I’m Going Long Right Now

http://blogmaverick.com/2008/10/08/im-going-long-right-now/

by jasonlbaptiste • 18 years ago

25 21 18 years ago

steveplace2• 18 years ago

We've probably hit an intermediate term capitulative low here.

beaudeal• 18 years ago

6 months ago when I put 90% of my savings into CDs, people around me told me I was playing it too safe...let me tell you, right now I am one happy person.

newaccountname• 18 years ago

You should have put it all into the highest yielding (and thus riskiest) money market accounts. The government ended up giving them the same coverage as your CDs (not that you could have known that would happen...).

kingkongrevenge3• 18 years ago

His advice that the average person should not speculate in equities is sound, but he kind of ignores the fact that if you're 100% CDs you're a currency speculator. You're betting on the dollar and the US banking system. There is no true safe haven.

The more history I experience the more sense Harry Browne's old "Permanent Portfolio" makes. He said (if I recall correctly): A third equity indexes, a third bonds (weighted sovereign), a third gold, and make sure a third of the whole mix is not only internationally diversified but actually outside the control of your government. Rebalance once a year.

eru• 18 years ago

How about substitution of real estate for gold? Real estate might not be en vogue right now - but at least you can grow food on a farm.

kingkongrevenge3• 18 years ago

Owning real estate is more like taking on a part time job than a passive investment.

lackbeard2• 18 years ago

One problem with real estate is that it's not very liquid. And it's hard to get ample diversification unless you're super rich.

kqr2• 18 years ago

Not only that, but if you only invest in CDs, your real rate of return (interest - inflation) isn't going to be impressive and may actually be negative since the government tends to soft peddle the actual inflation numbers.

lackbeard2• 18 years ago

In Fail-Safe Investing, Harry Browne's suggestion is 25% each in: equity index funds, long term bonds, cash (in a treasury money market fund,) and gold.

Also, he suggests everything be U.S. stuff. U.S. stocks, treasury bonds, and treasury-backed money market fund. Obviously this doesn't apply to gold.

He does also suggest that some of your assets be held outside the control of your government. His advice for how to accomplish this is to have most of your gold held in a bank in Switzerland or Austria.

netcan3• 18 years ago

Always surprised to see gold on this list. Isn't it the ultimate baseball card? Held mostly for trading and influenced by both unpredictable demand (fashion) and unpredictable supply (what if some huge mine is discovered?).

JoelSutherland• 18 years ago

This seems much less organized than a typical Cuban post.

Most disappointingly, he didn't give any supporting thoughts on his most interesting opinion:

"All that said. The stock market can humble me or anyone in a nano second. It could go a lot lower. I DO NOT SEE IT GOING DRAMATICALLY HIGHER. NO CHANCE IT GETS BACK TO 11k anytime soon."

mynameishere• 18 years ago

Why ? Because there are some good companies, in good businesses where I think the dividend is safe, and 6pct , plust hopefully future dividend increases is a good thing.

I hope he wasn't that drunk when he put his money down.

tocomment• 18 years ago

He recommends CDs but I've always wondered about bonds. Here are the questions I have:

Are there reasonably safe bonds that pay say 6-9%?

What's the probability of a grade B bond defaulting in a given year?

Where does one buy bonds, just through an Etrade account? What do you do if you don't get paid the interest?

ojbyrne• 18 years ago

Two days ago Jim Cramer said "sell everything." I can think of no better buy signal.

LPTS• 18 years ago

I remember when Jim Cramer was saying "Bear Stearns is fine. These people who say Bear Stearns is failing are crazy." and then Bear Stearns crashed 10 minutes later.

I wish I could fuck up as bad as Jim Cramer does all the time and still have people take me seriously.

steveplace2• 18 years ago

You have to remember he's in the entertainment industry, and not the finance industry.

Anyone who trades based off his ideas can go ahead and write me a check.

I’m Going Long Right Now

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