Robert Shiller predicted the 2008 housing bubble. Here’s his 2022 call

https://fortune.com/2022/08/09/housing-bubble-2022-call-robert-shiller-housing-market/

by sottol • 4 years ago

24 6 4 years ago

fortune.com

Flatcircle• 4 years ago

A broken clock is right twice a day.

There probably will be a housing dip but this guy basically predicts it every year

refurb• 4 years ago

Well, since the early 1990's housing has be vastly overvalued.

aeternum• 4 years ago

Looks like he started predicting a dip in 2019. In 2018, he was saying he doesn't expect a large downturn: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/26/robert-shiller-i-dont-expect...

Covid and the temporary interest rate drop can pretty strongly explain why he was off by 2-3 years.

atwood22• 4 years ago

In 2019, the Fed decided to raise the benchmark rate, but then reversed course after a few months. I wonder if his prediction in 2019 was before or after the Fed started lowering rates again. Rates were also rising in 2004 when he made his prediction back then, too. There is probably more to his analysis, but he seems to predict housing prices will fall as interest rates go up. Most people would predict that.

badrabbit• 4 years ago

The prices are high but the demand is high as well a crash in prices for whatever reason might be stabilized by a rush in demand before prices go back up again. A ton of millenial families don't own a house because of this.

Even a broken clock is right twice a day. Wouldn't put too much weight on past prediction.

sottol• 4 years ago

If the dip is really around 10% and afair home prices have risen 42% since 2019, then that's still a net 30% increase in just a few years.

Robert Shiller predicted the 2008 housing bubble. Here’s his 2022 call

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