West’s incompetent response to pandemic will hasten the power-shift to the east

https://www.economist.com/open-future/2020/04/20/by-invitation-kishore-mahbubani

by pseudolus • 6 years ago

40 48 6 years ago

scoot_718• 6 years ago

And what about China's incompetent response?

That was mentioned in the article - it was described as disastrous, at least initially. Now? China has a firmer grasp on the problem of COVID-19 and are battling it on many fronts, including the geopolitical.

Western governments (edit:those listed in the article such as the US and European powers), on the other hand, have been beset by decades of political parties attacking the legitimacy and foundations of the political system in order to score points against their rivals. This has led to a widespread unease and distrust among their voters, and a subsequent weakening of their governmental controls and regulations.

I don't agree with all the points raised in this piece, and I suspect that this weakness of the West is part of a longer cycle. But, for now, there is some points raised in this article that we should ponder.

rumanator2• 6 years ago

China has a firmer grasp on the problem of COVID-19

Between covering up the fact that their death rate was a few orders of magnitude higher and deciding to intentionally leaving out infected but asymptomatic cases from their infection statistics while boasting that new cases occurred due to infected foreigners entering the country , it's patently obvious that the Chinese regime does not and never had a good grasp on the problem.

And if that does not convince you, let's not forget that the Chinese regime's talking heads tried to pin the blame of their outbreak on Italy.

userulluipeste• 6 years ago

"This has led to a widespread unease and distrust among their voters, and a subsequent weakening of their governmental controls and regulations."

Yet, somehow, living in one of such "western" governed places, I don't feel that there is less governmental control than before. To give you two examples, I remember a time when digital fingerprinting of civilians was mandated only in a criminal context, but now one has to be fingerprinted just to get an ID (passport). Not long ago one could make easy anonymous calls (think of whistleblowing or whatnot). Not anymore, as the public phones aren't around any more and since not so long ago getting a cell phone number requires revealing one's identity. These may be anecdotal, but still.

galaxyLogic2• 6 years ago

Right let us not forget that China tried to hide it all initially, attacking the whistle-blower.

Such a thing as jailing whistle-blower happens more easily in autocracies than in democracies, one could assume.

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/0...

thawaway18372• 6 years ago

The US, today, has a whole horde of influential people (including the President, probably) who are attacking Dr Fauci.

At a time where the virus and its lethality is undeniable, and Fauci isn’t even just a random doctor, but probably one of the most decorated doctor in the past few decades.

squiggleblaz4• 6 years ago

Mainland China lost a five thousand people and got less than 90 thousand infected without warning. Germany still receives praise for a "competent" response with so far the same number of dead and they're so far at more than 140 thousand infected. And that's one of the most praised responses in the West!

China responded badly and recovered. West is still in an arrogant denial.

sebwi2• 6 years ago

So, you are confident that the numbers published by the Chinese government are accurate?

thawaway18372• 6 years ago

China’s incompetent response was at worse as bad as, say, the US, UK or the EU’s incompetent response at least a few months later when the scale and dangers of this virus were far more evident.

Heck, in the US the President is still engaging in the kind of denialism and lies that we are calling China incompetent for because they engaged in it in the very beginning of the crisis, where the impact was not clear at all.

vosper4• 6 years ago

The crisis highlights the contrast between the competent responses of East Asian governments (notably China, South Korea and Singapore) and the incompetent responses of Western governments (such as Italy, Spain, France, Britain and America). The far lower death rates suffered by East Asian countries is a lesson to all. They reflect not just medical capabilities, but also the quality of governance and the cultural confidence of their societies.

Ooh, can I do some cherry-picking, too?

How about the incompetent response of the Japanese government, where it's gotten so bad that healthcare workers warned their healthcare system may collapse [0]

Singapore's having their own Covid resurgence [1], related to those underpaid and exploited migrant workers, crammed into dormitories, which they'd like everyone to continue to pretend don't exist (in Singapore the streets clean themselves).

In the Phillipines Duterte has used the pandemic to seize even more power for himself, heading in the direction of becoming a fully-fledged military dictator. [2]

For Western governments, how about the lauded [3] response of New Zealand [4] and, perhaps to a lesser extent, Australia?

This is an article that started with a thesis (China will use its power!), cherry-picks a tiny amount of supporting evidence to tie in with Covid (so topical right now), then wanders off down the well-trodden path of speculating about future Chinese influence (despite the initial mentions of Singapore and South Korea, this is article actually only about China) and the downfall of the West.

[0] https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-52336388

[1] https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/covid-19-new-...

[2] https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/20/opinions/duterte-covid-19...

[3] https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/04/jacinda...

[4] Disclosure: I'm a Kiwi, and think our government have done a reasonably good job responding to the pandemic. I also think foreign press lavishes far too much praise our on government and Prime Minister.

ShorsHammer• 6 years ago

NZ and Aus wasn't in flu season already, this has a big impact on outcomes, we got lucky in that respect with forewarning.

Singapore's resurgence is pretty unavoidable, there's simply nowhere else for these foreign workers to go. Despite the case numbers deaths are remarkably low, basically all of these dorms are getting tested leading to resurgence in case numbers, it's tens of thousands of people.

So despite all the socio-political criticisms in your post how about addressing the quoted comment?

They are far lower death rates, it's undeniable. Singapore has had 11 deaths. Malaysia 90. South Korea and Japan ~230.

vosper4• 6 years ago

Singapore's resurgence is pretty unavoidable, there's simply nowhere else for these foreign workers to go. Despite the case numbers deaths are remarkably low, basically all of these dorms are getting tested leading to resurgence in case numbers, it's tens of thousands of people.
So despite all the socio-political criticisms in your post how about addressing the quoted comment?
They are far lower death rates, it's undeniable. Singapore has had 11 deaths. Malaysia 90. South Korea and Japan ~230.

The deaths lag behind the newly-identified infections. Singapore's resurgence now won't translate into more deaths for a 5-15 days. Japan's probably in the same situation - aging population and all. The article I linked to, warning of a "collapse" in Japan's healthcare system, doesn't inspire a lot of hope for the immediate future.

I didn't say anything about South Korea or Malaysia, seems like they've done a good job so far. I'm not saying all his examples are wrong, just that he's cherry-picking.

Anyway the article has nothing really to do with South Korea or Singapore or Malaysia - Malaysia is not even mentioned! He could have mentioned them, if they're doing well and the article was actually about Asian leadership in the crisis and it's after effects, and not just more speculation about China's possible political intentions.

cylinder2• 6 years ago

we were in flu season - 2200 cases in Feb in Australia. Social distancing killed the flu too.

lazylizard• 6 years ago

328k ppl living in those dorms.

squiggleblaz4• 6 years ago

Since a coronavirus isn't an influenza virus, I don't see what it matters whether Australia or New Zealand were in flu season. Moreover, it's now flu season and people are tiring of the social distancing measures and new cases per day are extremely low.

Australians and New Zealanders can rightly be annoyed that the responses were not excellent - but the responses were basically adequate. They were just enough and a little bit late - compared to europe which was too little too late.

If diverse countries like Taiwan, South Korea, Malaysia and Vietnam were capable of mounting competent responses (during the Taiwanese/South Korean flu season), there is no reason to say that Australia/New Zealand were somehow incapable. It's far more likely that we were "lucky" because our timezone and flight time was too far apart to become part of the conversations that lead to social suicide, so our leaders made basically competent responses.

cylinder2• 6 years ago

Not a lesser extent for Aus - lower cases per capita including deaths. And most cases in Aus were acquired overseas

vosper4• 6 years ago

Yeah, fair enough - Australia has had good results with their policies, too.

ourlordcaffeine• 6 years ago

Don't forget that Taiwan handled covid-19 the best of all, and they are a democracy. The whole "democracy has failed to handle covid-19" narrative falls apart once you stop cherrypicking

squiggleblaz4• 6 years ago

I don't think the claim was "All eastern governments did well", but more like "Most governments that did well, especially the ones vying for international clout, were eastern". Australia and New Zealand have never been considered particularly influential or leaders on the western stage. Although other westerners like us, we are not especially influential. The influence we have sought to exert on the developing world has been limited to South East Asia and the Pacific Islands, were states are generally doing well so the adequate response of ANZ is merely likely to get them to say "look, we're not so different" rather than "oh we respect you". So it seems barely relevant.

aaron6952• 6 years ago

While Asia is hobbled by lockdowns for years the West has allowed it to go rampant and will just pop out the other end.

Best case the West has also wiped out a generation of healthcare and pensions to pay.

The West is also more nationalised than ever with a somewhat unified anti-China stance.

The West has become more powerful relative to the East.

squiggleblaz4• 6 years ago

Herd immunity from this coronavirus remains an unproven hypothesis, and most people claim it will only last 6-24 months. Is there any reason to believe we get can it through 60-80% of our society within 12 months?

The death rate of people over 65 is still quite low. To say the West has wiped out a generation of healthcare and pensions is just incredible. Most of these retired people are still around.

Wishful thinking.

aaron6952• 6 years ago

and most people claim it will only last 6-24 months.

It's best guessed at being several years.

But 6-24 months is very possible but it's not really relevant to an article claiming the East has beaten the West, 6 months would redefine everything.

Is there any reason to believe we get can it through 60-80% of our society within 12 months?

It's a good question, let me check the "flatten the curve" graphs that are everywhere that people are using to shift policy.

Jokes aside the Imperial College report put it at ~4 months untouched for instance.

So fully reopen with social distancing measures like masks, then 12 months seems possible.

MarkusQ• 6 years ago

Is there any reason to believe we get can it through 60-80% of our society within 12 months?

Exponential growth. Suppose the doubling time is 10 days (it's probably less) and there is one person loose who has it (there are probably more). One year would be 35 doublings (actually, slightly more) which would be enough time for 2^35 = 34 billion people to get it. Since this is well over four times the present world population, it's not unreasonable to suppose 60-80% of the people will have had it by then.

netjiro2• 6 years ago

Best case the West has also wiped out a generation of healthcare and pensions to pay.

? really? Are you actually proposing that killing off people when they retire is a good thing for society?

indemnity2• 6 years ago

But it is? Putting aside the morality.

They’re no longer paying tax, they’ll free up housing when they go, and probably leave inheritances.

We just can’t talk about it, but there are benefits to cleaning house.

Bayart• 6 years ago

Few will forget that in the same week that the Trump administration banned travel from Europe (without any advance notice), the Chinese government sent medical equipment including masks, ventilators, protective suits and doctors to Italy and Spain. This is why the Group of Seven countries resisted pressure by America to call covid-19 the “Wuhan virus” in a communique after a virtual meeting in March.

No, we ignored Trump's spin because it's on the nose nonsense and we've got better things to do than turning everything into a tool for political gain.

Nobody's blind regarding China's « help », and we'd rather do without.

aivisol• 6 years ago

Today the quality of governance in East Asia sets the global standard. The leaders who turned their countries around, such as Deng Xiaoping in China and Lee Kuan Yew in Singapore, planted the seeds of knowledge, internationalism and order in their societies.

Am I reading The Economist or Pravda?

perpetualpatzer• 6 years ago

You're reading the opinion section of The Economist, in which the featured opinion is that of outside contributor, Kishore Mabubani, a former Singoporean diplomat.

indemnity2• 6 years ago

Singapore is probably going to have a worse time of it than most, in the post-globalisation future we’re hurtling towards.

secfirstmd2• 6 years ago

Where is the mention of Western countries that have manages it well like in New Zealand with Jacinda Ardern or Germany Angela Merkel?

commandlinefan• 6 years ago

"A policeman's job is only easy in a police state" -- Touch of Evil

tradewarsonlyn• 6 years ago

Is someone taking bets on whether this will happen? I would happily wager real $ against this wildly cultivated opinion. Autocratic, authoritarian regimes will never command global acceptance over democracy. I have that much belief in humanity.

secfirstmd2• 6 years ago

I'm inclined to agree. There is a thesis, I think it's Samuel Huntington, that democracy moves in waves, two steps forward and one backwards. Right now we are in a backward phase from the perception of the West.

Having said that I am fortunate enough to spend a lot of working with democracy activists in the rest of the world and my sense is that there is an ever increasing desire for that, just look at the small pockets of increasing hope in Asia and Africa.

pasabagi• 6 years ago

I'm also pretty optimistic about democracy. The problem with autocracies is that while any given dictator can be dynamic and capable, and the administration can work well for a while, autocratic regimes tend to stagnate because there are no checks and balances to stop corruption and nepotism.

Also, democracy reduces the amount of violence necessary to keep a state going in tough times. While violence itself isn't a problem in strictly pragmatic terms, it does create a sort of moral malaise that leads to a dispirited, cynical and corrupt governmental culture, that ultimately leads to regime instability.

People often forget that autocracy is what democracy replaced - and the autocracies were replaced not just because they were bad in a moral sense, but that they were also badly run, dysfunctional, and uncompetitive.

West’s incompetent response to pandemic will hasten the power-shift to the east

Related Stories