Kalashnikov’s new autonomous weapons and the “Terminator conundrum”

http://newatlas.com/kalashnikov-ai-weapon-terminator-conundrum/50576/?li_source=LI&li_medium=default-widget

by edward • 9 years ago

56 91 9 years ago

pulse7• 9 years ago

Sad truth: it WILL be secretly developed with or without ban... We just discovered yet another self-destruction method... In Smalltalk you could destroy everything with: "Smalltalk become: nil"

enord3• 9 years ago

Application of unrefined AI in the context of deadly machinery is a real and immediate AI-danger. Self-refining, wolrd-dominating AI is at present time just a distraction from this.

Anderkent• 9 years ago

Not really, the stakes are completely different. Robot armies might change warfare and balance of state power. They're not going to threaten humanity as a whole.

dogma1138• 9 years ago

It's not about threatening humanity it's about threathening humans.

I agree with the GP I always said that a dumb AI with sufficient agency in the real world is much scarier now me than some super intelligence.

The former is much more likely to be realized and it already has to some extent and unlike the latter cannot be reasoned with.

enord3• 9 years ago

Pray tell, how should AI threaten humanity as a whole without a robot army (or some other deadly embodiment)?

ClassyJacket2• 9 years ago

It can be worrying to think that aowrson could right now mount a gun to a drone and have it point at things it thinks look like people and shoot.

Then I remember that with any amount of technology they could just kill me themselves. Getting hit by a car is a much bigger risk, and the application of AI to prevent that is a much larger positive than the negatives AI introduces.

enord3• 9 years ago

This remains to be seen. It might be, I don't necessarily disbelieve it, but general handwaving about applying AI to solve a problem is just that.

dahoramanodoceu• 9 years ago

That must mean you are not in a middle eastern country. It's self centered to only have concern for your own well-being and myopic to think that, in a world full of self-centered people, with this tech being mass produced, that you'll continue living in a northern-atlantic utopia, where the probable causes of untimely death remain unchanged.

pjc50• 9 years ago

You've forgotten the logistics chain. A "hostile" AI without any human support is going to run out of fuel, ammo or spares very very quickly.

The real threat from AI is automated colonialism. An empire where the people running it never have to get their hands dirty or face rebellion from troops suffering from post-atrocity PTSD. Send in the killbots followed by corpse disposal Roombas. No (human) witnesses.

greendestiny_re• 9 years ago

A "hostile" AI without any human support is going to run out of fuel, ammo or spares very very quickly.

How about an AI that convinces the humanity to build it an army of androids and then wages war against its creators? Dibs on the idea!

eb0la2• 9 years ago

I guess there will be a market soon for adversarial camouflage clothing in order to hide from roboweapons.

In fact I should be writing a business plan for that business now.

chrisan• 9 years ago

It also may be a good time to invest in EMP manufacturers

kbart3• 9 years ago

It's hard to hide from IR using insulating clothes, because of the heat building up inside. But an insulating suit with active cooling might be an interesting idea to explore.

tormeh• 9 years ago

You don't need to hide, you just need to look like something other than a human.

RobertoG3• 9 years ago

I think the grandparent plan is not to hide from the sensors, but from the "mind" behind it.

qilo• 9 years ago

it seems metallic "invisibility cloak" is quite effective: https://media.ccc.de/v/33c3-8238-retail_surveillance_retail_...

rjsw• 9 years ago

It seems to be already being tested [1].

[1] https://twitter.com/GrantTurnbull_/status/890513588787572737

mathieubordere• 9 years ago

This cannot end well.

ricardobeat• 9 years ago

We're moving a bit too fast... three years ago this was still science fiction: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=e9xqdoDc3oI

vanderZwan2• 9 years ago

I was expecting this classic scene from Robocop:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hzlt7IbTp6M

PhantomGremlin2• 9 years ago

I'm sure it's only a glitch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZFvqDaFpXeM

adzicg• 9 years ago

instead of WWII films with people hiding in mud for a tank to pass by so they could stick a bomb on it, we'll get WWIII films with people hiding in mud with an ethernet cable

rimliu• 9 years ago

Oh, you reminded me of that horrible horrible TV Series "Scorpion". Could not get past the second episode and watched the second only too see how much more stupid can it get.

zimpenfish• 9 years ago

Was that the one where they were driving under a plane to hack it?

PhantomGremlin2• 9 years ago

I haven't seen it.

But it couldn't be worse than the Independence Day movie from 1996. In that one, the aliens have huge ships; the mothership has one fourth the mass of the moon. Fortunately, Jeff Goldblum figures out how to upload a computer virus into the mothership. My memory of the plot is kind of sketchy, since I certainly wasn't tempted to see it again. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independence_Day_(1996_film)#P...

Cthulhu_2• 9 years ago

Flashbacks of Arnold in Predator now. DO IT NOOWWWW!

chroem-• 9 years ago

I'm curious if the author would also refer to the M4 carbine as an "infamous killing machine," given the opportunity.

The fact of the matter is that the US is also developing these systems, albeit with more focus on autonomous air combat vehicles. To say that this is a Russia-only problem vastly understates how serious of an issue this is.

RobertoG3• 9 years ago

But it's not the same, the article makes it clear here:

"Known informally inside the corridors of the Pentagon as 'the Terminator conundrum,' the question being asked is whether stifling the development of these types of weapons would actually allow other less ethically minded countries to leap ahead?"

As a not American, I feel totally safe when it's the ethically minded USA who does it.

Yep. That was sarcasm, sorry.

candiodari2• 9 years ago

That was the question until the Kalashnikov announcement.

Now the question is, "given that everybody from Putin, to terrorists, Maduro, and North Korea have these weapons, do you want the US government facing them without such weapons ?"

In an arms race, you can perhaps refuse to pull ahead (even that is risky), but nothing good will come of falling behind.

lmm3• 9 years ago

The M4 isn't infamous though? I don't even know which one that is. The M-16 is famous but associated more with militaries than with guerillas or terrorists. I can't really think of a US-made weapon with a reputation for disreputable uses - maybe the "Tommy Gun" (associated with gangsters, at least in the popular imagination)?

Grangar3• 9 years ago

How about the Predator drone?

throwanem4• 9 years ago

The M4 and M16 are both versions of Eugene Stoner's AR-15 design. You know which one that is, even if you don't know you know it. Think about the last movie you saw that was made since 1980 and included American soldiers. What rifle were they carrying? There you go.

There also exist many AR-15-pattern rifles in the civilian market - obviously without the full-auto and burst-fire modes one finds in military models, but otherwise quite similar. They're generally satisfactory firearms - cheap to feed, not unpleasant to use or overly difficult to maintain.

They're also a longstanding bête noire of the anti-guns crowd, among whom the type is infamous because people have used them in a few mass shootings, and also because if you're afraid of firearms already then this type looks super extra scary - dressed in full tacticool ribs and Picatinny, it looks like something a Terminator might carry, and they're usually finished in black.

maxerickson• 9 years ago

Perhaps no single US made weapon has gained such a reputation because there are so many to choose from?

There's a category for cheap, small-caliber pistols, "Saturday night special".

jeff_petersen• 9 years ago

Perhaps the AR-18 would fit, the IRA were big fans

wmil2• 9 years ago

It's a high reliability, low maintenance weapon. As a result the AK-47 is the weapon of choice for poorly trained armies.

That gives it a worse reputation than most other rifles.

marblar• 9 years ago

Serious question: why would a non-poorly trained army select a more maintenance-heavy weapon? Would it have other benefits?

arethuza2• 9 years ago

In what tactical scenarios would an autonomous mobile heavy machine gun make sense? Urban warfare against lightly armed opponents?

kbart3• 9 years ago

"Kill everything that moves" scenarios. Like during Chechnya wars.

walshemj2• 9 years ago

From the pics it looks like some of these are HMG mounts I could see Tanks and EVFs having an Ai controlled secondary turrets to reduce crew size. The Soviets did like multi turreted tanks see the T35

arethuza2• 9 years ago

So like a progression of the protection systems that some MBTs already have?

That doesn't sound quite as bad or threatening - although probably very bad news for anyone trying to take on such a vehicle at close range!

konart3• 9 years ago

Things like BMPT-72 Terminator 2 (yeah, T2, really https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BMPT_Terminator) are planned to be semi- or fully-automonous is the near future.

So - tank support (instead of sending infantry), clearing missions when you don't really care - just shoot everything that moves, defence turrets like this one - https://www.techcult.ru/content/2016/3690/robot-chasovoj-FLf....

I'd say using autonomous machine gun on a light truck might be useful - no need for a human to risk his life, not to mention this thing will have better aim.

wisty• 9 years ago

A dictator could put one on every street corner.

FRex5• 9 years ago

Area denial that is more humane, more visible and easier to remove than landmines are?

atemerev2• 9 years ago

To put some context: we Russians always preferred automated systems to having humans in the loop — we have a lot of history with particularly prominent examples of less than fully sane humans in the loop, without proper checks and balances to restrain them.

So I am absolutely not surprised of the development, and we'll see much more instances of these systems soon. The only good part is that Russians strongly dislike complicated control systems, so the "AI" in question will be much simpler than what would Americans do.

RobertoG3• 9 years ago

You have history of good examples of humans in the loop, too:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanislav_Petrov

FRex5• 9 years ago

Russians' dislike for complicated systems sounds very good but I hope it will have humans watching over it too. There were already many close calls and accidents (some fatal) due to computer and programming errors in both civilian and military systems.

Case in point: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Soviet_nuclear_false_alar... if it wasn't for Stanislav Petrov the world might have ended back then.

hyperdunc• 9 years ago

Humans design, program and service these automated systems. They're still in the loop.

sharemywin• 9 years ago

Can't wait for the new "hot updates from the cloud feature"

atemerev2• 9 years ago

No need. We have first-year privates with USB sticks instead. (And our USB sticks are, of course, plug-in incompatible with Western USB sticks, and weigh at least 15 kilograms, which greatly aids security).

baybal2• 9 years ago

Fully automatic shoot-to-kill sentry guns are nothing new, and were used at least since eighties. Patent in Russian http://www.findpatent.ru/patent/237/2373483.html

jlebrech• 9 years ago

building something like that with rubber bullets would be cheaper than THE wall

trevyn• 9 years ago

Why would Kalashnikov choose to do a dog and pony show? Is it like the North Korean missle parades and a show of power for Russia? Do they just plain up sell these to certain countries and it's just like any other product launch? Does Kalashnikov have competitors that they are trying to look better than?

Cthulhu_2• 9 years ago

Because they're a business and appearing on a trade show is one of the ways they do marketing?

konart3• 9 years ago

we have NEVER caught the Russians doing ANYTHING beneficial for the Human Race. EVER.

These comments though.

FRex5• 9 years ago

Many Russians did plenty of good but their governments are always so awful.

konart3• 9 years ago

Not always. See Peter I or Alexander II. Anyways - bad governments have nothing to do with the contribution of the nation.

vanderZwan2• 9 years ago

I'm not sure what I find more worrying, this, or the other end of the scale: the inevitability that it becomes technically easier and easier to turn cheap small autonomous drones into killing machines.

agumonkey• 9 years ago

Maybe man will inadvertently create its own predators ..

jpttsn• 9 years ago

Today, an opponent would try to fire back at the killing machine's "pilot," is that right?

With these weapons, the only defense is shooting at the machine itself, breaking it.

That reduces your chance of stealing the killing machine after taking out its pilot.

throwanem4• 9 years ago

Today, an opponent would try to fire back at the killing machine's "pilot," is that right?

If you're dealing with an armored vehicle, you're shooting at the vehicle. You can't shoot at the people operating it, because the armor is in the way. If you don't have anything to hand that can deal with the armor, you find something else to do instead. If you do have something that fits the bill, it's not going to leave the vehicle in an operable state after you use it.

Killing the crew of an IFV or tank during a combat engagement, and then stealing the vehicle, is something that happens in movies and video games - in real life, not so much.

FRex5• 9 years ago

I read that there have been cases of poorly briefed Ukrainian tank crews escaping and leaving behind tanks that had huge holes in armor despite the armor working as intended and preventing damage to anything important and tank still being fully operational.

Separatists took these over and patched/replaced the broken armor piece and used them.

It might all have been bullshit though and I can't find that article from years ago(and it wasn't in English anyway).

dalbasal• 9 years ago

There are two significant parts (IMO) to the trend towards autonomous weapons. They're very different.

This article seems mostly concerned with autonomous/AI controlled decision making: picking targets and firing on them.

The 2nd part taking combatants out of the battlefield. This is more significant, IMO. This applies equally to autonomous & remote operated weapons. For thousands of years, fighting wars meant endangering soldiers. As this changes, all sorts of dynamics change, and conflicts may become more

Think of drones. Whatever the tactical implications, I think the strategic implications have been more important. The US is willing to deploy remote operated drones in scenarios where they would not have committed troops, even airforce only.

kofejnik• 9 years ago

Look, you have to understand something: in Russia, human life has no intrinsic value at all, so it's not a conundrum in any way. New weapon can kill more people, all by itself? Great, bring more of those!

If you don't believe me, just read up on Russian history. Maybe start with Ukrainian genocide in 1932-33.

Grangar3• 9 years ago

And other arms manufacturing countries are different from this how..?

Sommersonn• 9 years ago

For starters, they're not trying to kill their own citizens by millions. Except North Korea maybe.

throw2016• 9 years ago

There is a certain inevitability about this. It will and should make many uneasy but like everything else autonomous weapons will advance.

Constraints have only worked so far for bio-chemical weapons and even there we don't know who is doing what. Nuclear weapons are easier to restrict because some sort of control can be effected on the underlying technology.

The only thing with both the above is the cost of using them is too high, only one country has used nuclear weapons against a population and it remains an unconscionable blot for many of us.

Autonomous weapons are much more accessible and will be integrated into modern conflict and law enforcement, shifting the balance in many scenarios.

throwawaymanbot• 9 years ago

I cant help but feel that the military and its money sucking contractors are in for HUGE disruption.

Why even have a military. Just keep a few special forces and augment the rest with Autonomous/AI gadgets such as these.

Sell your defense shares.

smsm42• 9 years ago

Reading the article:

In the imminent future, the Group will unveil a range of products based on neural networks," said Sofiya Ivanova, the Group's Director for Communications. "A fully automated combat module featuring this technology is planned to be demonstrated at the Army-2017 forum,

So there's no actual product yet, and there's nothing known about the future one except that there are "neural networks" involved, whatever it means. Clearly, there's enough information to make wide-ranging speculations!

Kalashnikov’s new autonomous weapons and the “Terminator conundrum”

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