Why Predictify, a faux prediction market site, failed

http://www.transcapitalist.com/transcapitalist/2009/8/8/a-faux-prediction-market-hits-the-dust-predictify-closes.html

by mhil • 17 years ago

8 6 17 years ago

joshu• 17 years ago

Yeah. I don't think prediction markets work without money (well, scarcity...)

gwern2• 17 years ago

There are prediction markets that work fine with play money; the Hollywood one is famously effective and one of the oldest, last I heard.

mhil• 17 years ago

Hollywood Stock Exchange is extremely effective with play money but that is because the people playing on the site are all part of the same industry and there are actual ego issues and incentives to make it to the top of the leaderboard.

gtzi• 17 years ago

As the co-founder of http://askmarkets.com let me add that Predictify seemed to have huge operational costs, and the business model of running public play-money markets, with no specific focus remains to be proven sustainable. Moreover, it was more of a game and less than a market (prediction or not). So far, only real money public markets (Betfair, Intrade) and marketplace-as-a-service providers (Newsfutures, Inkling, Consensus Point) are performing well enough, to my limited knowledge.

tptacek• 17 years ago

How are other markets solving the market maker problem?

Why Predictify, a faux prediction market site, failed

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