A $442B Money Manager Says Tech's Glory Days Are Over

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-05/a-442-billion-money-manager-says-tech-s-glory-days-are-over

by HillaryBriss • 7 years ago

23 21 7 years ago

debt• 7 years ago

I always say that the gap between now and the future will be filled with technology. So I don't know what she's referring to as the only path towards the future is through technology.

kabes• 7 years ago

Maybe try and read the article first. It's a she and it's about the US market.

stantaylor• 7 years ago

It's really about the top of the US tech sector. I'm not sure I buy the thesis, but the problems that she highlights are real. The US is finally beginning to lose its historic dominance in the market.

jimbob45• 7 years ago

"Within sectors, Shah recommends utilities or real estate. Since the start of May, the two classic bond proxies are the only S&P 500 sectors in the green. Globally, she prefers U.S. stocks over emerging markets."

I keep reading on here that no real estate safeguards were put in place after the 2008 crash. Why would anyone feel safe investing heavily in real estate knowing that?

toomuchtodo4• 7 years ago

So late in the debt cycle, I’d avoid RE like the plague (although it appears interest rate increases are off the table for the foreseeable future). And utilities? With renewables being deployed and still coming down in cost? No no no.

_ea1k3• 7 years ago

Why is progress in renewables a bad thing for utilities? Just in the past 10 years or so, coal prices have increased by ~50% while natural gas prices have dropped at an even greater rate. Churn in the prices of underlying energy generation technologies seems both inevitable and 100% normal for the industry. I don't see any reason why this can't be profitable just because the churn might be renewable during the next cycle.

refurb2• 7 years ago

People talk a lot about what will be the trigger for the next recession. I could see it being tech. Not the blow up of 2001, but rather a capping out of growth by the big tech companies as they turn into giant, stable to slightly contracting behemoths.

rubidium• 7 years ago

Like verizon, AT&T, Sprint, IBM, Oracle...

I'd disagree that they're necessary not growing. Just growing at a more typical market rate for an established industry.

not_a_moth• 7 years ago

Also possible tech trigger: extremely unprofitable tech companies going public. Slack, Uber, Lyft, etc. In fact,

"In 2018, 81 percent of US companies were unprofitable in the year leading up to their public offerings... That's a statistical dead heat with the rate in 2000, the year the dot-com bubble burst"[1]

[1] https://www.vox.com/2019/3/6/18249997/lyft-uber-ipo-public-p...

refurb2• 7 years ago

Yup! It's still a big unknown if those companies can actually live up to their expectations with regards to profitability.

I have a sense as soon as the first one fails, the others will be under a lot of pressure combined with negative sentiment.

thtthings• 7 years ago

What is the difference between her and an astrologer? If she is so sure, they should return all their clients money(invested in tech) or put them in defensive stocks. I kinda envy her for making a lot of money and being on TV for i don't know what! no one can predict what's going to happen. Golden state winning yesterday was a sure thing. But then didn't! and now i finally realize that i or nobody has any idea what's going to happen.

Looking at the past we can say with certainty(if we assume it will repeat) that stocks will crash someday. When that happens some money that can be risked should be used to buy a well diversified ETF. Till then if you can't hold on to cash then keeping buying every month.

commandlinefan• 7 years ago

What is the difference between her and an astrologer?

$442B.

0xDEFC0DE• 7 years ago

What is the difference between her and an astrologer?

To be fair, they don't let random astrologians on the curb manage $442 billion.

That said, this is likely just PR for her personal/firm's position against tech and likely bullshit. If a recession happens tomorrow, tech would be affected and she'll win even though the underlying cause probably wasn't tech. I think the DOJ investigations will make tech more interesting at least, so I really doubt the "glory days are over" when more glory opportunity comes along (whatever the fuck glory means in tech).

_bxg1• 7 years ago

Tech's growth has been riding on monopolies (FAANG) and useless, manipulative apps (a large portion of SV startups) for the past decade. It's no surprise that a correction is coming. Useful software will never stop being important, but there's a whole lot of fat right now that's just waiting to be trimmed from the industry.

germanlee• 7 years ago

"All Companies Are in the Tech Business Now"

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-05-08/all-co...

"Every Company Is Now a Tech Company"

https://www.wsj.com/articles/every-company-is-now-a-tech-com...

It's amazing how the story changes just within a few months or years. Tech is the future of everything one day. The next, its glory days are behind it.

lostmsu• 7 years ago

Or maybe she just does not know which tech to invest into.

A $442B Money Manager Says Tech's Glory Days Are Over

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