We need to be wary of narratives of economic catastrophe

https://aeon.co/ideas/why-we-need-to-be-wary-of-narratives-of-economic-catastrophe

by jonbaer • 8 years ago

34 46 8 years ago

danmaz74• 8 years ago

It's a long but worthwhile reading; a TL;DR for those who don't have the time: excessive optimism and excessive pessimism are both bad for us; we need to go back to building narratives that include complex solutions for complex global(ised) problems, which is something that we were able to do in the past - after all, we went through much worse periods (eg the 1930s, WWII) and the World didn't end.

Personal comment: I can relate very much to this, but I also find that building those complex narratives - or even finding them - is incredibly difficult. I don't know how much this difficulty is related to the new media landscape (especially social media), but the net effect is that, apparently, only simple solutions (which will never work) seem to be gaining steam.

dhh2106• 8 years ago

It's hard to build up to complex solutions when we (society, broadly defined) seem unable to agree on the basic facts.

I don't know for sure if the past was better or worse when it came to reporting the truth. Given the limited number of news outlets, radio stations and tv stations historically, there were at least a limited set of reporting to agree on (independent of the accuracy of that reporting). This was probably very helpful in enabling more complex solutions.

douglaswlance• 8 years ago

The problem is that both sides of any big issue think they have the "facts" and refuse to compromise or engage with the facts from the other side.

The list of objective facts regarding any major issue is short. The list of subjective facts is infinite. When anyone can blast the world with their subjective facts, the objective facts are lost in the noise.

ahje• 8 years ago

100 years ago, mass media was still in it's infancy. They had printed media and occasional radio coverage and in many parts of the world media was extremely regulated. Now, we have a large number of different channels with much less regulation, and many more people with their own agendas.

Every complex solution will add an additional layer of complexity on top of everything, thereby making the problem worse. If society, as a whole, becomes so complex that the processes that keep it rolling are no longer transparent, then we'd end up in a situation where we can't see the forest for the trees.

re_wwii• 8 years ago

  much worse periods

It’s worth looking at those periods, to understand that economic, financial, social, cultural factors brought people into that period, and changes in technology, radical advancements caused unexpected results.

Do pay attention to that.

ThomPete7• 8 years ago

That doesn't sound right to me.

I just read "The end of Alchemy" which goes through the history of our financial system and how it came to be and it doesn't sound like we historically were any better off. So not sure exactly what they are referring to with regards to these narratives.

Furthermore, I wouldn't agree that complex solutions are needed for complex problems unless we talk technically.

A big part of the issues we are having is that the policies we do have are so complex that they can be used by those who have enough money to speculate and interpret against the intent of the laws.

If anything we need simple rules and a system of ongoing interpretation on top which ensures that interpretations the law stay within the spirit of the law.

Also it wasn't a long read at all :)

renholder• 8 years ago

...we need to go back to building narratives that include complex solutions for complex global(ised) problems...

Whilst I agree, one thing that the author doesn't address is that people were very worried after the collapse of the market (Reconstruction), after WWII (the spread of communism, McCarthysim), and other such calamities.

The difference betwixt those times and now is fundamentality societally-based and the nature of the calamity.

Almost no one works at a company for twenty years, anymore; which means reliance on things like 401ks (in the states). When the crash hit in 2008, it wiped a large portion (if not almost all) of their life's savings. So, for people to be especially worried going forward isn't without merit.

The problem is that the complex solutions, these days, haven't even considered, much less addressed, the working class heroes.

I cannt blame people, one bit, for being more prone to being receptive to the narratives of another economic collapse; especially, if you've ascribed your personal losses to not listening the first go-round.

Of course, most countries came up with differing solutions for the crash, and that's one thing to consider: Even though the impact was global, the response was more local (country versus world). Iceland, for example, jailed the bankers[0]. The states bailed them out[1].

I don't have an answer and I don't even presume to begin to have a notion of what to do; however, telling people that they should just wait for a complex solution isn't going to go very far, when the solutions proferred so far haven't positively affected them in the slightest.

(Apologies for the rant.)

[0] https://www.huffingtonpost.com/stefan-simanowitz/iceland-has...

[1] https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikecollins/2015/07/14/the-big-...

gruez• 8 years ago

When the crash hit in 2008, it wiped a large portion (if not almost all) of their life's savings. So, for people to be especially worried going forward isn't without merit.

only if they panic sold. if they held for a few more years, they would have recovered most, if not all of their losses.

api• 8 years ago

We need to be wary of narratives.

FabHK• 8 years ago

Well, narratives are enormously powerful. We need to be wary of false narratives; it might well be that we must employ narratives to communicate with everyone that doesn't have the time, patience, or otherwise capacity to dig through statistics and do a proper analysis.

ThomPete7• 8 years ago

All narratives are false sooner or later. I think that's the parents' point.

No narrative last forever. The globalist narrative for instance is now finding it's limited.

MikeTaylor• 8 years ago

As a Brit, I find it weird to see an article about economic catastrophe that doesn't even mention Brexit: the world's first self-inflicted economic omnicatastroshambles.

ThomPete7• 8 years ago

Probably because it would fall in the too extreme negative narrative.

sveme2• 8 years ago

What brings you to this assessment? Your gut feeling? Just came across this: https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1087425506931294209 today, that would be pretty serious indeed for a country that relies on so much imported food.

Edit: Ah, sneak edit. Carry on.

ARandomerDude• 8 years ago

the world's first

Unless applied to technological advancement, this statement is usually false. Human behavior is astonishingly repetitive.

whatok• 8 years ago

It's not the first self-inflicted and won't be the last.

dublo7• 8 years ago

I wouldn't call it self inflicted with all the Russian social media trolling other countries. It's just pushed a bit past the tipping point.

ausbah• 8 years ago

I feel like in our attempt to predict the next recession we'll inadvertently end up causing one / cause it to occur earlier, but maybe that's just inevitable

purplethinking• 8 years ago

I'd say the opposite. As long as everyone remains vigilant and looking for catastrophe in every shadow we should be less likely to have another 2008 sneak up on us.

rchaud2• 8 years ago

What makes you think you or I have any say in this?

Recessions happen naturally as part of the business cycle, but are exacerbated by risky practices at major financial institutions that take on insanely leveraged bets in order to churn out a tiny profit that when summed up, becomes a huge profit.

The problem is that when average people go to political representatives to push for regulation of the markets, they are drowned out by corporate lobbyists who fill reps' pockets and fill the airwaves talking about and "class envy" and "socialist takeover".

zanny• 8 years ago

There was plenty of forecasted doom and gloom in 2005-2006. It was still an extreme minority, as it is now, and when the next recession comes it will blindside most people all the same. Remember how many more don't have any savings and are living paycheck to paycheck today than before 08.

themark• 8 years ago

I have noticed the words recession and housing crash in the news a lot lately. It is almost as if some people are hoping for it.

hevi_jos• 8 years ago

That is because some people are hoping for it, in particular, home buyers.

If the price os something goes too high, it is a good thing that it goes down to levels in which they are affordable again for those that need it for living on them and not for speculating.

kamaal2• 8 years ago

Depends on what kind of a life phase you are in. If you are doing insanely well at this point in time, a recession would reset and good days could come to an end.

If you are having a bad time already, you would be hoping for a some turnaround moment to see if it changes anything.

Basically its the It will pass frustration/joy applied to scenarios. If you are having a good time now, being told It will pass will likely sadden you. If you are having a bad time, being told It will pass will cheer you up.

JohnJamesRambo• 8 years ago

The market has set a record for the longest bull run in history. It would be naive and neglect the history of markets to expect that to continue. That's just not how markets work.

moorhosj• 8 years ago

==It is almost as if some people are hoping for it.==

It's also possible that the data is implying it. Not everything needs to be a conspiracy.

We need to be wary of narratives of economic catastrophe

Related Stories