SWPC issues first G4 geomagnetic storm watch since 2005

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/swpc-issues-its-first-g4-watch-2005

by jwjohnson314 • 2 years ago

84 30 2 years ago

swpc.noaa.gov

If you have a pair of eclipse glasses you may be able to see the sunspot cluster causing all the action with them, it’s enormous.

icegreentea2• 2 years ago

I just went a took a look, seems like I could see sunspots around the 3oclock position.

uticus2• 2 years ago

Just verified I can see also, Central US. Wow that's huge to be visible from earth with no magnification.

sukhavati5• 2 years ago

I'm quite worried as I'm on a transatlantic flight during this event, and there have been 6 solar eruptions with at least 4 CMEs (NOAA not up to date with the enlil spiral just yet). Here are a couple useful links I'm using to keep track of this event: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center dashboards [1], FlightAware Flight Delays and Cancellations [2] and NOAA Global Positioning System Community Dashboard [3], Prof. Mathew Owens post [4]

[1] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/aviation-community-das... [2] https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/today [3] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/global-positioning-sys... [4] https://x.com/mathewjowens/status/1788655731471696372

DoctorOetker• 2 years ago

in link [4], what timezone is displayed? trying to figure out if I will be at the day or night side

sukhavati5• 2 years ago

all of them are UTC I believe, Prof. Mat answer to a question about the tz on the post replies

atonse2• 2 years ago

I came here to say the same. I will also be on a transatlantic flight on the 12th. Is there anything to be worried about with airplane electronics systems in flight, or is it more potentially on the side of "there might be flight delays"?

sukhavati5• 2 years ago

I was trying to find stuff around Oct 2003 when the last event of this magnitude took place, but I wasn't able to find anything comparable. From what I can tell the forecast is more mild on the 12th UTC, so I wouldn't worry that much about that. I was worried in my case because my flight leaves pretty much at the apex of the geomagnetic storm.

I think we can expect delays, GPS being unresponsive, radio issues, and some control tower congestion & issues. Can't really comment with any more detail.

mikewarot2• 2 years ago

Is there anything to be worried about with airplane electronics systems in flight, or is it more potentially on the side of "there might be flight delays"?

An airplane is a big closed conductive tube, not connected to the ground. There's nothing to worry about. I'd happily fly on those days.

As for why we worry about the storms on the ground - the main effects of Geomagnetic storms on the ground involve DC currents generated in power grids that span hundreds of miles, at the ends of those transmission lines, are transformers engineered to most efficiently use the transformer steel by almost pushing it to saturation, at which it rapidly loses the ability to contain more lines of flux. This saturation can then allow almost unlimited amounts of current to flow, turning the transformer into a space heater, connected to gigawatts of power. Things can then very rapidly get out of hand, circuits fault, opening lines, causing power to be diverted elsewhere, until the entire grid goes down.

No such issues can happen in an airframe.

idontwantthis• 2 years ago

Are you worried enough to not fly?

op00to2• 2 years ago

Why are you worried? Not saying you're wrong to be worried, but I'm interested to know what the actual concern is.

afruitpie• 2 years ago

My concern comes from my own naïveté. I don’t know enough about flying to know how concerned I should be.

Hearing there’s a storm that affects navigation is an eyebrow-raiser, especially when sitting at an airport gate like I am.

sva_• 2 years ago

This site is also pretty good:

https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/

Looks promising so far.

Edit: damn those values are crazy. Gonna climb the mountain tonight. Fingers crossed for a clear sky

FL410• 2 years ago

I am confused by the slide, which mentions in the first bullet point that this is the first "G4" since 2005, but in the last bullet point says there was one in March.

Shank• 2 years ago

It’s the first G4 watch, but not the first G4 event. In other words, the prior G4 event was not predicted. It can happen that an event is more significant when it arrives than what was predicted, which is what happened here.

webdoodle2• 2 years ago

It also resulted in Aurora visible in Mexico.

anileated• 2 years ago

A G4 storm was forecast yesterday, but guess what—a G5 was observed: https://www.spaceweather.gov/news/g5-conditions-observed. As with G4 before, not predicted.

uticus2• 2 years ago

it's a typo, Mar 2024 was a G3, not G4. ref https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39796973 and link in comments there.

[edit] i stand corrected, there was a G4 in march. sibling comment is correct. ref https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/severe-g4-geomagnetic-storms-...

webdoodle2• 2 years ago

Tony Philips with NASA runs Spaceweather.com. Yesterday he posted a pic, with an overlay from the 1859 Carrington Event sunspot. They are the same size. Let that sink in.

https://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=09&month=05&...

sukhavati5• 2 years ago

the solar spot is comparable in size but the CME were significantly (100x) less energetic than is estimated for Carrington. With that said, the Earth's magnetic field has weakened by ~15% since the 1800s so there's that...

briantakita• 2 years ago

There are 6 X-class flares. Solar Flares can cannibalize each other. If the different flares travel at different velocities. Leading to a larger impact. Obviously, we were not able to measure how many solar flares came from the Carrington Event or if this cannibalization occurred.

ablation• 2 years ago

Studies suggest that Carrington-class storms occur once every 40 to 60 years, so we're overdue. Don't worry, though. The four CMEs currently en route to Earth--even combined--are probably no match for the monster CME of 1859. The Carrington Event won't happen again this weekend.

ChrisArchitect• 2 years ago

[dupe]

More discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40315394

mikewarot2• 2 years ago

One of these days I'll see the Northern Lights.... somehow I don't think this will be it. 8(

SWPC issues first G4 geomagnetic storm watch since 2005

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