clock speed and maybe the number of neurons. But if it turns out that we create something highly intelligent that way, we will be creating something potentially dangerous since we really will have no understanding of how benevolent it will or won't be.

Will AI Surpass Human Intelligence By 2020?

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