Another Silly Startup Analogy

http://diegobasch.com/another-silly-startup-analogy

by seank • 13 years ago

52 21 13 years ago

carimura• 13 years ago

Nice analogy. Feel that way all the time.

thrush• 13 years ago

Just to confirm, because I fear the game show has a loophole, what is preventing you from eyeballing the key when he picks it, memorizing the notches, then you have a much better chance of getting the correct one. Prisoners have been known to memorize notches on a key in order to build duplicates and break out of jail.

RKoutnik• 13 years ago

The correct key wasn't put on full display, and the kids didn't really get much time to look over each key to pick the right one. He may have been able to determine the head shape in that time, but not much else.

codex• 13 years ago

The best startup analogy is that of a band. Everybody is in one, or if not, they want to be. A lot of work and sweat is invested, often after hours. If you get kicked out, or the band breaks up, you start another. Everyone dreams of making it big, but few do, and a lot end up making a lot less money than they think they will due to the record labels (VCs). But the dream lives on.

intrazoo• 13 years ago

I think this is a good one for some [romantic] relationships as well.

The goal is not always to be together forever and/or marry, just to keep making some timeless/edgy/groovy music together.

TallGuyShort• 13 years ago

>> Everybody is in one, or if not, they want to be.

Nah - some people leave the band, look back and just shake their head saying "yeah those were some pretty crazy times".

pellias• 13 years ago

That's when someone realise and came up with the idea of American Idol and screws up the whole process.

markdown• 13 years ago

Techcrunch 50, Demo day?

ronilan• 13 years ago

There is a (very good) movie about that analogy: The Commitments.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Commitments_(film)

realrocker• 13 years ago

The analogy fits.

mindcrime5• 13 years ago

I don't see it. In the game, you pick one key, right? And it either works or it doesn't. It's totally binary, and total chance.

Success in business doesn't work like that. As long as you're alive and aren't dead broke and destitute you can keep trying (keep pulling another key) and there are degrees of success... you might only build a multi-million dollar company and not a billion dollar company. OK, how sad. Or maybe you get acquired for just enough where you, as a founder, walk away with a million even. What a tragedy.

And finally, I believe that skill matters, and that business success is not just a question of chance. Sure, and unlucky "black swan" negative event can short-circuit you, but you don't necessarily need "good luck" to succeed. You can chip away at it slowly, grind, build, grind, build, sweat, bleed, grind, build, and work your way up.

freework• 13 years ago

The point is that some people grind, build, grind, build, sweat, bleed, grind, build their whole lives without ever getting that stroke of good luck that brings success.

wavesum• 13 years ago

Depressing analogy :(

PabloOsinaga• 13 years ago

I was a contestant in that show back then. I did win the skill based game and got to the final round. I was absolutely certain that I was going to pick the winning key (it's nuts to think that, I know). It's funny how even that is similar to startups.

mindcrime5• 13 years ago

What is it with this recent, rampant meme anyway? "Oh, startups, it's all luck". Some people just seem determined to denigrate even the idea that hard work, blood, sweat, tears and sheer force of will can lead someone to success.

I don't buy it. I don't think that was ever true, and I think it's even less true today.

Today we can run startups with far less overhead and at far lower cost, thanks to open-source, cloud computing, social media and other developments, and we can build profitable, successful startups without necessarily needing to build "the next Facebook".

Thanks to @sgblank and others in the Lean Startup community, we have developed much more detailed processes for going from Idea -> Company -> Company with Customers, leaving less to happenstance than ever before.

The Internet - Angel List, Twitter, LinkedIn, Hoovers, and other resources, make it easier than ever to find customers, partners, investors, resellers and the like.

I keep coming back to this old saw, which - despite being a total cliche - has the ring of truth to it:

The harder I work, the luckier I get

or maybe this one:

Luck is where preparation meets opportunity

Closing thought:

They're sitting out there waiting to give you their money. Are you gonna take it? Are you man enough to take it?

...

The money is out there, you pick it up, it's yours. You don't, I got no sympathy for ya[1]

[1] http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8kZg_ALxEz0

baddox• 13 years ago

> Some people just seem determined to denigrate even the idea that hard work, blood, sweat, tears and sheer force of will can lead someone to success.

I think the bigger issue is that there are a lot more people that invest hard work, blood, sweat, etc. and fail than people who do all those things and succeed. It's still silly to say it's all luck, but I think it's fair to say that luck (by which I just mean circumstances that cannot be predicted or controlled by the founders/workers) plays a large part in success.

mindcrime5• 13 years ago

I think the bigger issue is that there are a lot more people that invest hard work, blood, sweat, etc. and fail than people who do all those things and succeed.

I should have explained my position a bit more clearly... what I'm getting at is that, in business, you don't ever fail the way you do in this game show scenario. In the show, you get one shot at the "win" and you win or lose, do or die, game over. In Real Life, as long as you're breathing, you get to keep trying. Failure is never final. If Startup A doesn't succeed, you take the lessons you learned from it, and do Startup B. The only way you ever really fail is when you run out of time.

Given that, I posit that if you are dedicated, determined and persistent enough, you can usually find a way to success through "blood, swear, tears and sheer force of will".

Yes, "black swan" events can come along and cripple you, but I'm treating those as outliers that aren't significant for the point of this conversation. You may, of course, disagree with that position.

rabino• 13 years ago

Have you read the post at all? He's saying that it's hard work, blood, sweat, tears and sheer force of will... and then, luck.

mindcrime5• 13 years ago

Have you read the post at all?

What do you think?

He's saying that it's hard work, blood, sweat, tears and sheer force of will... and then, luck.

Yes, and I'm saying he's wrong, that this analogy is badly flawed.

Another Silly Startup Analogy

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