Why would Elon Musk pivot from Mars to the Moon all of a sudden?

https://arstechnica.com/space/2026/02/has-elon-musk-given-up-on-mars/

by cryptoz • 5 months ago

6 17 5 months ago

adyashakti• 5 months ago

why would he give up on FSD? they're both impossible problems with today's tech. maybe it was deliberate overreach, maybe hubris; maybe some of both.

ben_w5• 5 months ago

Assuming he was ever sincere about how he'd "like to die on Mars, just not on impact", the SpaceX development cycle is to throw lots of cheap hardware at the problem to find problems quickly. "Quickly" isn't possible when the launch windows only come every two years. (Short journey times and always-open launch windows for returns are among the reasons that, if I had his wealth and influence, I'd have always gone for the Moon over Mars).

Bluntly though, the lack of any visible progress with SpaceX-branded Sabatier machines already had me suspicious.

JPLeRouzic4• 5 months ago

I feel it's time to seriously consider research on something else than chemical rockets for space exploration.

mytailorisrich3• 5 months ago

I don't think this is the main issue here.

To live on Mars requires a level of autonomy and self-sufficiency that I don't think we know how to do.

On the Moon we can learn but we have softer requirements, and we can still have near real time comms. Anything further and it's "you're alone, no-one can help you, no-one will even hear you in case of emergency". Faster transportation isn't going to fundamentally change that unless it's near Star Trek level.

IMHO, the rocket is just a small part of the problem.

JPLeRouzic4• 5 months ago

Thanks for the insight. I mostly agree but I guess there are many humans on Earth that live without help available within a few hours, for example sailors in international seas.

Even traveling abroad in a developed country carries some risks, if you have some medical issue and are unable to explain yourself because of lack of medical vocabulary, the consequences may be dire.

ben_w5• 5 months ago

If I was a dictator in charge of a tens-of-trillions of dollar-equivalent economy, I'd do that.

Unfortunately, I really do mean "dictator" as we'd need to sustain a lot of R&D for a long time (much longer than a two-term US president for example), and even nations can't afford to spend a huge percentage of their economy on long-term projects so it has to be a fairly limited % of the overall money supply for that period. And one needs to be extremely cautious, no speed-running: a nation cannot afford to have a thematic repeat of the Apollo 1 fire with e.g. a 2000 km long Lofstrom launch loop: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Launch_loop

There's three options for that size of economy:

• The US space industry comes in two parts, (1) a jobs program ("Senate Launch System" etc.) whose stated goals change with almost every new president, and (2) New Space (where Musk got the lion's share, but now he showed what is possible the whole world is quite capable of following the same path). Neither half of this lends itself to an R&D program on this scale.

• The EU is not one nation, it's a glorified free trade area. The EU's budget independently of the member states is nowhere near big enough to consider this.

• That leaves China; they could, I think, if they decide they want to. Will they decide that? I have no idea. Fits belt-and-road, but they may consider it a pointless boondoggle.

JPLeRouzic4• 5 months ago

Thanks for your insights.

I believe you might be a bit pessimistic. The USA studied nuclear ramjets in the 1950, as well as thermal nuclear rockets. Russia has a nuclear propelled missile [0].

India is studying nuclear propulsion [1]

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/9M730_Burevestnik

[1] https://www.indiandefensenews.in/2025/02/isro-successfully-s...

beardyw• 5 months ago

Also in the news A A Milne pivots from Christopher Robin to Winnie the Pooh.

Guestmodinfo• 5 months ago

Keep changing the goalpost; be constantly in the news; mint billions. Good strategy

Zigurd• 5 months ago

Some of you are trying to ascribe intent to a ketamine powered Ouija board. Why did he think he was going to Mars in the first place? Why did he ignore his obligation to build a lunar lander, having been paid to do that? Did he ask any women for a list of requirements to get pregnant and deliver babies on Mars, or is the launch window latency a surprising problem? Folks are being way too kind in ignoring that lot of what Elon throws out there gets backfilled by his cult following and really has had no serious thought behind it from the beginning.

mytailorisrich3• 5 months ago

Why did he ignore his obligation to build a lunar lander, having been paid to do that?

Didn't know about that. That's good insight.

"An uncrewed test flight was planned for 2025 to demonstrate a successful landing on the Moon which has since been delayed. Following that test, a crewed flight is expected to occur as part of the Artemis III mission, no earlier than mid-2027.[3] NASA later contracted for an upgraded version of Starship HLS to be used on the Artemis IV mission." [1]

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starship_HLS

tim-tday• 5 months ago

They can get paid for the moon stuff.

Why would Elon Musk pivot from Mars to the Moon all of a sudden?

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