Who wins in Ukraine?

https://beachwood23.com/2022/03/28/thoughts-russia-ukraine.html

by beachwood23 • 4 years ago

12 29 4 years ago

beachwood23.com

rmbyrro3• 4 years ago

Wow, amazing how the guy interviewed in the video was 100% accurate in his analysis and predictions.

sidibe• 4 years ago

He really did say everything exactly right in retrospect. Maybe Russia is too predictable.

In case you missed this one, another great prediction from Nevzorov in 2021: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OutvYSl_TLc

beachwood235• 4 years ago

That is an incredible link. Thanks for sharing.

trasz• 4 years ago

But too much of Russian propaganda for my taste.

rmbyrro3• 4 years ago

Yea, some of the points have merit, but it's a bit biased. The conclusion that Europe will move away from the US is dubious. I think most likely it will bring them all closer together. We're seeing even peoples in Finland and Sweden now in favor of joining NATO.. .

beachwood235• 4 years ago

most likely it will bring them all closer together.

You are right, in that this will most likely be the short-term action. NATO / EU will be more tightly bound to the US out of necessity. But necessity does not engender gratitude and goodwill - usually it precipitates resentment and struggle. That is why in the long term, I predict poor relations between NATO / EU.

Thanks for reading and sharing your thoughts.

beachwood235• 4 years ago

Thanks for reading. Would love to hear specifics on which facts were false / one-sided propaganda.

My conclusions may or may not end up being true, but hopefully we share the same premises of the conflict.

swagasaurus-rex4• 4 years ago

The part where you blame the west for Putin’s power crazed dream of enslaving neighboring countries

Mikeb85• 4 years ago

The article starts with the revolution/coup in 2014 but completely ignores the nearly 8 years in between. Yes western nations encouraged/sponsored Maidan, yes Poroshenko was a stooge.

But something else happened. Poroshenko ended up being less of a stooge as time went on and Zelenskiy is anything but. When Zelenskiy was elected some thought he was too pro-Russia, as a Jew he certainly didn't identify with groups like Azov or Right Sector, his first language is Russian, etc... A lot of commentators and even Putin seem to focus on 2014 and not more recent happenings in Ukraine.

Who wins? No one. Ukrainians are suffering yet another genocide because Russia is being spiteful that they can't conquer Ukraine (due to massive corruption killing their military capabilities). Of course it's not the first time in history (basically all Ukrainian history is powers invading back and forth) so hopefully a stronger Ukraine comes out of this.

omega32• 4 years ago

We pushed Russia to the breaking point, and now we get to see what plays out.

I wish this argument would just die - it's all on Russia. No one has forced them to have imaginary "safety guarantees" or influence spheres. What people in the west doesn't seem to understand is that nothing has changed in terms of Russian politics since the WW2 - it's the continuation of the same politics of threats of aggression and playing the imaginary victim card and imperialistic politics.

coldtea• 4 years ago

No one has forced them to have imaginary "safety guarantees" or influence spheres.

In which case, only the US gets to have them, as per the Monroe Doctrine, and pursue them anyway they like (including interventions, occupation, and war) all around the world? Or do exactly the same condemnations hold for that case too (after all, much more costlier in deaths and far more wide-reaching in countries and populations affected).

swagasaurus-rex4• 4 years ago

Yes invading countries is bad

pydry2• 4 years ago

They've got a 2000 km border of exposed flat plains that has been routinely invaded in the past. Theyve not got the benefit of a mountain range or an ocean buffering them in the west.

What people (non-elites) dont understand in the west is that geography dictates policy.

Even in spite of that the war probably wouldnt have happened had Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya not placed NATO firmly in the offensive alliance category while it pursued Russian encirclement. Putin started out friendly.

omega32• 4 years ago

Do you really believe that Ukraine, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Georgia are planning to invade Russia - is this a credible threat?

pasabagi• 4 years ago

There are some issues with this article. First, the account of the ukranian revolution is neither very accurate nor balanced: generally speaking, shadowy US interference in far-away states ('color revolutions', etc) is more complicated, and a far more marginal factor than people like Putin would have you believe.

It also continues to follow the Russian line in the section where it discusses the build-up to the conflict. I think this idea of 'NATO expansion pushing into the Russian sphere' is also wrongheaded: countries get a sphere of influence when they are powerful enough to exert control over their neighbors by simple size disparity, primarily economic, but also military, to such an extent that their neighbors are simply always by default in a weaker position when they negotiate. The USSR had the economic, cultural, and military power to maintain this. The Russians don't. That Putin does not realize this is his failing, not NATO's.

The economic section is also profoundly mistaken. You talk about recessions and inflation as if the Russian economy and the US economy are comparable. They are not: the Russian economy is marginally larger than that of Spain. It is smaller than California or Texas. Any economic confrontation between the West and Russia is modulated by the fact the Russian economy is simply so much smaller: the West is basically a collection of the world's largest economic blocs, minus China and India. An economic fight between the EU and Russia would be a ridiculous mismatch. An economic fight between Russia and the entire West is so unbalanced that it may as well be a trade war between Kentucky and the rest of the US: there is simply no way that Russia can inflict a proportionate amount of economic damage to the west, and the only limit to how much damage the west can inflict on Russia is how willing they are to suffer even a tiny bit in return.

federoccco• 4 years ago

As a person who was there in Ukraine in 2004, and in 2013-14, as a somewhat neutral observer of Orange Revolution and Euromaidan, the first paragraph already throws you an Oliver Stone -level propaganda jab. Everyone in Ukraine was well aware what political party was supported by the West or by Russia. To say that pro-western and anti-Russia attitude in Ukraine was fabricated by the West is a bit of a stretch, to say the least.

This article plays the favorite game of Russian apologists — engage in bad faith with any pro-Ukrainian argument, and in good faith with any Russian one.

It fails to account for Russian troops in Crimea (when discussing 2014 referendum), it fails to account for Russian influence in Ukrainian politics (billions of funding) and of course there is no agency of Ukrainian people, only NATO and Russia.

And of course “US invited an invasion [of Ukraine]”, sure, lets find a more apologetic way of saying “Putin invaded Ukraine”.

beachwood235• 4 years ago

Thanks for reading and for sharing your experience. Much appreciated.

I'm not trying to spread propaganda. I'm doing my best to make sense of the different narratives being told by different parties. It's all we can do in these crazy times.

You have many good points. This article was not comprehensive and could have dug deeper into many reasons. I'll respond to one bit:

To say that pro-western and anti-Russia attitude in Ukraine was fabricated by the West is a bit of a stretch, to say the least.

I never used the word 'fabricated', and I don't think I said anything that robust. I said "funded", which is different. Ukraine is a large country, and there are plenty of different political opinions and movements to pick from when supplying funding.

type02• 4 years ago

Who wins in Ukraine?

China, since they will be buying Russian resources for cheap

good question btw, but terrible and misguided article

mirntyfirty• 4 years ago

I think that one disadvantage though is that a key ally of theirs loses what’s left of their economic and military strength.

type02• 4 years ago

They are not allies though, they cooperated against US and that's it. In Central Asia for example Russia is an opponent when it comes to influence.

Who wins in Ukraine?

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