Bank of England warns of 'apocalyptic' global food shortage

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/05/16/bank-england-warns-apocalyptic-global-food-shortage/

by IdEntities • 4 years ago

40 26 4 years ago

telegraph.co.uk

People all across the world are going to starve this winter.

In the rich world, probably we mostly will have plenty of food -- just not the bountiful variety that was the abundance our advanced societies created back in the days when we valued abundance. We'll pay way more for it, and those who can't afford to pay more will end up having to make do with what they can get -- but citizens of the rich world won't starve.

Elsewhere around the world, though, it will be a tragically different story. In many places, basic foodstuffs are becoming so rare and expensive that they're beyond the means of everyday people (for example, in Nairobi, where black humor memes about measuring cooking oil with a syringe have become popular: https://www.npr.org/2022/04/28/1095396921/the-rising-tides-o...).

listless• 4 years ago

This is terrifying. Why am I not seeing coverage of this elsewhere? US media is full of stories about inflation cooling. If this is true, this should be the biggest story everywhere.

codefreeordie4• 4 years ago

The world was already producing less food this year even before the Ukraine/Russia war, which takes a ton of wheat-producing land out of service and has also greatly reduced the availability of chemical fertilizer, which will greatly reduce yields everywhere (including in the U.S., where there is a massive fertilizer shortage going on right now).

There's also a massive energy shortage, partially due to the Ukraine/Russia war (again, it was going to be a little bit bad and then the war made it tragic), which makes every part of the food supply chain tighter as well.

jimmygrapes• 4 years ago

For context take a look at the more tech oriented threads where people making 6 digits USD are whining about having to go to the office or similar. Then compare to the threads about how bad "things" are. Then compare to the threads about how billionaires need to do their part. Seek the disconnects. Then recognize that it has always been this way.

Kon-Peki2• 4 years ago

This is from less than a week ago [1]

“An awful lot of people in Africa are going to starve to death because they [Ukraine] are the sole, sole supplier,” Biden said, switching between prepared and off-the-cuff remarks inside the stiflingly hot warehouse. “Putin has warships bouncing around, preventing access to the Ukrainian ports to get this grain out, to get this wheat out.”
Biden touted White House efforts that he says will help OC Farm — a sixth-generation family farm that produces soybeans, corn and wheat — and others across the nation boost production, including by offering expanding insurance to farmers encouraging them to produce two crops in the upcoming season.

If you can, grow a garden this year (and the next, and the next).

[1] https://chicago.suntimes.com/2022/5/11/23067489/president-bi...

xrd2• 4 years ago

Because it is hyperbole.

Will this affect US wheat prices?

Yes, because they are priced on the global market.

Will it mean citizens of the US will not have enough wheat to eat?

No, generally it won't, because the US doesn't import wheat at all.

https://www.wusa9.com/article/news/verify/the-russian-invasi...

Pay attention to the articles, many of them confuse global supply with exports, as if all countries need to import everything they consume. That's not true. These fluctuations will affect people and prices but the reporting is often hyperbolic and incorrect.

MandieD• 4 years ago

We still have vegetable oil shortages in German supermarkets, though we’ve at least gotten to the point where there’s always plenty of 750ml bottles of organic canola oil for 5-7 EUR, but store brand sunflower or canola oil for 3 EUR/liter gets cleared out pretty quickly, despite purchase limits.

Before Covid, store brand oil was about 1 EUR/liter.

Ekaros• 4 years ago

1€ litre... Using that would be cheaper than diesel here... Sometimes considered this specially if one where to have car which accepts it relatively well...

icegreentea2• 4 years ago

Perhaps a meaningless distinction (there will be a global food shortage, and it's going to very hard in the developing world), but the BoE didn't warn of 'apocalyptic' global food shortages. The BoE warned of global food shortages, and apologized for sounding apocalyptic.

If you want numbers, you can maybe take a look at the UN Food Program's projections for 2022 (https://docs.wfp.org/api/documents/WFP-0000138913/download/)

~180 million people projected to be in crisis or worse food security category in 2022. I believe that projection includes the effects of the Ukrainian conflict. That number is also... not very different from the 2020 or 2021 numbers =(

adammichaelc• 4 years ago

Sounds like the UN has a faulty system to analyze this particular threat.

It’s novel. Maybe that’s why.

Inflation + Ukraine/Russian exports offline + Diesel too expensive + Chemical fertilizers unavailable + Weather changes that make planting impossible + Supply chain malfunctioning = REALLY low food production

And global food shortages.

ilaksh• 4 years ago

All of this points towards dramatically increased risk of global war. That is a bigger concern. People get desperate enough and they lose their civility en masse. And we are animals at heart. If our animal needs aren't met, our base survival behavior can come out.

I really believe that is a big part of what's going on in Ukraine. The economic squeeze on Russia, although intended as an alternative to "real" violence, put them in a more desperate situation and since Putin decided to not give in, the financial problems and fallout from that helped him justify (in his mind) the desperate act of war.

But overall all of this is related to global management and logistical failure. Not saying that it would have been easy to avoid since we had the pandemic, but it is an overall organizational failure.

Geopolitics is a significant part of the management that has failed. Part of that is just how hard it is to get billions of people who speak different languages and are thousands of miles apart to share similar worldviews. Or even just a relatively small group of powerful leaders.

We are essentially large troupes of monkeys in hierarchies. At the top are just monkeys.

Economists are just a type of modern day priest. They are not scientists. Not even monkey scientists. The Bankers can't save anyone. They are a big part of the problem.

labrador• 4 years ago

Kira Rudik says 80% of the Ukrainian sowing plan is completed. I'm not sure how accurate her information is, but she seems to be in the know (Member of Ukrainian Parliament, Leader of Political party Golos, former CEO of Ring Ukraine)

https://twitter.com/kiraincongress/status/152547167524406067...

Borrible• 4 years ago

Who would have thought.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30568513#30569284

https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/futures/C00/advanced-...

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Bank of England warns of 'apocalyptic' global food shortage

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