Why you should fail early and fail often - the numbers

http://www.maximise.dk/blog/2009/01/why-you-should-fail-early-and-fail.html

by mixmax • 18 years ago

21 18 18 years ago

snitko• 18 years ago

Currently I'm considering ideas and want to choose one to work on in the following 6 months. And I found that even though I know ideas don't cost a thing, it's crucial to choose a good and promising one, not just start working on a random idea saying "implementation only matters". It seems to me now, that you can almost never know if your project is a success, but you can often tell, if it's a fail. Thus, increasing your chances.

The bottom line is that posts like that create an illusion that no matter what you do, math will make you rich. This is especially untrue, because with each new random project, I assume, your motivation and desire go level down.

mixmax5• 18 years ago

You should always, obviously, pick the idea that you believe in the most. Both because it's probably the best (assuming you have good judgement) and because it's the one you will be most motivated to work on.

The reason I wrote the post is that I've seen people hanging on to a project long after it was apparent to everyone else that it wouldn't fly. I've made that mistake myself. I don't want others to make the same mistakes I did if it can be avoided.

And math won't necessarily make you rich - but it might improve your chances :-)

jhancock2• 18 years ago

your post here is better rational than the other stuff (although it was all well written).

I think it would be very useful to define processes by which entrepreneurs can better determine if they are hanging on too long. Processes that have more depth than just playing with numbers. Perhaps its simply soliciting more critical feedback from others at key points along the path?

11ren• 18 years ago

I've calculated this too (the same round numbers too: 10%, 10 years).

He doesn't mention that you might learn something from each attempt (if you stay in the same industry).

I think your success is (virtually) inevitable - unless there's something that you must learn that you won't learn.

ojbyrne3• 18 years ago

Implying that 10 year's work on a project doesn't increase your odds in the slightest over 1 year's work seems implausible, and it's easy to draw the obvious conclusion - why spend a year on anything? Why not a month, or even a day? Then you get 3650 (+ a couple more for leap years) ideas to try.

mixmax5• 18 years ago

Of course spending ten years on a project increases your chances of success, but that's missing the point. What is interesting is that it has to increase by 1000% in relation to starting ten projects in ten years.

ojbyrne3• 18 years ago

I don't think it's missing the point. I brought up the extreme example of switching every day to show that the math is specious.

mattjung2• 18 years ago

From the great book "Founders at Work", I had the impression that a common point of success is to persue an idea to a very end, to fully understand its potential, to not accept failure too early, but to accept to modify and even transform it. The model that suggests "Restart with another idea until one works" may therefore lead to abandon projects as failures that are on the way to success.

mixmax5• 18 years ago

The people that were so wildly successful that they were featured in founders at work are the ones that made it through the funnel that starts with an guy in a garage and an idea.

If you look at the funnel from the other side you have maybe 10.000 people with a project they think will become the next Apple, yet there's only one Steve Wozniack.

Founders at work is a great book, but it's not a direct recipe for success. The funnel is a one-way street: If you read the book and do exactly like Joe Kraus you won't necessarily end up like Joe Kraus.

Besides a lot of rich and famous people have had many failures before they succeeded. Did you know that Seth Godin did Internet White pages (as a book no less...), the first fax board for the mac, A nationwide game show using 900 numbers, a fundraising company that offered lightbulbs for sale to high school bands among others. According to himself he has had at least 20 serious career-ending failures. (http://sethgodin.typepad.com/seths_blog/2008/10/failure-as-a...)

But it's a fine line...

mattjung2• 18 years ago

I agree with your argument that only looking at successful examples without taking into account the failed examples might lead to distorted information and wrong conclusions.

But I critize the simplicity of your model that ignores crucial yet tricky questions like: How long does it take to detect a failure? How can I detect it, which criteria should I use? How to avoid "false positives"? A simple "try and repeat every year"-scheme will most probably lead to 10 failures in 10 years...

timr• 18 years ago

Keep in mind that most of the stories that FOW relates involve a lot of re-starts. Flickr was originally a game, PayPal was originally a Palm app, etc. The key to persistence is to keep trying for the big-picture goal (becoming a successful entrepreneur); you don't want to keep flogging on an idea that isn't working out.

Of course, knowing when to quit is a skill that takes time and experience (with failure) to cultivate. In some ways, then, it's intriguing that setting an expiration date on your project might be the best strategy for overall success. Try everything for a year, and if it isn't working, try something else.

Why you should fail early and fail often - the numbers

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