Wagner’s Prigozhin Warns He’s Ready to Withdraw from Bakhmut

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-30/wagner-s-prigozhin-warns-he-s-ready-to-withdraw-from-bakhmut

by DocFeind • 3 years ago

20 31 3 years ago

ummonk2• 3 years ago

He did a similar complaint a few months back too. Seems to have a knack for getting around red tape / corruption by going public.

tonyedgecombe• 3 years ago

He should be careful, he might find himself hurtling towards the pavement soon.

blinding-streak• 3 years ago

https://archive.ph/nnEIn

throwaway4good• 3 years ago

I thought the Russians controlled most of Bakhmut now?

I don’t understands it’s value though. The city is completely destroyed as far as I can see from all the videos that are coming out from there.

nradov4• 3 years ago

At this point the value is mostly just symbolic. Russians control most of Bakhmut now but Ukrainians still hold a small piece. At the beginning of the war it had some value as a logistics hub but everything of value was destroyed months ago.

NicoJuicy3• 3 years ago

The value of Bakhmut is that it is/was defensible and the Russian losses topped Ukraine losses.

There is talk about a 9-1 ratio, but i think a 5-1 ratio to be more real.

Ukraine seems quick to retreat when those ratios are not favorable.

Ofc, this is guessing. There could be more to it, eg. Russians could advance faster if Bakhmut is conquered.

Additionally, it's more useful to fend off the invaders in an already destroyed city instead of letting them advance to another ( probably inhabited and more intact) city.

frereubu4• 3 years ago

The Ukrainians are inflicting heavy losses on the Russian side (including Wagner mercenaries) without taking losses that are nearly as heavy. The Russian side are just throwing lots of soldiers and machinery into badly-placed offenses so they’re playing into the Ukrainians’ hands as the Ukrainians continue to degrade their army. The crucial difference is that the Ukrainians, alongside being much more motivated, are being much, much smarter in terms of logistics.

If you’re interested in this kind of thing I highly recommend following Phillips O’Brien on Twitter, who’s a professor of strategic studies at St Andrews university and has been calling things very well since the beginning of the war: https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien

deepthunder2• 3 years ago

Phillips O'Brien? He claims on Twitter Russia is the most likely candidate for blowing up the Nordstream pipeline. He's just a "Security services stenographer".

arvigeus• 3 years ago

The Ukrainians are inflicting heavy losses on the Russian side (including Wagner mercenaries) without taking losses that are nearly as heavy.

Have in mind that

1) These numbers are unreliable (although most likely in Ukrainian’s favour) 2) Numbers are not equal: 10 poorly trained Russian soldiers are not comparable to 1 elite Ukrainian sniper

tivert• 3 years ago

The Ukrainians are inflicting heavy losses on the Russian side (including Wagner mercenaries) without taking losses that are nearly as heavy.

IIRC, the Ukrainian losses are still pretty heavy. Most other countries have advised them to stop squandering resources trying to hold it, because they think that could undermine their spring offensive.

ummonk2• 3 years ago

For the Ukrainians, it's a place to stall and bleed out Russian offensive capability while the Ukrainians their western-trained forces and equipment for the offensive they're planning.

For the Russians, it's a place to achieve concentration of force and use artillery to attrit large numbers of Ukrainian troops, as well as a chance to break Ukrainian defensive lines and capture a major logistical hub - opening the way to advance on Slovyansk-Kramatorsk.

NicoJuicy3• 3 years ago

I think he just wants to focus back on Africa since he's deemed a criminal organization since end of January.

The Ukraine war won't last, there's a counter offensive supposedly in the making and he doesn't want to lose face too much.

If the counter offensive is successful, he could claim it was because he wasn't there. And it wouldn't have happened if he had received the resources he wanted.

He is just waiting to retreat before the counter offensive actually starts.

What seems to be significant is the short timeline ( days not weeks). He knows that won't be possible + in a video of him, he mentioned he didn't send the letter "yet", which is counter intuitive according the claimed urgency.

NicoJuicy3• 3 years ago

It's still an unwritten story.

There seems to be suggestions that Wagner received ammo: https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1652747002013163529?t=...

If that's true, he's indeed just looking for an excuse to leave.

ufo• 3 years ago

I wouldn't take that headline at face value. Prigozhin periodically releases these statements complaining about lack of ammunition, resources, etc. It's a way to jockey for influence and increase political capital. Next week he'll be back to gloating about Wagner group accomplishments and the cycle will continue.

0zemp2c• 3 years ago

this is starting to look like a (practically) forever war

both sides seem committed to impossible goals - Russia wants to occupy everything up to the Polish border, Zelensky wants Russia completely pushed back even out of Crimea

both goals seem unrealistic, and both leaders will probably be replaced by new leadership with an even more zealous commitment to the conflict

on some level I feel like the US administration is fine with this...on the most cynical level, a smashed Europe helps preserve US status militarily and economically

gerikson2• 3 years ago

Ukraine liberating Crimea, while a stretch goal, is more likely than Russia defeating Ukraine.

webmaven• 3 years ago

Russia conquering Ukraine is now highly unlikely, but defeating Ukraine (essentially by obliterating it) remains very much within Russia's capabilities, unfortunately.

Whether Putin could see such a Pyrrhic victory as his least-bad option under some set of circumstances — and settle for it — is unknown, but the signs aren't particularly good.

hdjjhhvvhga• 3 years ago

both goals seem unrealistic

Why do you think pushing Russia back from Crimea is unrealistic? It's very difficult, it might take years and we can discuss whether it makes sense at all, but I wouldn't call it unrealistic.

deepthunder2• 3 years ago

The one thing that is certain is that Ukraine will lie in ruins.

paradox242• 3 years ago

I am not understanding how this is any different than similar complaints from the last few months. Also, any public utterances by someone as high-up as Prigozhin is not based on logistical, but rather political considerations. To really understand what it means would require much more insight than I have into the all of the players and the current power dynamics between them.

BenoitP• 3 years ago

To be taken with a grain of salt: this guy has one of the most active troll farm. He knows what he's doing.

Wagner’s Prigozhin Warns He’s Ready to Withdraw from Bakhmut

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