This bitcoin graph has become so accurate again at the moment, it's scary

https://www.tradingview.com/v/sSmoerF3/

by bonbon • 13 years ago

19 36 13 years ago

bonbon5• 13 years ago

It says: "It will end - rapidly - in an epic sell-off as people realise that there are no more greater fools above them"

I was impressed with his prediction of the first top and drop. But if this will play out like the chart says it will. Well... impressive.

What do you think?

a3voices3• 13 years ago

It's incorrect since Bitcoin usage is still high.

https://blockchain.info/charts/n-unique-addresses does not look bearish to me

bonbon5• 13 years ago

It was a short term prediction though. If you press play on the right side of the graph, it will update up to present.

jstalin• 13 years ago

I wouldn't call this "scary." It's not tough to apply basic technical analysis to charts. It may or may not go down, but TA isn't set in stone and only works in the long run in retrospect.

See, e.g., the double top: http://www.forexhit.com/learn-forex/price-patterns.html

subzey• 13 years ago

IMO, market cannot be predicted by just drawing lines. So, there's some kind of outstanding luck or magic.

sbokov• 13 years ago

The accuracy of predicted levels is amazing...

Aardwolf• 13 years ago

There are max 21 million bitcoins.

There are 7 billion people.

So there is 0.003 bitcoin per person.

So if bitcoin will one day become "THE" currency, isn't it more than logical that 1BTC will become worth more than a million dollars or something like that (not that dollars would still exist at that time, but, 1BTC would be worth as much as an average group of 333 people owns)?

Or am I misunderstanding something about currency?

krisdol• 13 years ago

Yeah, you're assuming each of 7 billion people will even have a share of one bitcoin. About half of the 7 billion people today live on less than $2.50 a day, and I don't see how extreme wealth inequality could get anything but worse with bitcoin.

bonbon5• 13 years ago

Theoretically right, but once you have bitcoin becoming mainstream currency, there will be different forks/alt coins that are also equally good and digital currency will be widespread instead of just bitcoin. Just a guess..

yxhuvud• 13 years ago

That is not a 'once' - it is an 'if', and a big one at that.

ErikAugust• 13 years ago

I've given this a little thought at least: http://erikaugust.com/blog/thought-on-bitcoin

a3voices3• 13 years ago

Great way of looking at it. I wonder what percent of the money supply gold is at.

heed• 13 years ago

A single coin can be divided up to 8 decimal places though.

astrodust4• 13 years ago

Could this comment be more Hacker News?

There are not 7 billion people that this will impact. How many of those have no access to a computer of any sort, including a mobile phone? How many are under the age of ten? That cuts out a huge chunk from that figure.

Then subtract all those too old to care about Bitcoin or internet anything.

Then remove from that those that have little faith in anything they can't touch and hold, physical currency, precious metals, or simply commodity items. Considering how reluctant some groups are to even use credit cards for online purchases, regardless of the enormous level of consumer protection provided by that service, this is an insurmountable hurdle for some.

There's at most a billion people in this market and for it to get that pervasive it will take an enormous upswing in popularity. At this point Bitcoin isn't even as popular as Cuban Pesos.

rthomas6• 13 years ago

How many of those have no access to a computer of any sort, including a mobile phone?

Irrelevant to your point, but less than you might think. Currency transfer using texting is popular and highly functional in several poor African countries. I agree with your assessment that these people won't be affected by Bitcoin, but using mobile phones to send money is actually VERY common in some poor countries.

basch2• 13 years ago

How about, this is just one blockchain. Competing cryptocurrencies and blockchains give way more than 21 million coins.

panarky2• 13 years ago

At this point Bitcoin isn't even as popular as Cuban Pesos.

Bitcoin replacing the US dollar is unrealistic.

But if it's this valuable at the Cuban-peso level, how valuable will it be when it's as popular as, say, Canadian dollars or South African rand?

patrickk• 13 years ago

So if bitcoin will one day become "THE" currency...

That's the big question isn't it? Will bitcoin take over, or will another digital cryptocurrency conjured out of the ether take over? (bitcoin 2.0)

So there is 0.003 bitcoin per person.

There's some bitcoin amounts that are likely lost forever, perhaps miners that lost their private keys or whatever, or forgot about their bitcoin wallet from the early days, which will skew the calculations and make the effective total less than 21 million. Also, as others have noted, you are likely to see inequality with bitcoin wealth, just like regular assets and currencies.

bonbon5• 13 years ago

atleast majority of bitcoin millionaires will be more of a sharing culture type and they will play their part in helping the poor. There is higher chance of good with bitcoin wealth than banking wealth. Internet is inherently kind and wealth inequality will be resolved when it happens here. IMO

GhotiFish2• 13 years ago

I don't see why those coins can't re-enter the system. Just tell everyone that coins stagnent for over 10 years will re-enter the system through miners, and have people consolidate and refresh their holdings. There's no reason that old coins can't be reintroduced.

throwaway9848• 13 years ago

Leaving aside the bitcoin angle, this is actually a pretty good primer explanation of the market mechanics and psychology behind technical analysis.

c23gooey• 13 years ago

We have experienced all the bullish news that there is and, for now, will be.

I think he is being rather short sighted here. Especially with news coming out that the Swiss parliament is investigating its potential to act as a legal currency.

This bitcoin graph has become so accurate again at the moment, it's scary

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