What could individuals have done to have predicted this crisis?

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22654377

by topaztee • 6 years ago

2 3 6 years ago

news.ycombinator.com

Hindsight is 20/20. What mental models/questions could we periodically ask ourselves to predict these kinds of crisises?

gus_massa• 6 years ago

Q: Will the SARS epidemy of 2002-2003 get repeated? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndr...

A: Yes

Someone said that one of the reasons that Taiwan has controlled the epidemy is that they are preparing for SARS2 since 2002-2003. (And it is an island, that reduce the entry points.)

karlicoss• 6 years ago

So, at the moment we've got a virus spreading, not even particularly vile (which is of course not an excuse not to contain it etc.). Flu-like virues is something people are fairly familiar with, it's impressive how we've got the genome sequences and strains classified so fast. However, some people have warned/predicted that would happen, you could dismiss this as a hindsight, but still, pandemics are something people can foresee and know how to deal with.

Even more insteresting question, IMO is: how do we prepare for some event we can't even think of?

Is there a good framework for brainstorming and thinking about potential events threatening the whole civilization? Any low hanging fruits (in terms of preparedness and knowledge)?

topaztee• 6 years ago

"how do we prepare for some event we can't even think of?" this question is much better phrased & where my intention for this thread lies.

What could individuals have done to have predicted this crisis?

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