Mobile applications, RIP

http://mobileopportunity.blogspot.com/2008/02/mobile-applications-rip.html

by blackswan • 18 years ago

23 21 18 years ago

mobileopportunity.blogspot.com

davidw2• 18 years ago

This is my biggest fear with Hecl. Hecl makes mobile apps easier, putting them within reach of people who aren't Java whizzes, but the web makes it easier still.

However... people are still worried about connection charges, and phones are getting more capable, to the point where you can do some fairly interesting things on them, like with Android.

dualogy• 18 years ago

"people are still worried about connection charges"

Don't count on that for too long. Over here, the web didn't take off on a massive scale with broadband, but with the introduction of flat rate subscriptions. Mobile web flatrates are a reality already. Next, carriers might compete on price for their flat rates. At some point, connections charges might become a non-issue.

apathy2• 18 years ago

My wife's iPhone has free unlimited data, not-free text and mobile-to-land-phone minutes. Guess how she harasses me to pick up our daughter or buy specific groceries?

FWIW, I've rarely seen such a brilliantly executed electronic device in my life. I thought it was outrageously overpriced -- now I'm wondering if it isn't a halfway decent deal for the interface and capabilities of the thing.

I continue to carry the cheapest Motorola piece of shit that will accept my SIM card, but I'd be lying if I said I didn't envy the iPhone.

misterbwong• 18 years ago

Hm. It seems like the mobile space is following the same path as the PC space. Phones (like PC's) are tending more towards thin client status. As soon as Android and Webkit are up to snuff with rich web apps, we will be seeing mobile phones in a whole new light.

gustaf• 18 years ago

Great post!

jamescoops2• 18 years ago

Yeah just develop mobile internet sites - forget the java apps for now

BrandonM2• 18 years ago

Forget the Java apps for now? I would forget them for longer than that. Java is not particularly optimized either for programming or for the OSes of mobile phones, and it's losing market share in the programming world to other language alternatives. If there is a "next mobile language", it will either be something akin to the C/Unix paradigm (where the interface between language and OS/hardware is a thin layer), or it will be high-level enough to be worth its runtime inefficiencies. The best case would be that it would be both, and someone would write a compiler which would convert the latter to the former.

jan_g• 18 years ago

Two words : google android.

At least emulator looks ok, we have yet to see actual devices.

davidw2• 18 years ago

You need something with a decent sandbox.

easy access to low level stuff + convenient contact list + bad sandbox model = virus storm, if you're not careful.

BrandonM2• 18 years ago

What the hell was the point of those charts? I couldn't make this up... he said, "Here's a chart to help explain the situation," then he showed two graphs with no figures on them whatsoever based on data that he pulled out of his ass. Then he spent two paragraphs talking about these charts. He could have just as easily related the same idea without showing pseudocharts.

That gripe aside, the article was quite solid, but it failed to mention the business implications. If a mobile provider was smart enough to open up its devices, create an API for developers, and allow that API to be used for free by any device manufacturer, that provider would see an influx of new devices, app developers, and customers. Other providers, wanting to enable these applications on their network (and maintain their customers) would be forced to open their devices as well, devices with the same API layer. Problem solved; mobile apps everywhere.

Instead, in the US at least, providers continue to try to lock every customer into a two-year contract to keep them from leaving, instead of relying on their quality of service.

mercurio2• 18 years ago

The iphone might yet change this.

apathy2• 18 years ago

The iPhone is driving the change he writes about -- the mobile Web, instead of mobile-specific Java apps (for example).

It strikes me as a colossal ''duh''. Would any of us be here reading this site if Paul Graham hadn't had a similar insight with regards to selling shit (via the Web) in 1995-96?

mercurio2• 18 years ago

I meant native apps on the iphone. A lot of people are looking forward to the SDK.

TheTarquin• 18 years ago

As someone who develops mobile apps for a living targeted at industrial markets, I would amend that headline to read:

"Mobile Consumer Applications, RIP". I'm sure the authors comments are spot-on in the general consumer market (which seems to be his area of expertise), but the custom, industrial mobile app market is alive and well. Admittedly, most of the companies involved are large beasts and move slowly, so I'm still developing for Embedded DOS and older Windows CE versions, but the market is quite healthy.

Mobile applications, RIP

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