The affordable housing shortage is reshaping parts of rural America

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/economics/affordable-housing-shortage-reshaping-parts-rural-america-rcna181700

by PaulHoule • 2 years ago

24 52 2 years ago

quantified• 2 years ago

So long as population is growing, we'll trade farmland for housing. It's not popular to say that we have multiples of the necessary population to ensure humanity's continuation.

nemomarx2• 2 years ago

shrinking population means no continually growing economy and explodes our pension/ social security systems, so it's necessarily unpopular. you'd need some revamps to the economy first.

of course having a lot of kids is also not that popular in the West, so.

PaulHoule2• 2 years ago

I think even less popular in the sinosphere.

mhog_hn• 2 years ago

“Howdy young fellas, please work hard to support the pensions of my NIMBY generation! Maybe if you work hard you also get to have a house once you reach the retirement age :-)”

bobthepanda• 2 years ago

having kids is not popular anywhere rich and modern enough.

the only OECD country with fertility rate above 2.1 is Israel and that's mostly because they have a highly fertile minority that eschews much of modern life.

vinyl7• 2 years ago

I think the oligarchs are betting on AI and robots to replace us peons

WarOnPrivacy2• 2 years ago

of course having a lot of kids is also not that popular in the West, so.

A twenty-fold increase in parenting time (from my parents' generation) + our modern 4 income economy = no clear path for typical_income couples to start families.

rufus_foreman• 2 years ago

> shrinking population means no continually growing economy

"The U.S. Census Bureau today released July 1, 2024, population estimates for the nation and states. The U.S. population reached 340.1 million, up 0.98% from 336.8 million on July 1, 2023 — the highest year-over-year increase since a jump of 0.99% between 2000 and 2001."

-- https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2024/12/population-es...

tzs• 2 years ago

I'm not sure pensions/social security systems would be infeasible without a growing population. When they operate by having the payments into the system from current workers pay for the benefits of retired workers then yes, you may need a continually growing workforce to keep them going.

But if the payments in by workers were put into a fund that invested conservatively with the goal of just keeping up with inflation, that could be sufficient to grow enough to pay for their benefits when they retire.

I recently calculated if such a system would have worked with my US Social Security (SS) taxes. At ssa.gov you can download a record of all your reported earnings by year.

They also have tables for converting amounts from past years to current dollars. I believe the conversion is based on income percentiles rather than inflation, but from what I've been able to tell those are reasonable close to each other.

For example I see that in 1986 I earned exactly $42 000. In today's wages that would be $161 537. From another table at ssa.gov I see that in 1986 they would have withheld 5.7% of my pay for SS, and my employer would have also paid 5.7%, so that is $4 788 contributed to SS, which in today's dollars $18 415.

If all of that was just put in an account somewhere that earned just enough to just keep up with inflation it would have enough that if I retired next year it could pay my monthly SS benefit for 16 years. The life expectancy of a US male at the age I will be next year is 18 years, so that's pretty close.

I did another calculation where I assumed that my monthly SS contributions went into a fund that each month earned interest at a rate that matched the current T-bill rate. That turned out to not earn as much, but still earned enough to pay my monthly SS benefit for around 14 years.

If we assume that some of the fund especially when the worker is far from retirement is invested in something that aims for better growth than merely keeping up with inflation, but still is reasonably safe, there should be no trouble growing it to enough that when the worker retires the fund has enough to cover their benefits until death.

I did a similar calculation with my Medicare contributions. My total contributions for that, in today's dollars, are such that if I start Medicare next year would be enough that if paid monthly over my life expectancy and put toward the premiums from a health insurance plan from my state's ACA marketplace the amount the amount extra I'd have to pay monthly is pretty close to the current Medicare premium.

As with SS, if the contributions were managed for more growth than just keeping up with inflation, but still conservatively, it would be enough for an ACA marketplace plan.

I wonder if there are any pension/social security systems that actually work like that?

WarOnPrivacy2• 2 years ago

we'll trade farmland for housing.

Shrinking birthrates aside, we have undeveloped land near population centers - but it tends to be dominated by counterdevelopment mindsets (NIMBY, onerous zoning).

moralestapia2• 2 years ago

there was one grocery store, longhorn cattle down the road and no lights on the horizon at night

Is this supposed to be a downside? I'd pay extra for that.

nemomarx2• 2 years ago

well the one grocery store part is pretty inconvenient if you need specialty stuff. very hard to find masala for your curries or good tofu probably.

dgfitz3• 2 years ago

I think a lot of people go their whole lives without ever cooking or eating tofu or masala.

notyourwork• 2 years ago

Not everywhere has to have everything.

moralestapia2• 2 years ago

They're still an hour from Dallas, I wouldn't mind doing one trip every weekend to stock on all the other random stuff you need. It would be kind of fun, tbh.

Also, they most likely have Amazon delivery.

Eumenes• 2 years ago

same. i live very rural and my urbanite co-workers are literally mystified when they hear i don't have doordash or uber eats delivery (we get some credits for team lunch). like "how do you eat?" level of questioning.

JodieBenitez• 2 years ago

That's a good sight for the stars

chasd005• 2 years ago

I think Starlink and amazon delivery reach will have a bigger impact reshaping rural America than affordable housing. Granted, affordable housing is a big draw. There's so much entertainment and work available online that a solid Internet connection can make up a lot for the isolation of rural living. In fact, that isolation probably will come as a welcome relief to many people who make their living on the Internet.

My wife and I bought 20 acres in the mountains of SE Oklahoma (really just hills) at the height of the pandemic. It's a nice place to escape to for my boys and we're working on building out a cabin. We have power/water and with starlink have pretty much everything we need. My 2024 taxes on the land were literally $9.00 :)

PaulHoule2• 2 years ago

It amazed me how people would say we could not afford $3000 a head to run optic fiber to rural homes ($5 a month for the 50 year lifespan of the fiber) but instead we're supposed to dogpile in coastal cities where it costs upwards of $500k to build a modes housing unit.

polski-g• 2 years ago

Your cost estimate for running fiber is missing one to two zeroes.

marssaxman2• 2 years ago

My wife and I tried that, but we did not find that there was any amount of anything available online which could make up for the boredom and loneliness of rural life. We left our affordable house in the sticks behind and moved back to expensive ol' Seattle, where we have friends, things to do, places you can go without having to drive there, and a much better life overall. We'll never go back.

I did enjoy building an elaborate treehouse while we were out there. We still fantasize about building (or maybe just buying) a cabin in the woods, or out on one of the islands. But it's one thing to have a place you can escape to when you feel like it, and quite another to be stuck there all the time.

chasd005• 2 years ago

yeah my wife really wants to move there but i grew up in the country/sticks and understand the implications. We're considering it a retirement backup plan. like if our finances fall apart or something at least we can go there and huddle together in the cabin heh.

galleywest2002• 2 years ago

Having outdoor activities such as hiking, camping, kayaking, gardening/farming would make rural living a lot less dull.

leaves83829• 2 years ago

but once you finish that cabin, those property taxes will probably go up a huge amount, right?

i'm jealous. This is such a great idea, I wish i could do it.

chasd005• 2 years ago

Late to your comment but, yes, it will. I love telling people about it because it’s so crazy to me. I keep the bill on my desk when I need a smile haha.

One interesting thing about SE Oklahoma is the way people make deals with each other that don’t involve money. Idk if it comes from the majority of the state being Native American but there are handshake/barter deals all over the place. People seem reluctant to bring money to the deal, it’s always “I’ll do this for you if you can do that for me” type setups.

thefaux2• 2 years ago

I don't think that this level of isolation is good for most people though obviously I will not speak for you. I am a part of several in person communities that cannot be replaced by fast internet.

jeffbee2• 2 years ago

Counterpoint: there are not, in fact, "densely packed homes" in or anywhere near Celina, Texas, and that is the main problem.

chasd005• 2 years ago

You're right and your post sounds like you know the area. I went to HS in Collinsville (class of 1995) which is about 15-20 minutes west of Celina/Gunter and hasn't seen anywhere near the level of growth of other towns. I understand how long term residents are probably experiencing culture shock as the rate of growth is just unreal in some of those areas. A neighborhood at any density popping up in Celina would be a shock to anyone who grew up there. Another even more extreme example is Prosper TX which is south of Celina about 15 miles or so. When we played them in basketball Prosper still had the confederate flag painted in the middle of the gym floor.

davidw2• 2 years ago

As a 'housing theory of everything' guy, this has a lot of repercussions

* It's bad for the environment. A lot of these people are moving to where they can afford housing and continuing to drive in to jobs.

* Big commutes are stressful, and probably lead to people having fewer opportunities, lowering productivity. As well as simply being more miserable.

* Paving over a bunch of farmland isn't great, if people could live closer in.

jeffbee2• 2 years ago

4 houses per acre and driving everywhere is the worst possible form of settlement. We've got to figure out a way to stop doing it.

marky19912• 2 years ago

Definitely, there should never be more than one house per acre really.

fundad• 2 years ago

she said. “I’ve had 27 years of it, so I can’t really complain, but it has become very precious to me now.”

This is exactly it, people want what she wanted and she has to share the community and her builder husband shares in the success. Making productive use of under-utilized land is exactly how civilization works.

seanalltogether• 2 years ago

Does anywhere in America subsidize the cost of tearing down low density housing for the sake of building high density. It feels like property developers are more incentivesed to expand outward rather then upward

chasd005• 2 years ago

i think it depends on the area. I live in an area just South of downtown Dallas TX called Oakcliff. There's a really popular neighborhood about a mile from me called Bishop Arts. Over the last 5 years or so many blocks of 20 or so homes have been bought, demolished, and replaced with really gigantic apartment complexes. i guess that's good for density, sucks to be the people/community that already lived there though.

onewheeltom• 2 years ago

I lived on W colorado blvd in Oak Cliff from 1990 to 1997. Don’t know if I would want to live there now.

itqwertz• 2 years ago

Suburbs -> city -> rural is a common life path for folks these days. I suspect a lot of those that make it out to the country are in for a surprise regarding amenities, socialization, and distractions/entertainment. Rural living filters out a lot of friends and family who see a one-way 30-minute drive as too long for a visit. I see that as a good thing :-)

galleywest2002• 2 years ago

Rural living filters out a lot of friends and family who see a one-way 30-minute drive as too long for a visit.

Thats less than a work commute to Americans. A midwesterner will drive 3+ hours just to see family on a Saturday.

johnea• 2 years ago

For a great documentary on the conversion of fertile agricultural land to suburbs, watch:

The Real Dirt On Farmer John

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Real_Dirt_on_Farmer_John

I'm sure the video is on youboob or some other user exploitation site...

The affordable housing shortage is reshaping parts of rural America

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