The Arctic may have crossed key threshold in a long-dreaded climate feedback

https://www.adn.com/nation-world/2019/12/10/the-arctic-may-have-crossed-key-threshold-in-a-long-dreaded-climate-feedback/

by ForHackernews • 7 years ago

82 53 7 years ago

adn.com

aazaa• 7 years ago

Bogus Norton security alert. I'm outta there.

abathur• 7 years ago

Ditto.

ForHackernews3• 7 years ago

Also on WaPo, but paywalled https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/12/10/arctic-may...

cardamomo• 7 years ago

Original source: https://www.arctic.noaa.gov/Report-Card/Report-Card-2019

bamboozled2• 7 years ago

Wil anything be done about it? Does any “world leaders” really care ?

We have all the technology available to solve this issue, will we be given the political support and permissions to use it ?

john_moscow• 7 years ago

It is being gradually addressed. Battery technology, biofuels, renewables, electric vehicles, etc. have greatly advanced over the past decade and are continuing to improve. Also when the climate effects become more observable by an average person, the public interest in those areas will rise and we will likely see faster progress.

ascii_only4• 7 years ago

100 companies are responsible for 71% of emissions. Projects that you have listed are important but more likely only help individuals to feel that something is being fixed instead of any real impact.

bamboozled2• 7 years ago

I think this is the key point. Effects are becoming more impacting to “common folk”, this seems to be spurring bigger turnouts to climate rallies and pushing politicians to dig deeper on solutions.

perfunctory5• 7 years ago

Wil anything be done about it?

Not if you and I don't demand it. And demanding takes more then simply voting.

ForHackernews3• 7 years ago

https://rebellion.earth/

https://www.sunrisemovement.org/

lukifer• 7 years ago

If pitched properly (as a relatively conservative, "small government" alternative to the Green New Deal), I think a Carbon Dividend could be very popular, not least because it would be net-cash-positive for most working folks. It may not move the needle as fast as we want (need?), but if a price is set on carbon, behaviors will start to change, both from consumers and industry.

https://citizensclimatelobby.org/carbon-fee-and-dividend/

makerofspoons• 7 years ago

Please note that IPCC projections do not include carbon from permafrost in their projections: https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2018/02/the-permafros...

As a result, the carbon budget for keeping warming under two degrees over postindustrial (widely thought to be catastrophic but survivable) has shrunk. Dr. Peter Carter, one of the IPCC's reviewers, explains how we are likely to miss 1.5 and 2 degree targets: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oa13KrOvE2s

ForHackernews3• 7 years ago

My impression (as a nonscientist who sometimes works with climate scientists) is that very few experts believe we have a realistic chance of holding to 2 degrees.

Personally, I think the situation is likely much worse than reported in the mainstream media. There's a fear of scaring people too much, or making them give up in despair, so we keep hearing about how we "could" meet these increasingly farcical reduction targets, even as we're blowing past them.

jlmorton4• 7 years ago

I watched the entire interview with Dr. Peter Carter. At about 19:50 in the interview, he talks about a "Massive! Massive increase in methane." He talks about an incredible eruption of methane, almost in apocalyptic terms, he says he knows of no other source it could be other than methane hydrates, and he is shocked that it hasn't received more media attention.

He then kind of vacillates a bit when asked to quantify it. He talks about historic methane concentrations from ice core samples and then compares that to current methane concentrations in Barrow, AK, the site of the methane eruption.

This was intriguing to me, so I tried to find the original report he's talking about. What it shows is absolutely nothing like he represents. Indeed, there has been large and rapid increase in methane concentrations in Barrow, Alaska over the past few years. But it's a change of about 5-10% [1]. And there were similar-scale eruptions in years past, such as in 2003.

The change is certainly more rapid than the trend. It's probably noteworthy. Clearly something is happening in that area. But this sort of silly exaggeration is one of the reasons why so many dismiss climate science.

If you want people to believe you, don't exaggerate the science.

[1] https://eandt.theiet.org/content/articles/2019/09/arctic-met...

perfunctory5• 7 years ago

What it shows is absolutely nothing like he represents

The report you linked doesn't sound much less alarming:

"To spot methane levels breaking the 2000ppb mark so sharply in this fragile region is unprecedented, as the chart below illustrates."

matmatmatmat2• 7 years ago

Are you qualified to evaluated what makes a change large or small?

Is it possible that a 5-10% change is actually "massive"?

thebokehwokeh2• 7 years ago

Assuming now that we are past the point of no return and the world has gone mad voting in people who will do the opposite of what is necessary, what is left to do?

Do we all simply wait for the inevitable like frogs in a slowly boiling pot? I guess I could practice survival skills but I'd rather die than live in what I expect will be absolute hell come 20 - 30 years.

perfunctory5• 7 years ago

what is left to do?

what people always do when they are dissatisfied with the government. organise with like minded people and rebel.

Udik2• 7 years ago

Rebel against the majority? Because the government doesn't act because the majority doesn't want it to, despite vague propositions. Want to tax your own fuel and heating? Want to stop flying? Want to put millions out of business in your country because the cost of energy and materials went through the roof? This is what we're talking about. Of course it's very satisfying to not want these things and spend the time blaming politicians for their inaction.

linuxftw2• 7 years ago

The world temperature is not going to run away in 30 years, there's nothing to worry about.

estebank2• 7 years ago

The problem that is going to affect most people most directly is not raising sea levels or being too hot outside, it's the disruption of just in time food production chains that have centralized in fewer and fewer places. Alaska might benefit by turning into a good production powerhouse in the long term, but in the meantime things aren't going to be pretty because very little change is needed for crops to be unviable in the locales they're currently grown.

marknadal• 7 years ago

Please contact me, a friend, or family member - my contact info is in my profile. If you're struggling with some pretty hard & depressing subjects, that is ok, just please don't become suicidal.

cryptonector• 7 years ago

Spoiler: it's not about polar bears. Their numbers are through the roof.

pacerwpg• 7 years ago

Yes, thanks to conservation efforts.

agumonkey3• 7 years ago

Climate changes news are chokeful of "may" but one thing is for sure is the lack of actual human response to fix anything.

core-questions4• 7 years ago

What am I supposed to go and do? Re-freeze Siberia?

cdumler• 7 years ago

Whatever you _can_ do. Consider your footprint and ask yourself what can you reduce in fuel, energy and water usage. An immediate contributor is eating meat, which is crazy energy intensive.

geddy2• 7 years ago

If you're really asking, the simplest way for all of us to help is to stop consuming meat, eggs, and dairy, for one.

antisthenes• 7 years ago

It's interesting, because re-freezing Siberia is exactly what some Russian scientists are attempting.

Their logic is that by reintroducing megafauna like elk and moose into more parts of Siberia, these animals will graze during winter to survive, thus exposing more of the soil, which lets the frost permeate down to further depths and slows down the recession of permafrost.

Their logic is sound and experiments have demonstrated that grazing animals do help to reintroduce permafrost, but I seriously doubt their operation is scalable (they are something like a 3-5 man team)

agumonkey3• 7 years ago

if you have money and time:

- reinsulate your house

- if you live in a sunny place, build/buy a solar heated water tank

- plant trees

- try zero waste lifestyle

- fund lithium recycling plants

- buy electric companies stock

- fund a local veggies club

- fund a repair / recycling shop

- harass your family and neighbors to use the two above

- walk any distance below 5 miles that doesn't require heavy loads (or rain)

- stop buying

- go to an AWS datacenter and cut some wires at random

If you don't have money nor time:

- paste this comment to people you don't know on the internet

The Arctic may have crossed key threshold in a long-dreaded climate feedback

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