McNamara Fallacy

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McNamara_fallacy

by sherilm • 2 years ago

24 23 2 years ago

en.wikipedia.org

dookahku• 2 years ago

this reminds me of when Yahoo banned work from home in the late 2000s because they said the VPN data said they weren't working

uoaei• 2 years ago

This comes up constantly in debates around philosophy of science, particularly physics, but also the mind.

pflenker3• 2 years ago

I see that a lot in hiring. We can measure grades and experience, we can count diplomas or certifications, so we focus on these things and disregard soft skills like the ability to work with other people.

itsoktocry2• 2 years ago

so we focus on these things and disregard soft skills like the ability to work with other people.

Because it's been shown, time and time again, that people can't really judge "good" soft skills versus "bad".

silvestrov• 2 years ago

more likely: it is much easier for awful people to temporarily pretend to be a nice person than it is to trick grades.

pflenker3• 2 years ago

that’s literally what TFA is about.

pflenker3• 2 years ago

It’s not a black and white thing. You can increase the likelihood of finding someone suitable for the work by various means. For example, if someone who will actually work with the person closely is involved in the hiring process you increase the likelihood of spotting someone who might not be a good fit. It’s a tricky topic and for sure not a binary yes/no thing, but giving up on it because it can’t be done is the wrong response (and also what the article is about)

swframe2• 2 years ago

I think more generally, the issue is that people want to believe lies.

antisthenes3• 2 years ago

It's only a fallacy if you have garbage or incomplete data.

Someone with poor reading comprehension will read this as "trusting the data over a more holistic approach", when the actual criticism would be something like "making decisions based on metrics than can be easily measured, rather than ALL metrics is a mistake".

Generally speaking, if you have comprehensive and complete data and domain competence, it is not a mistake to make a decision based on objective metrics.

yusefnapora• 2 years ago

Have you ever been in _any_ situation in which you've had complete data?

antisthenes3• 2 years ago

Absolutely, it happens all the time. I'm surprised to even hear this question on a nerdy computer platform.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Game_theory

Plenty of games with complete information. Here's a famous one.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chess

itsoktocry2• 2 years ago

So if you don't have "complete" data, you just start winging it? I never understand this argument.

You measure what you can, that moves you forward.

LaundroMat2• 2 years ago

"Not everything worthwhile can be measured, and not everything that can be measured is worthwhile."

sp332• 2 years ago

A long, informed, and funny essay about this recently https://docseuss.medium.com/the-biggest-threat-facing-your-t...

YouWhy• 2 years ago

One of my acquaintances wrote this piece a couple of years back, asking if Meta/FB's use of product engagement metrics as a signal for IC performance was a case of the McNamara fallacy:

https://4qbits.com/posts/2022-02-04-the-meta-fb-downturn-as-...

moribvndvs• 2 years ago

The technological society[0] in practice

0 - https://archive.org/details/JacquesEllulTheTechnologicalSoci...

smitty1e• 2 years ago

You can't mention RSM without mentioning PPBS, which he begat and continues to bleed money at a Pentagon near you => https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Output_budgeting

McNamara Fallacy

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