Anthropic has hired an economist with interesting views on human survival

https://www.ft.com/content/bb04671c-4377-4231-96ef-0f8e57ed5d1b

by Jimmc414 • 26 days ago

10 8 26 days ago

Jimmc414• 26 days ago

quantified2• 26 days ago

In other words, with log utility it is optimal to take a 1 in 3 chance of ending human existence in exchange for a 2/3 chance of dramatically raising living standards by a factor of 55.

With no evidence that living standards raise by much if any. "Abundance" is macro hand-waving. Existence of AI is not in isolation from all other factors on earth as well. AI will not increase the quantity of enjoyable housing, will not lower the costs of energy, will slightly temporarily increase calorie productivity of agriculture but not nutritional productivity and will not replenish soil, will not improve environmental degradation of soil, air, water, and so on. We'll drown in more plastic than ever. People might do things to improve abundance but probably won't any more than they do today, for usual reasons of convenience and profit.

someperson• 26 days ago

A machine that can perfectly selectively weed eliminating the need for herbicides would be significant.

quantified2• 25 days ago

"The Turing Option" by Harry Harrison and Marvin Minsky.

Sure, but it has to be at least noticeably less expensive per acre per year than chemicals. That gets you more organic food, but you need to replenish the soil and grow slower crops to get better nutrition. Our crops today in the USA have less nutritional value per calorie than those of 50 years ago due to selection of faster-growing/faster maturing varieties, and soil quality is yes a function of various -icides as well as other things, so somewhat more organic is better than not. I'm primarily observing that human behavior and competition is in the way of gains.

mrhottakes• 26 days ago

Western economists are essentially clergy for the religion of capitalism. They're all like Wimp Lo, they were all trained wrong, as a joke.

Any analysis that starts with assuming a perfectly spherical, frictionless, rational consumer is fundamentally unserious.

quaddoggy• 26 days ago

Username checks out.

wmf• 26 days ago

It's worth reading the original paper instead of cherry-picked summaries in the press.

moogly• 26 days ago

This is just the same insane Effective Altruist slop we've heard before from the likes of SBF, et. al. Completely divorced from reality.

The "Abundist" movement is already dead.

Anthropic has hired an economist with interesting views on human survival

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