Low-earth orbit satellites threatened by debris from Indian anti-satellite test

https://breakingdefense.com/2019/04/indian-asat-debris-threatens-all-leo-sats/

by ENOTTY • 7 years ago

155 99 7 years ago

Just wait until an armed conflict. China/Russia/US/India will take about 20 minutes to blast every satellite in the sky. Then space will be inaccessible for decades at least.

kuzehanka2• 7 years ago

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kessler_syndrome

And that's how we close off our only window to expand beyond this planet as a species.

gruez• 7 years ago

From your link:

The catastrophic scenarios predict an increase in the number of collisions per year, as opposed to a physically impassable barrier to space exploration that occurs in higher orbits.

gpm• 7 years ago

Space will be accessible, just not parking in low earth orbit.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kessler_syndrome#Implications

herohamp• 7 years ago

Oh just wait till the spaceX internet satellites are setup, and the amazon internet satellites. Low earth orbit is about to be full, debris up there is going to be super dangerous

ethbro3• 7 years ago

Not necessarily.

To a large extent, LEO aggression can be modeled even more dissuasively (collapsing into MAD) via game theory.

If I blow up your satellites, and I don't know where the pieces are liable to go, then I imperil my own satellites in a similar orbit.

Ergo, if I have space assets and ASAT capability, the strictly dominating strategy is to publicly declare I will only deploy my ASAT weapons in defense or if strategic red lines are breached (e.g. territorial invasion).

Consequently, it's in the US's best interests for other countries with ASAT capabilities to increase their satellite capabilities.

mips_avatar3• 7 years ago

Yeah but if a country with ASAT was going to be bombed, do you think they would give the enemy the benefit of GPS or communications satellites?

sys_64738• 7 years ago

If a rogue nation develops such missile technology then they could cause incredible disruption to the rest of the world. E.g. think of the DPRK being able to knock out GPS satellites - this missile tech could bring is western currency for the DPRK if the like of al-Quieda or the Taleban were willing to pay millions of $$$ to them for downing US military sats.

Zancarius• 7 years ago

GPS satellites aren't in low earth orbit, though. I'd imagine taking out something 12,000 miles up is going to remain out of reach for countries like the DPRK.

There's some fear mongering over China related to this[1], but I don't think the capability has ever been demonstrated because of the implications.

[1] https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/china-will-soon-be-ab...

Edit: I posted incorrect information. GPS satellites orbit at ~12,000 miles, not GSO at 22,000.

petre2• 7 years ago

One doesn't even need to blow them up. An EMP from a thermonuclear blast would probably fry ther circuitry anyway.

kappi• 7 years ago

https://sattrackcam.blogspot.com/2019/04/ most of the debris will stay on orbit for several weeks to months: by half a year from now, most of it should be gone however, except for a few lingering pieces.

Probability is very low similar to the one in the below article.

Odds of hitting is 1 in 300 Trillion https://www.livescience.com/61955-chinese-space-station-reen...

dosy• 7 years ago

Aside: Any idea what that Latin motto is on this blog?

TOTUS VESTRI ARCANA NOCTI NOBIS EST

Google translate refused.

figgis• 7 years ago

Don't know latin in any way shape or form. Just was curious and used this like a small puzzle. Added a bit more context to words that weren't very self explanatory.

    TOTUS - all/whole

    VESTRI - your

    ARCANA - secrets

    NOCTI - night? - 'used in formation of compound words' [0]

    NOBIS - us/we

    EST - to be - "can be translated as 'it is,' 'he/she is,' or simply 'is.' It is the third person singular of the present tense of the verb 'to be'" [1]

Sooo my guess would be something along the lines "All the secrets of the night belong to us?"

If someone knows any better I would love to be corrected.

[0] https://www.dictionary.com/browse/nocti- [1] - https://study.com/academy/answer/what-does-est-mean-in-latin...

ahmedalsudani• 7 years ago

[Edited with another mistake]

I suspect it uses the wrong case (declension) for some of those words and I'm not sure if arcana can be used as a noun--I've forgotten some of my Latin. My best guesses:

What was intended: "all the secrets of your night are ours"

It actually says something closer to: "all the secrets of your night are to us"

It should use noster, as opposed to nos (nobis in the dative case), if I understand the intended meaning correctly.

The reason I suspect wrong case is that nobis is in the dative case whereas I think it should be a nominative in order to agree with the subject (so "noster" in order to agree with totus).

badosu• 7 years ago

All your bases are belong to us

mattnewport• 7 years ago

Why are you linking to a completely unrelated article about the chances of a human being hit by debris from a Chinese space station falling out of orbit in this discussion?

The original article says it is hard to estimate the increased risk due to this incident but says one NASA official estimates an increased chance of the ISS needing to maneuver to avoid debris from 20% to 30%, although that estimate should really be given with an associated time period to be meaningful.

r3bl4• 7 years ago

Worth noting: India is the fourth(!) country that destroyed a satellite in orbit.

While I would love nothing more but for it be the last country to do so, the precedent was set some time ago. The one that China destroyed in 2007 (or 2008?) was by far the biggest, creating thousands of pieces of debris bigger than a golf ball. 270 pieces (detected so far after India destroyed a satellite) seems pretty insignificant in comparison.

yumraj3• 7 years ago

According to Wikipedia, regarding the 2007 Chinese anti-satellite missile test [0]:

This event was the largest recorded creation of space debris in history with more than 2,000 pieces of trackable size (golf ball size and larger) officially cataloged in the immediate aftermath, and an estimated 150,000 debris particles.

As of October 2016, a total of 3,438 pieces of debris had been detected, with 571 decayed and 2,867 still in orbit nine years after the incident.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Chinese_anti-satellite_mi...

tomrod• 7 years ago

This smacks of a justification through tu quoque fallacy. Just because other nations destroyed satellites doesn't mean this type of weapons testing should continue. We should criticize nations that did this before AND India.

Polluting LEO to the point where we endanger our ability to get off the earth is extremely myopic.

r3bl4• 7 years ago

I'd call this anything but whataboutism.

The China's example is there because it puts the threat mentioned in the title into a perspective.

We definitely shouldn't destroy any satellites, but we already did. I don't see a reason not to compare them when we discuss how big is the threat.

EDIT: to those who downvote this comment, I'd love an explanation why you think I shouldn't make this comparison. As far as I know, no country destroyed more than one, so how else am I supposed to compare them?

AndrewKemendo• 7 years ago

You can reliably predict a whataboutism argument will be in the top comments on any HN post that follows the format:

[Country] did [bad thing] that affected [everyone/other countries]

It's to the point that there's typically limited discussion about the topic itself and a lot of back and forth whataboutism.

msravi• 7 years ago

We should criticize nations that did this before AND India.

Sure. Just that the "we" cannot be one of the nations that did this before, as is the case here. That's hypocrisy and entitlement.

rjf72• 7 years ago

This is a bit of a misunderstanding of the problem. Imagine you took a car and you drove in a straight line in any direction in the US where you'd loop back at the end. And now imagine somebody else did the same thing. How likely would you be to collide? You'd have either 0 or 1 collision point in your paths. Usually it'd be 0. And even in the case where you had 1, the chances of you both hitting that point at the exact same time would be infinitesimally low. Now have thousands of cars do the same thing. And all the above still holds true over one 'iteration', or two or three or... However, any two cars that have at least one intersection point will eventually collide (excepting a perfectly synchronized orbit timing) so long as they keep going. It might take a long time, as in potentially thousands of years, but if you get enough cars doing this and you run them long enough - eventually you'll get a pair that will have a collision within some foreseeable time. This is analogous to how things collide in space, except space is much bigger.

In other words Kesseler syndrome does not create some sort of impassable barrier -- in the above analog imagine your risk of getting hit by a car if you stand in one place for 30 seconds - again, basically 0. It just makes collisions, over the longrun, more likely to occur between orbiting bodies. There's absolutely no risk of impairing our ability to get off Earth -- just our ability to circle around it for years in fixed orbits. And in reality, I think it's almost certain we'll eventually see a Kessler syndrome type event. The first thing two capable nations involved in an armed conflict would do is to destroy each others' satellites, resulting in a severe mutual crippling of both offensive and defensive capabilities (as well as civil chaos - imagine if GPS/comms were all taken out tomorrow!) at very low cost. So the only way we do not see a Kessler Syndrome type event is if there's literally never a significant armed conflict between any of US/Russia/China/India, and whatever other future nations develop this technology. The odds of that seem to be pretty much 0.

__m• 7 years ago

I doubt that “we might be able to shoot down your satellites too” is a good deterrent. I also don’t buy that the US aimed slightly next to the targets and just accidentally destroyed satellites, no way that higher ups would be satisfied by that

Dylan168072• 7 years ago

Polluting LEO to the point where we endanger our ability to get off the earth is extremely myopic.

Not a notable risk here. All this debris is short-term. If the Chinese satellite had been at the same altitude, all its debris would be long gone by now.

jplayer013• 7 years ago

So because the US engaged in nuclear weapons tests above ground decades ago, it's okay for everybody else to do it too? I'm not sure how the bad behavior of others makes this behavior any less bad. I'm sure China destroying that satellite was widely criticized at the time too, but at some point we need to be able to sit back and say "Well, that's just not acceptable", regardless of who's still doing it or who's done it before. People commit murder everyday, that still doesn't make it okay.

r3bl4• 7 years ago

China faced no consequences, US faced no consequences a year after the Chinese one, and I doubt India will face any consequences now.

It's absolutely not okay and no country should do it. Saying "you shouldn't" to everyone else isn't gonna be effective at all when the precedent is set. Singing a treaty (like the nuclear treaties we've signed) might.

godelmachine2• 7 years ago

Would you kindly elaborate on how it’s justifiable to equate murder with a nations deterrance?

Mirioron2• 7 years ago

So because the US engaged in nuclear weapons tests above ground decades ago, it's okay for everybody else to do it too?

Yes, pretty much. If a country doesn't want other countries to do a certain action then they themselves shouldn't do it either. You can't expect to be able to benefit from something and then deny other countries the same, unless you want to be a tyrant.

jalajc• 7 years ago

Good attempt for discrediting a successful mission. The agressive title couldn't be substantiated in entire article, ...and what about those 3 nations that caused debris before, if so!

hutzlibu• 7 years ago

"and what about those 3 nations that caused debris before, if so!"

They get no respect here for that either.

Abishek_Muthian3• 7 years ago

Blind nationalism would deter our progress as a species.

Ever since NASA chief's comment, the arguments have been very polarised. What NASA said is scientifically accurate & being one of the major stake holder in ISS it has a duty to tell its opinion. There are people in International Space Station, don't forget that their family on earth would want an answer from NASA for such incidents.

The issue in the country seems to be, not what NASA said; but why did it say that!

Yes, US has conducted similar tests & its debris went further in apogee as well & since it didn't change orbit[second application of delta-v is required to do that]; it decayed eventually. Same will happen with the debris we caused as there is not much change in perigee.

If ASATs renew new arms race across the planet & everyone starts blowing satellites, it's not good for the humanity.

If Israel can enforce deterrence as a nuclear power without conducting or acknowledging major nuclear tests, India can project space warfare ready without indulging in such activities; after all there was no doubt about our rocket engineering capabilities to start with.

Edit : Typo

yumraj3• 7 years ago

Blind idealism/pacifism will wipe out countries/races/societies.

India didn't choose it's neighbors, but it is what it is. On one side is a country whose identity is defined by anti-India-nism. On the other side is China, need I say more. Moreover, both these neighbors are ganged up by their mutual animosity of India.

India doesn't have any options but to make sure there are deterrents in place. It's a necessity.

Abishek_Muthian3• 7 years ago

Blind idealism/pacifism will wipe out countries/races/societies.

I'm sure Mahatma Gandhi & Co had to listen to such statements as well, glad that they didn't listen; Republic of India might not have been even formed otherwise.

guitarbill2• 7 years ago

On one side is a country whose identity is defined by anti-India-nism. On the other side is China, need I say more

Two incredibly low blows, although I suppose this way you've made your isolated point of view very clear.

Moreover, both these neighbors are ganged up by their mutual animosity of India.

Another way of saying this is they've been successful in maintaining strong ties via diplomacy and trade, to the benefit of their peoples.

India doesn't have any options but to make sure there are deterrents in place. It's a necessity.

There have always been options; some of which India has rejected themselves, arguably leading to the souring of other international relations. This weapons test will hopefully lead to condemnations and repercussions, direct or indirect.

For example, I would welcome the IRSO being excluded from further policy-making as part of the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC).

idlewords3• 7 years ago

The Himalayas are a pretty convenient deterrent already.

glax2• 7 years ago

Acting US Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan earlier played down the threat the debris might pose to satellites in space and said it was his understanding the debris would eventually burn up in the atmosphere. Asked on Thursday whether the Pentagon stood by Shanahan's earlier assessment, spokesman Charlie Summers said: "Yes."

So it whose wordings are correct ?

Pentagon or NASA ?

The ASAT test was specifically conducted at the orbit of 380Km less than the maximum range of 100Kms because the residues will gradually decompose within weeks and there will be almost none interference to existing or upcoming orbital paths.

The Micro satellite was specifically chosen for this purpose. There is no reason for Nationalism in this.

craftyguy• 7 years ago

Acting US Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan

Why would a former Beoing executive, who has had nothing to do with Beoing's space-related ventures in his 30 years there, know anything about orbital mechanics?

the Pentagon stood by Shanahan's earlier assessment

Why would anyone at the pentagon who wanted to keep their job/position publicly release a conflict with a statement from their upper management?

Abishek_Muthian3• 7 years ago

US DOD was informed prior ASAT test & their non objection stems in we being their strategic partner.

It doesn't mean the number of debris in higher apogee or the their probability to cause harm is false(how ever low the probability might be). Anyone can verify the same, if they have the means.

NASA is answerable to public & that they did. Just like our ISRO is.

I see many, including media confusing between ISRO & DRDO in this context. DRDO was the one which conducted the ASAT test, even if ISRO was involved somehow it shouldn't be advertised; just like how NASA's involvement in any US defence related activity is contained.

The term 'peaceful space exploration' exists for a reason.

qbaqbaqba• 7 years ago

Blind nationalism would deter our progress as a species.

Blind nationalism has fueled our progress as a species.

LargoLasskhyfv• 7 years ago

Let's all reminisce about https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_West_Ford @ http://stuffin.space/?intldes=1963-014AA&search=westford and hope for some really magic fairy dust sprinkling brighter through the light shine of our frozen cityscape hells.

ronsor• 7 years ago

It was obvious that blowing up things in orbit is a bad idea.

petre2• 7 years ago

The military abounds with bad ideas.

CodeSheikh• 7 years ago

After conducting such tests what was India’s plan to remove such debris? Just because “they did it why can’t we do it?” rationale is not to support this act. They should be hold accountable.

mritun• 7 years ago

“They should be held accountable “.

Yeah, India should be held accountable to the same degree that others 3 were held to.

faiz7412• 7 years ago

Be cautious of the stupid. That's all.

http://www.zoon.cc/stupid/

cm21872• 7 years ago

What I don't get is that not only the surface in question is enormous (even more vast than the oceans), but also in 3d (think tens of thousands of layers of ocean surface). How can a few dozen 10cm debris be such a big deal? They may be deadly if a collision occur but how likely is such a collision?

knolan2• 7 years ago

So a volume?

These are several hundred objects travelling with enough momentum to do catastrophic damage to launch vehicles and other orbiting equipment. They’re not icebergs floating on the ocean, they’re bullets whizzing through that volume at incredible velocities.

Would you get on a plane if every airport runway doubled as an active shooting range?

cm21872• 7 years ago

A runway is a tiny place. My point is that we are talking about an immense amount of space.

drewrobb• 7 years ago

One aspect you miss in your analogy is that when you include the time dimension, the probability of a collision is proportional to swept volume (and thus speed), rather than static volume. So while the space is really large, really fast objects can have substantially large swept volumes.

glax2• 7 years ago

Pentagon says debris from India’s ASAT expected to burn up in atmosphere [0]:

https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/mission-shakti-pentago...

everyone• 7 years ago

Anyone who works in space here have any ideas on how feasible they reckon this Raytheon Space Debris Elimination (SpaDE) technique is?

https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/atoms/files/niac_20...

angel_j• 7 years ago

This is plastic in the ocean for earth's orbit. We'll never be able to remove the debris. It's only a small amount now, but give it a few hundred years...

marcosdumay2• 7 years ago

but give it a few hundred years...

A few hundred years is how long things stay on those orbits.

Dylan168072• 7 years ago

Replace 'years' with 'days' for this one.

brij0102• 7 years ago

Maybe the illustrious members of HN should stick to their strengths and come up with a technological solution to the following two: - how can a nation achieve equivalent ability as this without actually destroying a satellite - how can such debris be rendered harmless

Low-earth orbit satellites threatened by debris from Indian anti-satellite test

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