Project Marilyn Part I: Non-Patented Cancer Pharmaceutical

https://www.crowdtilt.com/campaigns/project-marilyn-part-i?utm_source=HackerNews&utm_medium=HNPost&utm_campaign=ProjectMarilyn

by ajaymehta • 13 years ago

95 29 13 years ago

crowdtilt.com

pallandt• 13 years ago

For anyone else wondering on what types of cancer this might work on, from [1]:

Q: Which cancers will 9DS work on?

A: We don't have a definitive answer, but initial tests show that it's strongest against some forms of renal (kidney) cancer, melanoma(skin) cancer, and triple-negative breast cancer. We have reason to believe that variants of 9DS will target different cancer types, as well.

[1] http://www.indysci.org/details.html "Details"

ThomPete3• 13 years ago

Well given I already had one melanoma I would be interesting in anything that solves that area. But how do a layman determine whether they are on to something or not?

dnautics10• 13 years ago

(founder of indysci/main researcher on this project here).

That's a great question. And I don't have a good answer for you. Any suggestions would be welcome.

JohnHaugeland2• 13 years ago

Generally speaking you don't.

This is research funding. He's trying to raise money to see if it's something or not. If he can raise the money this way, then he can release it without patent encumbrance, and it's for everyone - including the world's poor.

Most drugs fail. This one probably will too.

I gave because I want to see intellectual property not be the only viable funding path anymore.

tocomment• 13 years ago

This page isn't working? http://www.indysci.org/details.html

dnautics10• 13 years ago

sorry, it should work now. We redid the site and did a CNAME change; some people aren't getting the DNS-updated version yet =(

jdorw• 13 years ago

When you say "open notebook" does that mean outside people can see your results and contribute intellectually to the project? Is there a synthetic route to 9DS? I didn't see much on a quick google search but it doesn't look like a terribly difficult molecule to make.

dnautics10• 13 years ago

see our results, definitely (I'll be working on some software to get this to work, but our fallback is to just use mediawiki). Contribute intellectually - we should have some sort of commenting system.

9DS is probably synthetically tractable, but attachment of the sugar typically uses chemistry that destroys the imine on the other side, and vice versa. So that kicks any industrial processes in the knees.

throwaway_yy2Di4• 13 years ago

For perspective, the average R&D cost per successful drug is somewhere well into the billions:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/matthewherper/2012/02/10/the-tru...

Not sure what the idea is here. Going by cold statistics, this will cost orders of magnitude more than they are seeking from crowd funding. And even then, with overwhelming likelihood, it will fail in clinical trials.

dnautics10• 13 years ago

that is total R&D cost divided by successful drugs. So think, a lot of failed candidates, dumb ideas, and since pharma is siloed and closed, duplicated effort between different companies' skunk works. Also, regulatory burden for things that are lifestyle drugs (think: viagra) is understandably higher than a chemotherapeutic.

The actual cost of getting a chemotherapeutic developed is about 1-2 million in preclinical, and 12-20 million through clinical. Counting lots of inefficiencies, and, as I discuss downthread, we're stacking the deck in our favor.

Indeed, though your broader point is correct, clinical is more expensive and I think ultimately that should be done by a for-profit entity. But crowdfunding can nudge things in that direction by completing the preclinical.

throwaway_yy2Di4• 13 years ago

Of course it's including the failures, we don't know whether your candidate will succeed. I'm reasoning in terms of the expectation value of the a success: the cost of one project such as yours, divided by the probability of it creating a useful drug.

"The actual cost of getting a chemotherapeutic developed is about 1-2 million in preclinical, and 12-20 million through clinical. Counting lots of inefficiencies, and, as I discuss downthread, we're stacking the deck in our favor."

That's only part of the equation. What's the probability that it fails preclinical or clinical trials? What are the historical success rates for chemotherapeutics? (Serious question)

edit: I've Googled up what I think is a relevant statistic? According to this source, of cancer drug candidates which completed US clinical trials between 2004-2011, 6.7% of the ones which entered phase I ended up as approved drugs (the rest failing out). Apparently this is much worse than non-cancer drugs, which have a 12.1% rate.

http://www.biotech-now.org/business-and-investments/2012/02/...

ryanackley• 13 years ago

This may be off-topic but I always wondered where all the billions raised by charities for cancer research end up. It has to be one of the top money earning charitable causes out there.

Are we really just donating money and time to people who end up over-charging us for pharmaceuticals and procedures? I'm not saying we are but I scratch my head when I hear about the astronomical cost of cancer treatment.

toufka• 13 years ago

A significant portion is doled out in 5-7 figure grants to research laboratories for a particular research project with a 2-5 year time-horizon. The projects are proposed by a PI (a researcher), and conducted by students, postdocs, or other scientists. The money goes directly to equipment, materials and sometimes salaries or stipends in order to undertake the particular research project. The materials can be anything from tissue-culture materials, to DNA sequencing, to microscopy equipment, to anything else required to achieve the proposed research goal. And all of that is pricy.

eupharis• 13 years ago

The cost of developing the Windows 3.1 OS in 1992 was $250 million.*

Clearly, software development was expensive and difficult.

In 1992 could an open-source OS on a shoestring budget contribute something of real value?

*adjusted for inflation: $150 million in 1992 = $250 in 2013.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Windows_NT_3.1

shiven• 13 years ago

What about drug resistance? Any data available/planned in that regard?

Curious about it, because I work on this stuff from a structural perspective as my profession.

Project Marilyn Part I: Non-Patented Cancer Pharmaceutical

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