Covid-19 Cases and Deaths by Vaccination Status

https://www.dshs.texas.gov/immunize/covid19/data/vaccination-status/

by tzs • 5 years ago

56 72 5 years ago

dshs.texas.gov

cyounkins• 5 years ago

CDC recently started publishing data from multiple (not all) states: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#rates-by-vaccine-s...

ajross5• 5 years ago

tl;dr: Vaccination status correlates with a 13x reduction of infection risk and a 20x reduction of death risk.

Now, to be clear that's a confounded number. The vaccinated are also likely to be taking other mitigation strategies seriously. So the vaccine itself will be somewhat less effective than this.

Nonetheless, this is pretty damning for the horse paste set. In decades to come we'll wonder and think and study how this all went so horrifically wrong.

walterbell6• 5 years ago

In decades to come we'll wonder and think and study how this all went so horrifically wrong.

Hopefully we will investigate why almost all (rare) deaths after vaccination can be attributed to only 5% of lot numbers, a statistical anomaly with no easy explanation since this power-law curve appears in the data for both mRNA (Pfizer, Moderna) and non-mRNA (J&J) shots. Could the reason be variance in manufacturing or distribution?

ohazi• 5 years ago

Source?

artificialLimbs• 5 years ago

Politicians, media, and pharma sure didn’t do themselves a whole lot of favors in this whole debacle.

https://rumble.com/vokrf7-sen.-johnson-expert-panel-on-feder...

FabHK3• 5 years ago

I don't understand. If there are very few cases of deaths, say 50, then they'll affect at most 50 lot numbers, so a small percentage of them, presumably. What is the anomaly? (And btw the birthday paradox shows that the probability that one of the lots has more than one death is not negligible either.) So, a careful analysis is needed.

Note also that people that input spurious VAERS entries might invent most of the entry, but not know the format of a lot number, and thus copy one from some other entry.

jraby3• 5 years ago

Incredible how effective it is for people in their 40s. 55x is astounding.

postingawayonhn• 5 years ago

The vaccinated are also likely to be taking other mitigation strategies seriously.

It could also be true that vaccinated people are willing to take greater risks now that they knowingly have a level of protection.

nielsbot• 5 years ago

Anecdote: I personally feel more comfortable eating at restaurants after being vaccinated. A little, but more.

ajross5• 5 years ago

That's mixing up data sets. The "unvaccinated" of today (dominated by those who have refused the vaccine) aren't the same population of last April (people without access to a vaccine they want), to which you belonged.

The latter were wearing their masks and being cautious. The former clearly aren't. While they're both "unvaccinated" they don't have the same behavior here.

gurleen_s• 5 years ago

The vaccinated are also likely to be taking other mitigation strategies seriously.

It may not be the case in Texas, but I’d imagine the vaccinated are at equal or even greater risk than the unvaccinated because they are able to do more (attending events, school, etc).

dehrmann• 5 years ago

Now, to be clear that's a confounded number.

It's also confounded by urban vs rural. All else being equal, I'd expect rural people are less likely to get it because they interact with fewer people. So...confounded, very. Which direction? No clue.

el_benhameen• 5 years ago

Fair to assume those confounding factors. I’m trying to think of things that might confound in the opposite direction. I believe vaccinated people skew older and therefore higher risk of reduce vaccine efficacy, infection, and severe illness. Anything else?

nradov• 5 years ago

This data wasn't a random sample so we can't use it to quantify the difference in risk of infection.

FabHK3• 5 years ago

We can't assume that there are no biases, but we can certainly use it to quantify the difference. ETA: And, if someone now wants to argue that the vaccine does not work, they will have to come up with a plausible 20x confounder. Which in itself would be quite an achievement.

sennight2• 5 years ago

In decades to come we'll wonder and think and study how this all went so horrifically wrong.

lol, it might take decades to massage public consciousness for a desired outcome in the state's interest, but it certainly doesn't take that long to get a handle on the actual issues: institutions used up all their credibility on transparently obvious misinformation. It started with the WHO, an organization already hurting in that regard (Mugabe the goodwill ambassador... hard to top that kind of contempt), misrepresenting their Wuhan fact finding efforts. Then you had US politicians calling early efforts xenophobic and encouraging people to gather in chinatown to stick it to the racists, followed by the CDC saying masks weren't effective, before they were, and then weren't - and then double-masking. All while the stats were clearly going screwy, people suddenly stopped dying of anything but covid - the long running influenza tracking efforts were halted (or announced, but then reversed?)... oh, and obviously George Floyd tested positive. Mentions of "herd immunity" were scrubbed from the CDC's site, and the word "vaccine" redefined. So that is what went wrong: you can't expect appeals to authority to work when the authorities have seemingly gone out of their way to present themselves as liars who are trying to manipulate you by any means available to them.

ajmurmann• 5 years ago

You call out a lot of unfortunate communication missteps. What are you referring to though with redefining the word vaccine?

throwawaysea• 5 years ago

Nonetheless, this is pretty damning for the horse paste set.

Look I agree that vaccines confer a reduction in risk, but you really shouldn't be referring to ivermectin as “horse paste”. That is clearly pejorative misinformation, and is equivalent to calling all antibiotics “cow pills” just because there happen to be antibiotics administered to livestock.

ajross5• 5 years ago

No, sorry. People were literally taking horse paste formulations of a drug that did not work. That's not perjorative, it's descriptive. It sounds perjorative simply because it's outrageously stupid. But it's correct.

Being embarrassed when someone calls you an idiot isn't being persecuted if you're actually being an idiot. If you don't want me to laugh at you for taking horse paste then don't take it.

longbrass• 5 years ago

The pejorative appears to be directed at the “set” of individuals who advise, or use, the drug in its equine formulation as opposed to the drug itself. This off label use has been documented https://www.avma.org/javma-news/2021-10-01/people-ingesting-... and it’s the individuals that deserve derision as opposed to the inanimate pharma compounds.

throwaway829• 5 years ago

CNN/MSNBC have misinformed you about Ivermectin. Do you think the inventors would get a Nobel Prize if it was just for horses? Advil is also used for horses but we don't misinform people and call it pain killer for horses.

The new Pfizer drug, with 89% efficacy, is a protease inhibitor targeting 3CLPro. Ivermectin seems to also work as a protease inhibitor targeting 3CLPro. Repurposing a drug that we know is safe means it came be deployed very rapidly. New and unknown drugs can take years before all side effects are known.

If anyone is interested in hearing an informed opinion on Ivermectin check out Dr. John Campbell: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ufy2AweXRkc

dboreham• 5 years ago

Unfortunately John Campbell has gone to the dark side a few months ago and no longer presents unbiased science.

ajross5• 5 years ago

CNN/MSNBC have misinformed you about Ivermectin.

Are you saying people were not taking veterinary formulations of this drug (for which there is zero evidence of efficacy) without a prescription or any kind of supervision beyond what they read on Facebook? Because that's the takeaway I got.

Again, at some point we're all going to have a big reckoning as to why this kind of discourse you're engaging in became so prevalent.

It's not like we don't have an idea how to manage or understand infectious diseases. The linked article is about an extraordinarily effective control mechanism. Yet... horse paste. (And people on HN trying to defend horse paste as anything other than sheer idiocy by citing research they don't understand and that isn't even correct.)

8note2• 5 years ago

It's known to be safe when taken once or twice a year, not daily. The dosage matters, both for safety and effectiveness.

Ivermectin taken more frequently than approved for has side effects including your intestinal lining falling off and looking like worms in your poo.

dang2• 5 years ago

You set off a hellish flamewar with that swipe, and then you perpetuated it worse (by far) than any other commenter in this thread). That's egregiously against the site guidelines. You unfortunately have a long history of doing this and we've had to ask you multiple times, going back years, to stop. Seriously not cool.

We ban accounts that do this. If you don't want to be banned, please don't do anything like this again—not just your root comment here, but your many other aggressive comments in this thread. In fact it seems like every single one of the 10 comments you posted to this thread has badly broken the site guidelines. That sort of spree is beyond bannable offense. I don't want to ban you, so please restrain yourself from doing this in the future.

No matter how right you are or feel you are, no matter how wrong other people are or you feel they are, it is not ok to destroy the ecosystem like this. I'm sure you wouldn't set fires in a dry forest or in a public building, so please don't set them here. And please don't pour fuel or throw additional flammables in there either.

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

p.s. Lest anyone misunderstand this as somehow cryptically taking the other side of the argument—I'm not. I'm simply concerned with preventing users from burning this place down. It doesn't matter what color the flames are.

ajross5• 5 years ago

You've editted that comment a number of times trying to explain why you flagged my top comment. Maybe... the initial comment wasn't actually all that bad? "Horse paste" really isn't a "swipe". It is a term used in exasperation for sure, but it is indeed a correct term for the drug preparation and how it was used by the community eating it.

I'll take the hit on the responses, though. It's very hard to leave things like that alone, but I'll try.

walterbell6• 5 years ago

From the CDC website, https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/fully-vac...

people are considered fully vaccinated: 2 weeks after their second dose in a 2-dose series, such as the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines, or 2 weeks after a single-dose vaccine, such as Johnson & Johnson’s Janssen vaccine

Until 14 days after the final dose, in addition to the risk of Covid infection or injury, there is risk of non-Covid infection or injury, due to the immune system working overtime to learn from the vaccine. During that period, it is prudent to avoid physical exertion or exposure to people in crowded environments. Some countries already issue such warnings to every person who receives a shot/booster.

muzika• 5 years ago

If a person dies within 14 days after taking the vaccine (eg due to side effects), it is counted as an “unvaccinated covid-related death”?

walterbell6• 5 years ago

In the US, that was the case for most of 2021. Around Q3 2021, some reports started including numbers for "partly vaccinated".

If there isn't a separate line item for cases prior to 14-days-after-final-shot, then those are usually rolled into "not vaccinated" or "unvaccinated".

Some countries have always had separate reporting for partly-vaccinated.

detaro• 5 years ago

If it is assumed to be related to a covid infection.

PierceJoy• 5 years ago

Can you clarify why people should avoid physical exertion in the 14 day window?

Also, is there currently any evidence that your immune system is generally less effective during that time?

walterbell6• 5 years ago

Can you clarify why people should avoid physical exertion in the 14 day window?

Some countries issued a warning about myocarditis. This was later narrowed to young people. Some countries later banned Moderna entirely for young people. There was also a concern about transient blood clots or micro-clots (also possible with Covid itself), which can impact blood circulation.

is there currently any evidence that your immune system is generally less effective during that time?

In addition to anecdotal reports from doctors, here are 2 short papers.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8379763/pdf/mai...

Our case report describes two adults developing herpes zoster after vaccination with tozinameran (the Pfizer- BioNTech COVID-19 mRNA vaccine). A possible cause for this reaction is a transient lymphocytopenia that occurs after the vaccination — similar to that in COVID-19 disease

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/labs/pmc/articles/PMC8546144/pd...

we report, besides generation of neutralizing antibodies, consistent alterations in hemoglobin A1c, serum sodium and potassium levels, coagulation profiles, and renal functions in healthy volunteers after vaccination with an inactivated SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. Similar changes had also been reported in COVID-19 patients, suggesting that vaccination mimicked an infection

As with all adverse events which may or may not be related to vaccines, we need more funding to investigate reports, identify common factors in those who were affected, then construct studies, testing and surveillance to differentiate cause from coincidence.

herdcall• 5 years ago

I'm not sure the infection rates are reliable: vaccinated folks are much more likely to be asymptomatic or experience mild symptoms, so are much less likely to be tested to confirm infection vs. unvaccinated ones.

zz865• 5 years ago

Also higher risk people are more likely to be vaccinated.

dntrkv• 5 years ago

But vaccinated people are more likely to take a COVID test.

twofornone• 5 years ago

Why would they take a covid test if they believe they are immune?

rvnx• 5 years ago

Don't have non-vaccinated people less risk of dying as a baseline ? (because if they are against vaccine, probably they statistically have less comorbidities, otherwise they'd take the vaccine). If this is the case, then it would mean the vaccine is even more effective than it seems.

TheDong• 5 years ago

There's at least a baseline of tests from activities which require a negative test report. For example, traveling to canada requires a negative covid test before crossing the border, so I'd expect vaccinated people to get tests at at least that baseline.

I do agree this data would be more compelling and reliable if we did covid tests of a random sample of the population and compiled infection data from that, entirely removing any self-selection bias.

FabHK3• 5 years ago

Death rates should be pretty reliable, though.

thenewnormal2• 5 years ago

It's not much use if the data isn't broken down by age, as that is an enormous risk factor with Covid.

Here's some better data, from the UK:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/...

The relevant data is on Table 4, page 15. Eg: For the 30-39 age group, Covid death rate amongst the unvaccinated was 0.7 per 100,000, and it was 0.1 per 100,000 for the double vaccinated. For the over 80 age group, it was 117 per 100,000 for the unvaccinated, and 47 per 100,000 for the vaccinated.

If anything, it's more effective for young people...

romellem• 5 years ago

The site links to the full PDF report, which has the data by age groups:

* https://www.dshs.texas.gov/immunize/covid19/data/Cases-and-D...

thenewnormal2• 5 years ago

Interesting. Apparently Texas has some incredibly unhealthy people, as the unvaccinated death rate there is significantly higher than the unvaccinated death rate in the UK.

paul7986• 5 years ago

Wonder how that compares to the flu and the flu shot?

peteradio• 5 years ago

Take it a step further and also break it down by comorbidity(s).

joe-collins• 5 years ago

Are those charts... hand-drawn? Or just victims of really weird smoothing?

anramon• 5 years ago

Where is segregation by comorbidity.

Covid-19 Cases and Deaths by Vaccination Status

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