Estimate for number of books sold per Kindle: 27

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0AnyXnkmypIPBdGM5RUpPTW1Bckh6M3FMM0hJendYRUE&hl=en&single=true&gid=0&output=html

by vtail • 16 years ago

49 43 16 years ago

spreadsheets.google.com

vtail6• 16 years ago

I made this estimate as a follow-up for this discussion: http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1315149. Please suggest how to make this more accurate, and whether you believe the assumptions above.

pwhelan• 16 years ago

I think a problem is that people will initially load up on apps and books when they first purchase something. I think I bought 7 books when I got my KindleDX in Jan. I have a few more on there already. However, the initial burst of the iPad sales and the sustained KindleDX sales numbers are incomparable at this point imho (unless you can get the data for the Kindle right after it came out?)

I wonder if there is a way to put in the newspaper & magazine that Kindle readers are getting -- though I am at work and my laptop is broken.

Interesting discussion, I plan to monitor closely.

malloreon2• 16 years ago

When I owned my Kindle, I had about 80 books on it. I'd paid for 2 of them, "Les Miserables" and "The Count of Monte Cristo."

The rest I got by combing the top sellers list and "buying" all the books listed as free.

vtail6• 16 years ago

Well, do you know that both of these books are available for free? http://www.gutenberg.org/ and http://calibre-ebook.com/ are your friends.

papachito• 16 years ago

Came here to post just that. Both of these books are very old and as such did fall under the public domain a while ago. One of the biggest advantage of ebooks is that you can get public domain books for free. I don't understand why would anyone buy them.

sliverstorm• 16 years ago

Sometimes I'd rather pay $0.99 for an e-book that is formatted well than acquire it for free in a messy unfriendly e-book.

malloreon2• 16 years ago

I did find them for free, but not until later. I suddenly had a hankering to read each book, and $2 total ended up being an acceptable spend.

sh1mmer• 16 years ago

I have a lot of free book but a lot of paid ones too.

I bought everything written by Terry Pratchett via Amazon and maybe 30 books from O'Reilly direct from them.

ctingom• 16 years ago

You have to keep in mind the Kindle has been out for a long time. Why would people buy 27 books on the iPad when they have not had it for more than a month?

vtail6• 16 years ago

Yes, that's a fair comment. Anecdotally, though, I bought a dozen or so books in the very first week - that's why the iBooks number looks so low to me.

andreyf• 16 years ago

Are you a very fast reader, or did you buy them to read later? I suspect people will buy books as they finish reading them... hence, comparing books sold on iPad/Kindle isn't indicative of anything.

ywgdana• 16 years ago

I wonder if that is in part due to there being so much else to do on the iPad. When you buy a Kindle, I imagine you spend a bunch of time in the book store going, "Hmm...I'll grab this, and that, and that..."

Whereas on the iPad you have books to browse (Kindle store, Apple's store). Apps to download and play with. Music to listen to, videos to watch.

johnswamps• 16 years ago

USD 800M seems pretty high for their sales, especially considering: "At the same time, Amazon.com, seller of the Kindle e-book reading device, may boost digital book sales by 83 percent this year to $248 million from $135 million last year, the analysts said in a note today"

vtail6• 16 years ago

That's a valid point, although you should note that 800M is a gross number; what Amazon may report in their digital book sales is just their 30% share of the sell.

I clearly need to investigate it some more.

waxman• 16 years ago

Does books purchased over a 3-year timespan have any relevance to books purchased over a 30-day timespan? Unlike other kinds of purchases, most people usually consume books relatively slowly (at a rate of one per month or more). If your Kindle is 2 years old, 27 books per 24 months is roughly equivalent to the iPad's numbers...

Also, can anyone who owns/uses both an iPad and a Kindle chime in on how the reading experience differs between the two?

All I've heard is the obvious: that the iPad interface is slicker, but the Kindle is much better in direct sunlight.

I had a first-gen Kindle, and a Kindle DX. I've purchased maybe 20 books, but I've grown to despise the Kindle. It's interface is terrible; anything other than a book on it is miserable (newspaper, magazine article, etc.). I can't wait to get an iPad...

vtail6• 16 years ago

These were annual figures. I figured out that average Kindle ownership time is about a year assuming growing sales.

markkanof• 16 years ago

I had a Kindle DX (which I sold recently) and currently have an iPad.

Since you said to skip the obvious I will just comment on the actual experience of using the two devices. Theoretically I should love the Kindle, far more than the iPad, but in reality it just doesn't work that way. The Kindle has an e-ink display which is easier on the eyes than an LCD, it's very light and compact, it has free cellular internet access (WhisperNet), etc.

In reality though, I found the Kindle to be clunky. The screen is very slow to refresh which makes skimming or searching through a book almost impossible. The web browser ends up being nothing more than a toy, it can certainly render sites correctly, but you can't do anything interactive and even clicking on a link can end up taking dozens of clicks depending on the location on the page.

In contrast the iPad is a joy to use. Everything basically works like you would expect it to. The screen looks great and is easy to read on. Especially with the Kindle app where you can switch to white text on black background. It's maybe not quite as good as e ink, but close enough. I'm certainly not trying to claim that the iPad is a perfect device. What I am trying to say though is that the iPad is a good enough book reading device, and it blows the Kindle away in many other aspects, so in the end the Kindle went up for sale and I haven't missed it.

rdl2• 16 years ago

The iPad (which I've ordered but don't have yet) is heavier than the DX, and needs to be charged a lot more frequently (especially if you leave wireless off on the DX). I think that would take it from "book replacement" to "another phone-like device", where I need to worry about charging it every 1-2 days.

My plan is to just carry both, though.

patio11• 16 years ago

Unlike other kinds of purchases, most people usually consume books relatively slowly (at a rate of one per month or more).

Do you know many women in the 30 to 50 range? Find one who reads romance novels or urban fantasy (cough romance novels with vampires in them). I will bet you that a conversation with her about how many books she reads will greatly change your estimate of the behavior of "most people."

Anecdotally, from what I've seen in customer reviews, Amazon is making huge inroads with Kindles in that sort of core customer segment.

I'm also a bit of an outlier: I just picked up my 78th, 79th, and 80th books in the last 2 days, having had my Kindle since October.

runevault• 16 years ago

There are people like that sure, but at one point I saw a rather depressing statistic that each american household probably averaged something really low (this article says 4/year in 2007)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/08...

Mind you I probably average between 15 and 20 books most years, some going 30+ depending, so I know I'm a total outlier in that respect.

ashishbharthi• 16 years ago

27 books per kindle looks kind of unrealistic. I have own kindle for last 6 months and I have bought only 3 books and few free ones. I have also bought few printed editions because they are not available on kindle.

dgabriel2• 16 years ago

Maybe, but I've downloaded about 30 books since Christmas. Many were free; I only paid money for 12.

jauer• 16 years ago

I've had a Kindle for about a year and a half and have over 80 paid books.

I read a lot of books and the Kindle paid for itself in savings on books in a few months.

rimantas• 16 years ago

I have already bought 15 book at Kindle Store, and I don't even own a Kindle—I read them on the iPhone and my Macs. I am really looking forward to get iPad—Kindle for iPad looks much nicer than their Mac version.

dpritchett• 16 years ago

Same here. The Kindle app was what convinced me to upgrade from a Touch to an iPhone. Above all else I use it as a reader.

The GoodReader app is my preferred reader for .PDFs such as the MEAP edition of Joy of Clojure.

tbgvi• 16 years ago

That does seem a bit high but I wouldn't say that it's impossible. If someone is going to spend hundreds on a device that's meant soley for reading, they probably read a lot of books.

Anecdotally, I just got an iPad and bought 3 books I've been meaning to read for a while. Before that, I hadn't bought a book in months. In a way it's like the app store but for books - looking for and buying a book was so easy that I'll probably buy more than if I had to go to the store every time.

Terretta• 16 years ago

Does anyone have a reference for Amazon's percentage of physical book sales in the US?

rdl2• 16 years ago

I have a Kindle (bought 1 when it first came out, gave a 2 as a gift, now DX); plus kindle app on an ipod touch and on mac. iPad is enroute. Eagerly awaiting an Android app.

I have about ~150 books paid for (maybe more? I see 10 pages with 15 items per page). 1-2 books per week are consumed, but I tend to buy 5-10 at a time.

pjhyett• 16 years ago

The Kindle hasn't increased the amount of books I purchase, but I do find myself subscribing to far more publications because of how trivial it is to do on the device. Never again will I wait seven weeks to receive the first issue of a magazine.

zweben• 16 years ago

I don't think you can really draw any useful information about how much people prefer each device for reading by comparing the average number of books sold per device.

Everyone who buys a Kindle buys it to read books on. Some people who buy iPads don't care about e-books at all. That doesn't say anything about its capability as an e-reader, it just means that the device appeals to a wider audience.

mike4632• 16 years ago

This post and all the replies are full of misconceptions.

I suspect the average book price is way off.

I have 98 digital books in my kindle library.

My average book price for the 98 books was $3.46.

39 books were free.

The average book price for my non-free books was $5.87.

As far as kindle vs iPad, I have both.

The kindle is MUCH better for actual reading. It's possible when you're 10 years old that you can read novels by moonlight, but as you get older having a well-lit book is a much better experience.

Reading on the kindle, with a bright light over your shoulder is wonderful.

The kindle does have a clunky interface, but I don't have to use it much. I usually peruse books in the amazon store on my computer (or sometimes on my iphone).

I can buy and send it to my kindle in one click.

But mostly, I send books to my kindle using the "send sample" feature. I don't buy books until I'm sure I want to buy them. I send a sample. Then when I go to my kindle, there's a big queue of books that might or might not be interesting. I start reading them, and if I like it I get to the end of the sample and click the buy button they embedded there.

Oh, one more thing -- in the beginning I got a lot of free books for my kindle. My library is now cluttered up with a bunch of books that seemed good at the time, but now I can't get rid of.

In the end, the kindle may have a clunky interface, but it excels at being a book. It's my preferred way to read.

I also have an iPad, and it's just not as good a reading experience for text. You can see the pixels in the characters, and the LCD display isn't as easy to read. I'm sure apple will remedy this going forward as their display gets brighter and higher-resolution. However, I don't know if it can get as good as the kindle with a good reading light. The iPad will never compare to the kindle in sunlight.

However, the iPad excels with color or animated books. For example, the kids books for the iPad are wonderful (look at the free Alice in Wonderland or Toy Story books). For textbooks, I can imagine it can only get better, maybe redefining what a book is. I can imagine physics textbooks with built-in calculations, graphing and demonstrations. The line between app and book is getting pretty fuzzy.

wwortiz2• 16 years ago

Just so you know you can get rid of the free books by moving the clicking thing to the left (or maybe right) on the book you want to delete an option will come up. I think it is also a menu item as well as being able to remove it by usb. (So long as you are talking about an actual kindle and not on apple things as I have no experience there.)

mike4632• 16 years ago

I meant my library of archived items, not my home screen. (but thanks for the thought!)

crocowhile• 16 years ago

Ah come on, all these assumptions make your numbers worthless. I recently bought a nook: reading my first book on it gave me the same feeling I had when I efirst used an MP3 player. You immediately realize this is the future, it's soooo much better and there is no way back.

The only tragic thing is: publishers didn't realize that yet and the number of books you can buy is still so limited.

stcredzero• 16 years ago

reading my first book on it gave me the same feeling I had when I efirst used an MP3 player. You immediately realize this is the future, it's soooo much better and there is no way back.

Agreed. The ability to highlight a word in iBooks and look up the definition is a new must have for me.

Kilimanjaro• 16 years ago

You buy a kindle to read books. You have to have books. Plenty of them.

You buy an iPad to play games mostly, to surf the web and to read books.

I bet you the iPad has a better ratio of games/iPad than books/kindle.

So, my nailclipper clip my nails and my toothbrush brush my teeth.

benatkin• 16 years ago

I'd like to see a poll of HN users created. But before someone does, it would be nice to figure out a good set of questions.

My suggested format:

1) Do you own an iPad?

1a) How many books have you purchased from the iBookstore?

1b) How many were books that you already own?

1c) How many free books have you got from Apple, other than Winnie The Pooh?

1d) How many books from another source have you transferred to the iPad?

2) Do you own a Kindle or use a Kindle app? (Please specify.)

2a) How many books have you bought from the Kindle store?

2b) How many were books that you already own?

2c) How many free books have you got from the Kindle store?

2d) How many books from another source have you transferred to the Kindle device or app?

3) Did DRM influence your purchasing decisions?

My answers:

1) Do you own an iPad? --> Yes.

1a) How many books have you purchased from the iBookstore? --> 3.

1b) How many were books that you already own? --> 2.

1c) How many free books have you got from Apple, other than Winnie The Pooh? --> 0.

1d) How many books from another source have you transferred to the iPad? --> 8.

2) Do you own a Kindle or use a Kindle app? (Please specify.) --> No.

3) Did DRM influence your purchasing decisions? --> Yes. Very much so.

Estimate for number of books sold per Kindle: 27

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