Ask HN: What happens to real estate prices after self-driving cars?

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8059480

by jpn • 12 years ago

6 6 12 years ago

news.ycombinator.com

Basically my thinking is this:

self driving cars become the norm => no need for personal cars => no need for parking lots & street parking => more supply of land for commercial & residential

self driving cars become the norm => driving is much more efficient => no need for large roads & highways => more supply of land for commercial & residential

self driving cars become the norm => driving is much more efficient => suburbs that WERE 1 hour away are now only 30 minutes away (maybe even less) => there are a lot more suburbs which are practical in terms of commuting (sure, I'll live 100 miles away if I can still get to the city in 45 minutes) => less demand for prime real estate

more supply + less demand => drop in real estate prices

Am I missing something?

If anyone has any thoughts, please leave them in the comments.

natch• 12 years ago

Interesting question, great to see stuff like this here.

suburbs that WERE 1 hour away are now only 30 minutes away..

Possibly, though that kind of a speedup sounds wildly optimistic.

I'd bet the more significant aspect of this would be the ability to get work done during the ride, which also has the same effect that you point out, increasing the radius of a viable commute.

Still, living close will be desirable. Distance ridden is sure to be part of what determines how much you pay for transportation.

hyp0• 12 years ago

a supporting e.g.: housing prices drop off once you pass railway stations (and if you have different fare zones, they also drop at the boundary).

Partially offsetting efficiency is more cars = more congestion.

busterc• 12 years ago

In general, they go higher, if for nothing more than central bank induced inflation. The U.S. has $13Tr in mortgage debt outstanding, so lower prices aren't desirable by those who pull the strings.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/econresdata/releases/mortoutst...

nicholas73• 12 years ago

I think for places like SV, you will find some moderation in housing where people find outlying cities unconnected to BART suddenly livable. The higher end will be unchanged.

Self driving cars would be sweet, but still only one factor in housing prices. It's still a grind to commute whether you have to drive or not, as your free precious hours are wasted in the name of butt-in-seat time.

Plus more than likely California would pass an asinine law to ban people from using mobile devices even with a self driving car. They are already making rules that you have to be able to take the wheel at all times in case the car fails. Kind of beats the point of a self driving car, while ignoring that the program would probably beat 99% of drivers.

S4M• 12 years ago

I think your analysis is right, but I don't think you should limit it to self driving cars.

Take remote work. Currently it's not the norm but it's becoming more and more popular. When/If it's the norm, we will have:

remote worker becomes the norm => no need to live closed to the work places => no need to live in big cities were real estate is expensive => some people will move out

I don't think technological progress making the real estate prices go down would be a bad thing, quite the opposite.

jpn• 12 years ago

I agree it being a good thing.

Ask HN: What happens to real estate prices after self-driving cars?

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