Chinese think America's weak Afghanistan exit is no laughing matter

https://burn@www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3145755/china-americas-messy-afghanistan-exit-more-laughing-matter/

by graderjs • 5 years ago

5 3 5 years ago

graderjs2• 5 years ago

From the text:

There is no doubt that the American debacle in Afghanistan has given China’s massive propaganda machine a field day, allowing it to pour scorn on American decline, but the claims of some overseas analysts that this has given China a strategic win are premature.

From a Chinese point of view, having US troops bogged down in Afghanistan has far greater geopolitical benefits. Now the American withdrawal will not only create uncertainties and risks in regional stability and the balance of power but will also allow Washington to focus more attention and resources on countering China.

I think this is true mostly. China shares a border and dealing with US (or a US puppet government?) in Afghanistan may have been easier than dealing with Taliban, particularly since, now, China seems to have little choice but to befriend to Taliban and deal with them. I wonder how they will handle it? I guess they will try to get another country involved to avoid dealing much directly.

mousepilot• 5 years ago

China will get along splendidly with the taliban, they have the moral flexibility to make any necessary adjustments.

graderjs2• 5 years ago

I don't think the key issue in intl relations is morals, but I agree that if they want to get along, they could. As you say, adjust. Realpolitik...But I think it will come down to what Talibanistan can do for them, and what problems they can avoid creating for China.

It's interesting because in some ways Taliban could pose a big threat to Chinese ambitions because they could potentially act as a base to drive more Xinjiang extremism. They also might be able to support Chinese tech manufacturing via rare Earths but that's probably not as easy to ensure as people seem to hope. I think it's no accident that before they even took Kabul, and before the 'collapse' was covered in international media, Wang Yi already met with the leader of the junta. They don't even send Wang Yi out to meet second-tier European countries I think. Not always.

Is it reading too much into it to say that the choice of Tianjin as the meeting location is deliberate? Sure, maybe it's just because the FM seems to be doing all their meetings in Tianjin lately, but looking at the history of Tianjin may provide some clues. It has a history of somewhat turbulent and politically significant international relations, conflicts and incidents:

- Site of Tianjin Church Massacre in the 19th Century where Chinese killed Christians under the pretext of the missionaries were kidnapping and brainwashing Chinese children

- Subject of the Treaty of Tianjin, where British and French navies forced China to concede opening the city up to foreign trade after a failed anti-piracy mission by Chinese against British pirates

- HQ of Boxer Rebellion which was then recaptured by an alliance of 'foreign invaders' the rebellion sought to expel

It's probably nothing, but certainly a place where you can recall interesting historical events in conversation, and throw ample references to conflict with the West, and international trade, perhaps two things that may make Talibanistan useful for China.

Finally, Tianjin used to the administrative center of the Viceroy of Zhili (in the Qing dynasty) which directly encircled the imperial capital Beijing. So in a sense if Beijing was the center, Tianjin was the capital of the area outside that--sort of a metaphor for China (as Beijing), surrounded by foreign regions with which it has relations. Tianjin was that capital of these 'external regions' so an appropriate place to hold foreign relations meetings.

Chinese think America's weak Afghanistan exit is no laughing matter

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