Ask HN: Predict the future

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12879043

by jfoster • 10 years ago

11 18 10 years ago

news.ycombinator.com

I think it would interesting to hear about what very high likelihood, but still surprising, future events are. Things that you could reason are near-certain, but you mightn't have expected prior to hearing the reasoning.

ericzawo• 10 years ago

I'm 100% convinced self-driving vehicles will be on the road by the end of this decade. I suspect they'll be limited to a specific region (say, California?) at first, or they may even only be limited to service-based vehicles, like semi-trailer trucks.

jfoster3• 10 years ago

Seems quite likely! 2018 seems to be the year to watch; there are multiple companies (Tesla, Google, NuTonomy) with big 2018 plans. Even some of the more traditional car manufacturers (Audi, Volkswagen, GM) have had plans to release something this side of 2020.

Chos893• 10 years ago

Veganism becoming mainstream, shunning people who are not vegan

jfoster3• 10 years ago

How do you reach that conclusion, though? Escalating price of livestock? Shortage of livestock due to climate change? Something else?

Chos893• 10 years ago

Because feeding meat to 9 billion is unsustainable and the only reason we are able to do it now is because of the huge subsidies. It has terrible environmental effects and it's morally wrong since the only reason people still eat meat is the taste and tradition. I expect a huge paradigm shift here. For more information you could watch documentaries like Cowspiracy and Earthlings.

Edit - Obligatory VSK: http://vegansidekick.tumblr.com/image/151486277095

personlurking• 10 years ago

Politically correct culture will be the only thing Generation Z, and all those that come after it, know.

On the positive side, something I'd like to see is a movement where remote workers make the choice to leave the city, in search of healthier, less hectic day-to-day living. That is, to purposefully congregate in the same areas so as to create communities across the globe. As things stand, FB is analagous to the city, whereas the countryside is some FB alternative, but no one tries the latter cause all their friends are in the former.

Mz3• 10 years ago

The future is unwritten and predictions about it are consistently wrong. Making predictions can actually change the course of events.

jfoster3• 10 years ago

I'm asking about the things that can be reasoned. For instance, something I realised a few months ago was that there is no good short term outcome from the US election. If Trump wins, there will be a bit of panic and I suspect markets will get hit. If Clinton wins, Trump will probably cause instability by starting lawsuits, claiming it was rigged, and stirring up his supporters; it could get very nasty.

I accept that publicising a prediction could change the course of things. That's okay.

Mz3• 10 years ago

Fine, I will play.

inimino2• 10 years ago

That's not what I would call solid reasoning, just guessing at some possible outcomes. You could just as easily argue positive short term outcomes for either scenario.

Mz3• 10 years ago

Health insurance as we know it shall become a thing of the past. It will be largely replaced with Direct Primary Care, lower cost wellness services (like vitamin shops, massage therapists and fitness services) and the spreading of good info online. People will learn to Google their symptoms at the early stage and do something to change the course of events rather than waiting until they need medical intervention. Health insurance will persist as mostly covering major calamities -- which is as it should be.

People will start solving large scale problems with highly informed grass roots movements spread largely by internet instead of looking to the government and mega wealthy to fix everything.

Gig work shall be our era's version of The 40 Hour Work Week. It shall put power into the hands of the little guy to live where they want and work as much or as little as they want, giving them lifestyle perks previously only available to the jet set and comfortably well off retirees.

As men and women learn to work alongside each other, birth rates will go down because having a baby will no longer be a woman's primary means to secure a comfortable life for herself.

Men will eventually get a clue and figure out that "male privilege" comes with a serious cost, not just benefits. This will be a tipping point in so-called women's rights as people begin focusing on human rights for all people, including men who currently have money but also die younger than women, die in battle routinely, are frequently estranged from their kids due to the demands of their career, etc.

I am pretty sure I had another one I wanted to list, but it escapes me.

jdmoreira• 10 years ago

I just want to suggest a book that I think is relevant to the topic!

Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction - Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner

NumberCruncher• 10 years ago

And I thought that Southpark is joking about the PC vegan self driving epidemic. I was wrong.

fuqted• 10 years ago

I think that we can basically use more of our bodies than is currently thought. Everything we feel has a biological correlate. Try making yourself feel good. After you get a workout high or some such, try expanding the feeling. You'll notice it's in your gut / abdomen area. This is where a your adrenals, a majority of your serotonin and a good percentage of your dopamine is located. If you can do this with some success, try checking in a mirror and you'll notice that doing this dilates your pupils.

With a few days of practice this kind of thing can get pretty intense. With years of constant use I believe that we can get very dexterous in how we make ourselves feel. I'm curious how this kind of thing can eliminate our thinking with our emotions. This is a major leap from how most of us live our lives, but I don't think it stops there.

The eagle eye is among the strongest in the animal kingdom, with an eyesight estimated at 4 to 8 times stronger than that of the average human. An eagle is said to be able to spot a rabbit 3.2 km away

What do you think the vision of an eagle would be like if it lives its life in a 10x14 room? I'm very curious, but it's evident that it would be terrible compared to where it's at now. Conversely, what do you think a human's vision would be like if he lived a good percentage of his life in the sky?

If you have bad vision like me, try taking out your contacts and sitting where a text is just getting blurry. Now for 30 minutes try to clear your vision. You'll likely notice that at least once, you were able to do it manually (with other times it being more an accident). I've spoken to this with my optometrist and he agrees that a person can teach themselves to correct their vision without the need of corrective lenses.

When we are babies we have much more neurons and synapses than we have as an adult. It's believed that we essentially lose what we don't need. More to the point, we use what we don't use. I believe we may be able to regain these synapses with practice. Over the years, we've only been using as much of our bodies as needed to survive. I think it's evident that we can use more.

I'm curious for some input on this.

meric• 10 years ago

World War 3 and nuclear bomb detonated in civilian area, hyperinflation of US dollar, collapse of social security system, financial destruction of 401Ks through a collapsing financial system, death of 95% of people on this board, all within the next 100 years.

LarryMade2• 10 years ago

Self Driving cars - despite resistance will keep surging in popularity - and self-driving trucks will put yet another blue-collar sector into decline. Catering to the automated travel market will become a new thing.

Drones - expect more eyes in the sky, law enforcement, news, emergency services, etc.

Augmented Reality - totally see this happening - and more https://vimeo.com/166807261 . Ever read the Dream Park series? (Larry Niven/Steven Barnes) Gonna be the future of gaming/sports.

Ask HN: Predict the future

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