The Economic Cost of Houston’s Heat

https://www.wsj.com/articles/i-dont-want-to-be-here-anymore-the-economic-cost-of-houstons-heat-3cf69016

by impish9208 • 3 years ago

34 47 3 years ago

impish9208• 3 years ago

1970-01-01• 3 years ago

I believe there will be a major city (p. > 1,000,000) lost within the next decade due to a 1-2 punch of extreme heat and extreme weather. The only question remaining is if the uppercut will arrive as fire or flooding. Katrina, Harvey, and Sandy were the warning signs to 'get out now'.

gottorf11• 3 years ago

Let's define your major city as a metro area population (not just city limits, since that's often arbitrary) of over a million. How would you define "lost"? A population decline of over 20%?

nonameiguess• 3 years ago

I'm having trouble imagining what you think could cause that. Katrina itself was about as devastating as flooding can get without being permanent, and we didn't lose New Orleans (nor has it ever even had half a million people in population). A nuclear bomb didn't even cause us to lose Hiroshima.

Seemingly, the only thing that could do this is permanent sea-level rise (not a storm surge) on the level of Katrina or Sandy, but if this was possible, it wouldn't be local and we wouldn't lose one coastal city. We'd lose many.

Have we ever lost an entire city other than Pompeii? Krakatoa killed everyone on Sebesi, but I don't believe had any permanent settlements of its own.

gottorf11• 3 years ago

we didn't lose New Orleans

Not the GP, but on the topic of New Orleans, the metro area lost almost 30% of the population after Katrina, with it having recovered to pre-Katrina levels only in the last few years. So it was severely damaged, and the scars from it are still evident in the city. So this all depends on the GP's definition of "lost".

I often laugh when people ask the question "why do people even live there? Why live somewhere below sea level?" without thinking about the fact that New Orleans is at the mouth of the biggest navigable river system in the world, home to some of the most productive farmland in the world, whose grains all get exported through that city. Until the Mississippi dries up, there will always be a sizable city there, in one shape or another.

Tiktaalik• 3 years ago

It would probably be at least vaguely regional, like people abandoning all of the cities in some extra hot valley due to a lack of water and oppressive heat.

mlinksva• 3 years ago

Many https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Destroyed_cities though admittedly that's a broad list, and includes many that were devasted, but not lost, such has Hiroshima. But still, many.

Hammershaft• 3 years ago

You should make a prediction market on manifold.markets or metaculus & commit to the bet. I think it would be an interesting market.

https://www.metaculus.com/home/

https://manifold.markets/home

myshpa3• 3 years ago

Or sea rise. Or droughts.

nocoiner3• 3 years ago

I think I would take the other side of this bet. I do think that there will be at least one major U.S. urban area that is rendered permanently uninhabitable at some point this century, and the first one will be somewhere in southern Florida, but I don’t have any confidence in timing or specific local geographies.

My prediction is that large-scale abandonment will be due to persistent flooding and inundation that can’t be solved with sea walls/gates or levees, and not a hurricane-induced flood or storm surge. I don’t think that will happen in the next 10 years, though it certainly could.

AndrewKemendo• 3 years ago

Having grown up in Houston it’s really hard to overstate how oppressive it can be in the summer when it’s regularly over 100° and the heat island effect makes it such that any place you go, outside of an air-conditioned space, is absolutely unbearable.

To the extent where when I left home as soon as I could and purposely went to some place that was cold half the year.

gottorf11• 3 years ago

the heat island effect

I live in a Gulf Coast city as well, but it's much smaller than Houston, and I think this really makes a significant difference. Summers are unpleasant here too, but somehow it's not quite as bad as Houston.

HeyLaughingBoy3• 3 years ago

Definitely. There are a lot of dirt/gravel roads around here and in summer, when you turn off a paved asphalt road onto a dirt road there is an immediate air temperature drop.

SxC97• 3 years ago

I live in Houston currently and the heat is absolutely oppressive. Most days going outside feels like exploring Arrakis. It’s dangerous to go outside while the sun is out, lest you spontaneously combust.

It’s steadily been getting worse, year after year, but this summer is the worst I’ve ever experienced.

I’ve already decided this is the last summer I’ll spend here. If I don’t land an in person job here in the next few months, I’m packing up and going to Denver or Seattle.

HeyLaughingBoy3• 3 years ago

I don't know how you guys live there and I grew up in tropical South America!

I had a stopover in Houston coming from Anchorage to MSP. It was 90+ degrees and humid as hell in the airport at 6AM

Never again!

gottorf11• 3 years ago

in the airport

How was it so unpleasant indoors?!

gnulinux2• 3 years ago

This summer in Boston has been the coolest summer I ever experienced in my life (colder than last 4 summers in Boston) including 3 summers I spent in SF (which, as the famous joke goes, are colder than its winters). So, maybe Boston is a good option for our climate change future?

NYC this summer was disgustingly hot though! So maybe this Boston thing is a random statistical anomaly.

azemetre• 3 years ago

Do we live in the same city? The last few weeks has had multiple days over 90 degrees, with a very minor respite when it rains. We haven't even hit August yet (which is typically way hotter than July).

Also FWIW, the entire New England area may be prone to forest fires as bad as the west coast if the region continues to dry out. There is no management of brush in Maine or Vermont or New Hampshire (or even Canada for that matter).

You also can't exactly predict the effects of climate change on regions. I don't think anyone ever thought Washington or Oregon state would experience 24+ hour 100 degree heats during the summer, but they did and will likely experience it again in the future.

gottorf11• 3 years ago

So, maybe Boston is a good option for our climate change future?

Unlikely, given that places nearer to the poles have experienced greater variations. But I don't think Boston is at existential risk or anything like that, with ample water sources and enough elevation aside from a few places.

It will be a fantastic place for HVAC contractors over the next few decades. Not enough homes have AC (and the ones that do are underpowered), and there's a huge imbalance of tradespeople vs. PMC-type people, so the former will be able to command much higher rates.

reaperman2• 3 years ago

I grew up in northern US, then used to live in Saudi Arabia / UAE and now I live in Houston. Honestly Houston just feels "warm" to me now, even on the hottest days. The "Khaleeji" GCC area of the Persian gulf is just so, so, so much worse. Even New Orleans felt just a touch worse to me than Houston, but neither compare to Qatar/UAE/the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia.

I often jog or bicycle 3 miles to work in Houston during the summer and enjoy plenty of daytime outdoor activities in my late 30's.

gottorf11• 3 years ago

Before my first visit to the Emirates, I made the (what seemed to me) reasonable assumption that it was a dry heat, since sand dunes are literally right next to the city. Boy, was I wrong about that one.

pengaru3• 3 years ago

Do Texans still largely live in denial of climate change?

reaperman2• 3 years ago

No. Most Texans believe in "climate change" and consider regional warming effects to be axiomatic. The primary debate is:

1) Is it s/anthropomorphic/anthropogenic? (Caused by humans).

2) Is it really that bad for the Earth? (Does the heat help and/or can the ecosystem adapt).

Most of the debate has moved from "is it happening" to these other questions.

pengaru3• 3 years ago

1) Is it anthropomorphic? (Caused by humans).

nit: anthropic. anthropomorphic would be giving it human traits, like the climate has opposable thumbs and road rage.

gottorf11• 3 years ago

Not a Texan here, but let's steelman the argument a bit. I think a lot of people who say "climate change isn't real" (or similar) actually mean that they disagree on what to do about it. Especially in terms of things like:

- What to do about the developing Global South, whose carbon emissions are only going to rise

- The lack of viable alternatives (with current technology) for many things that currently depend on the high energy density of hydrocarbons

- Strong skepticism against proclaimed emergencies that urgently require more centralized government authority and taxation (which is a playbook as old as history, after all...)

- The opportunity cost of implementing green/renewable energy sources, given that all resources are finite and have alternative uses

The existence of people who literally mean that "climate change isn't real" shouldn't take away from this important discourse.

Fundamentally, and zooming out of Texas, there is a divide between people who see the climate issue (or any other big issue) as a categorical imperative to deal with and the people who see it (or any other) as another factor in an ever-changing ocean of constraints and incentives that humanity faces. It's a fascinating divide.

hombre_fatal• 3 years ago

Having grown up in Houston, it would be worse if Houston had a bunch of things worth being outside for, aside from its few parks, like pedestrian-only zones and market streets and bike lanes.

Instead Houston is eight-lane roads and stroads with no Third Places to visit, so the heat isn't as oppressive since everyone never got out of their SUV to begin with—the city is already oppressive. It just makes the walk to and from your car less comfortable as that's the only reason to be outside.

A little bit of hyperbole, but I blame the heat.

travisporter• 3 years ago

I miss Houston food a lot but do not miss the weather! I used to bike/walk a half mile to work and would sweat through my shirt June-aug

myshpa3• 3 years ago

It's well known how to reduce the heat inside our cities - it's vegetation.

Lots and lots of vegetation, both within and beyond the city boundaries.

(a hint for texans: trees & shrubs, not grass or alfalfa)

hoppery• 3 years ago

Houston is literally a swamp, consider looking at a random street view image of any residential part of the city at some point.

Vegetation doesn’t do anything for humidity, see: Southeast Asia, Subsaharan Africa.

Texas has zero alfalfa production, you’re imagining the desert southwest 1000+ miles away from Houston in an entirely different climate.

myshpa3• 3 years ago

You're right, I haven't really read the article (paywall).

I didn't know that Houston has average 75% humidity (as high as 90% in summer afternoons). That can't be good.

dctoedt• 3 years ago

Forty-year Houstonian here: About 13-14 years ago, one of my wife's nephews called to say that he and his wife were coming to Houston from their home in NYC — in July — to see the nephew's grandfather (my FIL), who lived near us, and show him their infant child. My wife's nephew said, "be sure to think of some things for us to do that Houstonians do in the summer." I responded, "OK, we'll take you to Colorado for a month." (Yes, I know, it's people of a certain income level who do that, and we don't do it.)

nocoiner3• 3 years ago

I was thinking earlier this month that this was the first summer that the heat has really bothered me and generally kept me hiding indoors - normally I love it, and feel very comfortable in it, and usually look like a fool during our mild winters where I’m dressed like prepared for Minnesota in January.

But then I was in Northern California last week, and the heat seemed just as unbearable. So, I guess the upshot is, I’m not really looking forward to the next several decades of summers I’ll hopefully be around for.

jononomo• 3 years ago

You can go further south than Houston and find much nicer weather. Heredia, which is a suburb of San Jose, Costa Rica, is much closer to the equator than Houston, but it is in a much rainier part of the world and it is at an elevation of about 3,000 feet. You can live there all year round without having either heat or air conditioning in your home.

ChumpGPT• 3 years ago

The article briefly talks about energy and HVAC issues. I think Texas needs to really revamp the building code to make sure dwellings are built to a higher standard. Insulation requirements (spray foam), solar shielding, better windows, reflective roofs, solar power incentives, etc. If you notice there is never an effort to become more efficient, they pick the easy way out and just build out more power. In Texas most HVAC units are placed in the hottest part of the house, the Attic. These systems last 5-10 years because of the insane temperatures they have to operate in. They need to be installed inside the home in a closet or environmentally controlled room, that alone would make them more efficient and last longer.

The Economic Cost of Houston’s Heat

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