Rise of the war machines: Charting the evolution of military technologies

https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0258161

by howsilly • 5 years ago

80 64 5 years ago

journals.plos.org

enzino9• 5 years ago

One has to wonder how much of military "tech" is simply fake. Until its use is demonstrated in war (which i absolutely do not advocate, and is known to affected by propaganda as well), all the incentives from weapons' manufacturers and buyers are to exaggerate features and effectiveness. The main victim is the gullible public, who funds the military-industrial complex with taxes.

ArtWomb• 5 years ago

Arthur C. Clark's "Superiority" comes to mind ;)

bpodgursky• 5 years ago

Even if 90% of military tech is fake (and I think "fake" more usually means "we think it works, but turns out it doesn't"), the other 10% can completely tip the scales in a war, to disastrous effect (to the loser). History has a lot of examples of technology which seemed preposterous until it completely turned the tides of battles or wars (radar, tanks, mustard gas, atomic bombs...)

Drone warfare is pretty clearly in this camp. Not a lot of people followed the Armenia / Azerbaijan war last year, but Armenia was fighting a war from 10 years ago (trench + urban warfare), and they got slaughtered by armed drones. It was a wipeout.

Nobody wants to be the Armenians in the next war... and often that means wasting a lot of money figuring out what the next breakthrough is.

enzino9• 5 years ago

your comment shows little knowledge of history. wars, historically, have been won by the parties with the strongest economy. that's even true for pre-historical conquests, as far as we know. ww2 was won by the midwest industrial base, and (mostly), the soviet's. check out the ussr industrial growth in the 30s. (they didn't have the fed wrecking havoc.) today there's no match for china, this is not even controversial. thankfully they're smart enough to understand that war doesn't make sense.

remarkEon4• 5 years ago

Yeah, I’ve been waiting for a full reading of last year’s Armenian/Azerbaijani conflict but haven’t seen anything that runs down the full event. Any links? Thus far I’ve found some YouTube or other video clips. Looking for a more technical exploration of how that tech was used.

throw3849• 5 years ago

Most countries have real safety concerns and their weapons are VERY effective.

wolverine8764• 5 years ago

It serves another purpose: Deterring potential enemies and giving confidence to allies. For example, the US has contributed to international peace East Asia for generations in part by having underlying muscle available. And today, if the US military tech was removed, I have a hard time imagining that alliances with Japan, S Korea, and others, not to mention Taiwan's freedom, would survive.

pasabagi2• 5 years ago

Wait, what? Did you miss the bit where they bombed North Korea until they had killed about one fifth of the population, and destroyed basically every form of standing shelter? Or the war in Vietnam? Or the support for South Korean dictators, even as they murdered their own people?

If that's a contribution to international peace, I hate to imagine what you'd think was a contribution to regional instability.

Even on a modern level, I think it's arguable that the 90's gulf war, and then the 2000's one, were the drivers behind a massive up-arming amongst states around the world that saw themselves as on the US's potential 'regime change' hitlist. It's often touted as a reason for China's massive arms buildup, for example.

anonporridge2• 5 years ago

I think that's partially why the United States is perpetually in some kind of war.

If you're the global superpower with an empire built on military might, you have to constantly practice your craft, and nothing beats the real thing.

And putting your capabilities on public display in a real theatre provides the entire world with the proof of violence (PoV) you are able to summon.

jonmc12• 5 years ago

The analysis of Cavalry and Iron is fascinating. As is the correlation between MilTech and Phylogeny (cultural similarity between polities).

I was most surprised that the authors had no strong theories about the role of "agricultural productivity". In addition to building armies from agricultural surplus, the ability to feed horses, people, elephants, etc was key to large military campaign. A common defensive technique against large army campaigns included burning agriculture.. for instance Hannibal's invasion of Rome. ie, the agriculture supply-chain itself seems to be a necessary pre-requisite to military campaigns with thousands of troops.

narrator2• 5 years ago

Speaking of examples of food innovation aiding military campaigns, Napoleon's army was responsible for the development of canned food[1].

[1] https://unrealfacts.com/napoleon-bonaparte-role-canned-food-...

aspenmayer2• 5 years ago

James Burke covers this in Connections, season one I believe.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Connections_(British_documenta...

baybal22• 5 years ago

To me, it's very clear. Drone warfare will be the next big thing after a nuke, and ICBM.

Probably it's the only thing which can shift the power poles from the current nuclear states.

narrator2• 5 years ago

Drones warfare will really have a big affect on small conflicts, not great power conflicts. Look at the recent Azerbaijan/Armenia war. Drones give the power of having a full fledged air force to small countries.

baybal22• 5 years ago

The role of drones in a big conflict is a tactical warfare again regaining critical importance.

Mid-sized drones are an unkillable airforce, following the front-line, with very small logistic footprint.

This way, nuclear countries cannot simply nuke your few airfields, and deprive your force in the field of air cover, and then bomb you with impunity with cheap bombs.

It very much means, a big conventional army can now get a decent chance to reach your capital in case of continental conflict even if you nuke all their airfields, and supply caches.

In fact, a lighter force can now have much bigger chances to win than a heavier one, burdened by expensive toys, with huge demand on supplies, which will run out of fuel in a day if the supply chain is interrupted. A tank without fuel is just a bunker with 50 cal. on top.

yellow_postit• 5 years ago

satellite sabotage/hijacking/repair is a field I would foresee parallel accelerating development in. The critical path for comms and vision when paired with drones makes leo a likely playground but with the fun dynamics of many amateur astronomers being able to watch what’s going on.

PeterisP• 5 years ago

In some sense, drones can replace the earlier usage of satellites, especially for countries which do not have a surveilalnce satellite fleet - satellites grant visibility of the battlefield without needing air superiority and risking your pilots; drones do the same. An in a major conflict, it's likely that the big players can take out each others' satellites (and those can't be replaced quickly/easily) but drone swarms can still provide battlefield visibility even in that case.

rogereur• 5 years ago

I think wars in the future will be about who's better at computer science. It will be programmers vs programmers, and computer literacy will become the new military service and a national security interest

wolverine8764• 5 years ago

It's just the technology of the day. From an earlier day:

"Oscar Wilde issued a memorable prediction of the war of the future: "A chemist on each side will approach the frontier with a bottle."

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2003/12/22/the-ring-and-t...

doomjunky• 5 years ago

I was astonished about the rapid expansion of the list of cyber warfare forces in recent years and by the incredible mass of cyber warfare capabilities of the United States.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cyber_warfare_forces

anonporridge2• 5 years ago

I think it will be more psychological.

Memetic warfare.

Hell, this kind of war has been raging for decades.

Most people just don't know it.

wolverine8764• 5 years ago

Here we analyze the evolution of key military technologies in a sample of pre-industrial societies world-wide covering almost 10,000 years of history using Seshat: Global History Databank.

Does anyone here know about that Seshat Databank? It looks fascinating, and I ran into it someplace else too. What is its scope? Who actually uses it and for what?

nradov2• 5 years ago

You can just read their own description.

http://seshatdatabank.info/seshat-about-us/

DiggyJohnson• 5 years ago

Re: Lazy Saturday Accommodations:

About Us Seshat: Global History Databank is a large, international, multidisciplinary team of evolutionary scientists, historians, anthropologists, archaeologists, economists, and other social scientists. Our team includes scholars from various backgrounds, policy makers, and enthusiastic volunteers. Seshat is governed by an editorial board, who oversee work done by postdoctoral researchers, collaborators and consultants, and research assistants all over the world. We are a nonprofit organization housed by the innovative Think-Tank the Evolution Institute. Our mission is to gather information from historical societies in order to rigorously test different hypotheses about the rise and fall of large-scale societies across the globe and human history.

The Seshat: Global History Databank is an umbrella organization for numerous research projects that examine different facets or themes of human life. Each project is headed by various members of the Seshat Team along with a group of consultants and contributing experts. Support for our research comes from a variety of private donors, academic, and governmental funding sources. The Seshat (project) Wikipedia page provides some additional information about how the project is organized and funded.

We also rely on the efforts of our team of Research Assistants and Volunteers — see how you can get involved in this exciting organization!

arminiusreturns• 5 years ago

It all cumulates eventually into a race to singularity, which is a zero sum game. Whoever gets there first wins. I promise to make mine mostly benevolent.

I think emp warfare (actually already quietly a thing) is going to be the in between for stuff like drones...

I hope the new generations of children are being taught old school survival skills, because they are probably going to need them.

One of the best books on the post nuclear world that I reference often is The Shield of Achilles, and one of the conclusions that sticks with me is that there will be a rise in corporate power and a fall of nation state power.

Fight club was right after all... "planet Starbucks" indeed.

usui• 5 years ago

I don't think a rise in corporate power and a fall of nation state power makes sense.

At some point, some group is going to need to have a monopoly on violence. It doesn't matter if two groups of power don't have complete dominance over a geographic region, they are still two groups with power that look after their own kind and perform diplomacy.

Rise of the war machines: Charting the evolution of military technologies

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