After 20k Losses, Russia Is Now Functionally Out of Armored Vehicles

https://daxe.substack.com/p/mark-the-date-russia-is-now-functionally

by vinnyglennon • 1 year ago

29 18 1 year ago

daxe.substack.com

vntok• 1 year ago

Can someone knowledgeable about the state of this conflict give a few pointers on how much of this post is cope vs actual fact?

It certainly seems like we've been hearing about the near depletion of russian armor for 2.5 years...

tomalaci• 1 year ago

Exact stats are hard to come by but depletion of vehicles has certainly been noticed in battlefield footage: they started with proper military grade vehicles, went down to WW2 era vehicles, then down to light vehicles, civilian vehicles, motorcycles, scooters... donkeys.

That doesn't mean they are completely out of modern stuff but you just dont see it being used on frontlines anymore.

What is happening, however, is the rapidly developing drone warfare which is becoming terrifyingly efficient to conduct warfare in. I dont think we are far off from fully autonomous kamikaze drones at mass produced scale, at dirt cheap price.

It pretty much makes a lot of previously developed modern missiles or even defense systems (e.g. patriots) useless due to how cheaply and effectively you can launch kamikaze drone swarms.

tw042• 1 year ago

It will require a modern Geneva convention or the extinction of humans eventually. Drones are the modern equivalent of chemical and biological weapons.

clickety_clack• 1 year ago

I’ve been seeing these stories since the opening of the current war. They said the machines were breaking down due to poor maintenance on the way to Kiev and couldn’t be replaced. Yet, here we are years later and they’re still at it.

verdverm• 1 year ago

While Russia has certainly depleted much of their storage that could be refurbished, they will never run out because they are building more of them every month

There is good OSINT on the makeup of equipment losses by type. Simple numbers often tend to be misleading because some losses are not total and can be repaired

general1726• 1 year ago

Indirectly you van have a look on covert cabal YT channel, who is analyzing satellite images of Russian storages. They are essentially empty or near empty.

Directly you can have a look on subs like r/combatfootage and you can tell what year is footage coming from just by used vehicles - The more unusual the vehicle leading the assault looks like, the more recent the footage is. You will gradually get from normal military columns to BMPs and MT-LBs (Tractor for pulling artillery) to Dessert Crosses (golf carts), trucks, old tanks with huge amount of slat armor to soak the FPVs (Assault Barns) followed by BMPs dropping current suicide squad to quickly drive away before it will get hit by artillery or FPV to having suicide squads on bikes today.

Rarity of Russian armored assault today confirm what author is saying. Russians can still make more modern tanks, but is is low number of dozens a year. Not really useful when Russians were able to lose up to a hundred a month when tanks and IFVs were in abundance.

tim333• 1 year ago

There's been a depletion of armor on both sides. Neither is getting far using tanks. The frontline is mostly dominated by drones. Russia is sending about 500 missiles and long range drones a day at Ukrainian civilians mostly, Ukraine is sending long range drones at Russia's industry and military.

Not sure how it'll play out. Russia's economy is struggling and they may need to taper things off. Broadly it's a bit of a stalemate.

gausswho• 1 year ago

After 20k Losses, Russia Is Now Functionally Out of Armored Vehicles

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