Danish pension fund to sell its Tesla shares over union dispute

https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/danish-pension-fund-sell-its-tesla-shares-over-union-dispute-2023-12-06/

by hnuser0000 • 3 years ago

69 16 3 years ago

Tesla's market valuation (market cap) is 16x that of GM despite having half the revenue, although with 33% more profit last year.

What is the bull case here? They don't have a monopoly on EVs anywhere anymore. Is Tesla really expected to capture the automobile market?

rapsin4• 3 years ago

they're not a car company and are not saddled with debt

piva002• 3 years ago

They make and sell cars, they are a car company. Their added value might be some software but what you are saying is akin to calling WeWork a tech company. No, it's a real estate company.

Software has eaten the world, it's not because there's software as part of the product offering that it makes it a software company... Without selling cars Tesla would have nothing (and no, the power business wouldn't exist without the cars).

Turskarama• 3 years ago

It's absolutely baffling, their share price already dropped a fair bit but I'd say it's still massively overpriced. How any professional trader can justify holding Tesla shares right now is beyond me. Maybe people are thinking they're going to end up making bank from the supercharger network?

taylodl2• 3 years ago

High risk, high reward. It's not necessarily irresponsible for a trader to own Tesla stock, but it would be for them to be overloaded on Tesla stock. Too much risk. Still, your portfolio should have high risk, high reward entries.

With regards to Tesla, I understand the high risk part. What I'm failing to see is the high reward part. Tesla is currently valued more than every single other major automotive manufacturer on Earth - combined! That makes absolutely no sense to me. No, I don't think their supercharging network gives them an advantage either as all the prime real estate along the US interstates (and it's a similar situation all around the world)_are already owned by Royal Dutch Shell, BP, et. al. Do Tesla investors really think these energy companies are just going to roll over and die because EVs take over? Really? Those guys are just waiting for the standards to settle out and have a large enough market to make it worth their while. Their business model for the past couple decades now has been focused on getting people into their convenience marts - EVs play right into that business plan.

I have no idea why people think Tesla is going to end up on top.

adocomplete• 3 years ago

I think their current valuation is held up by the promise of FSD. If it comes to fruition, it would be huge, but (as a beta fsd user) I don't think they will ever deliver on their promise, and as soon as they admit that I expect the stock price to come back to reality.

4death4• 3 years ago

Profits and growth are way more important than revenue.

Google’s revenue is only 2x GM’s, and yet they’re worth almost 100X more.

zx8080• 3 years ago

Unfortunately, GM does not sell ads, unlike Google.

slashdev• 3 years ago

As a car company it makes no sense. As a tech company delivering on self driving, robots, etc. Maybe.

If it wasn’t an Elon Musk company, I would say impossible. But his companies have a way of delivering the impossible. So maybe.

hindsightbias• 3 years ago

“Tesla Inc.’s most recent quarterly vehicle production volume came to 430,500 units”

“GM Sold Over 20,000 EVs In Q3 In US, But Growth Disappoints”

One is not like the other. One has ~$120B in debt, one does not. One can rely on more gov’t bailouts while the pther is not likely to need them.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/715421/tesla-quarterly-v... https://insideevs.com/news/689723/us-general-motors-bev-sale...

jamesTee49• 3 years ago

Tesla outlook is not good. Main growth for them is basically automobile going EV where they have monopoly and they are energy supplier thru dominating battery tech. For EVs, they are able to dominate because other big ones like GM, Ford, Toyota havnt really going into EV market. In next 5 years every car manufacturers will be releasing their EV models and they have vastly superior production know-how compare to Tedla. Think Tesla like Blockbusters before Netflix HBO and Disney+ joining in. Cost of production of their EVs are no where cheaper than majority of EV manufacturers in Asia. Take BYD for example, they absolutely dominate China. In China, EV buses are a common thing. Meanwhile Tesla still struggling to make their cybertruck. Also a big growth is people believe Elon is at the forefront of selfdriving. If you dig down Tesla incidents worldwide on mysterious crashes, Uber would look like golden boy on that front. Then on battery tech, Tesla is literally the new Solyndra. Chinese market on battery tech now is at a stage no subsidies needed and production both quantity and quality exceed even Korean and Japamese manufacturing. Meanwhile everyone talking about Tesla S only getting half subsidies. I dont see how Tesla able to compete on that front even if they miraculously have German and Swedish quality next year. Remember Lehman Brothers, Citibank have their peak about 2 years before their permanent crash. Tesla is widely known to be overvalued. You want to sell it to the next suckers believing it will worth more before that suckers realized it is not. Danish did the right thing to get rid of Tesla. The only thing really worth some consideration is Elon making X as western Wechat with builtin Amazon+Uber+banking sub-apps in. That remain to be seen. In the meantime I put money into MS and AMD as they are a bit undervalue when you consider they have dominating asset in AI.

piva002• 3 years ago

Take BYD for example, they absolutely dominate China. In China, EV buses are a common thing.

China seems to be electrifying their fleet extremely fast. My girlfriend was working in Guilin and was surprised on how quiet all the traffic was because most of it were EVs already. Scooters, cars, busses, EVs were much more common than ICEs.

yetanother12345• 3 years ago

They are a very heavily advertised first mover in the (perceived) next-generation of automobiles.

Investors operate on discounted net present value of future income streams. Perceived future income streams, that is. Investors may be wrong, and they know it. But, they tend to act and think similarly, so quite often you will see a band-waggon effect in various investment categories.

At the moment the EV market is in (entering, actually) the growth phase and the traditional car market has topped the curve ages ago. Yet there is not many obvious recipients for investor money in the new market as most actors are still "one foot in the grave" ie. they are also in the traditional car industry. There are not many "EV-only" actors. This by itself dictates a premium (I am not saying it is sane behaviour on the long term, only that it is predictable, explainable, and somewhat logical).

So, Tesla gets far too much capital going in. Because, where else should it go? It's perceived as an unicorn at the moment. Investors know that it will not continue to be so as a growing market in early growth phase means that dynamics will change dramatically along the way, and future outcomes are close to impossible to predict as it hasn't really been invented yet.

But, cars are a massive industry. And, investors figure they will continue to be. So they have to be in there somewhere. And Tesla is new growth while the established players are playing on an entirely different field. So, there is potential.

As long as there is potential new investors will invest, and you will have positive returns. This means that you are not wasting your money investing in Tesla, even though you know positively that at some point the market will change, and there is no law dictating that Tesla will emerge as the winner (or survive at all).

OTOH many case studies I've read seem to imply that those that "invent the category" seem to disappear longer down the road as established players in related industries (or, entirely new ones) ramp up and enter. But by then investor money will have moved on too. Or, so the individual investor thinks. S/he might be right, or OOB - time will show. If you're not invested yourself you need not worry.

rsynnott• 3 years ago

I’ve always assumed that it was partially a meme stock. An unusually large fraction of it is retail investors.

Dmitriysz• 3 years ago

Tesla is to cars what Apple was to cellphones.

Shockes me how they're so many dense comments here just because people personally dislike Elon.

Danish pension fund to sell its Tesla shares over union dispute

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